• Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK NINE ATS

NFL WEEK NINE 2021


2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK EIGHT

Week Eight Tally: 9 – 6 2021 Overall Tally: 61 – 61

Week Eight Totals 2 – 4 Cumulative Totals: 29 – 19

Weekly Specials 0 – 4 Cumulative Specials: 20 – 12

GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 5 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 3

UPSET SPECIAL 7 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 – 3

PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 49 – 31 PARLAYS 1 – 3


“THIS IS THE BUSINESS WE’VE CHOSEN….”

I recalled the famous Hyman Roth quote after finalizing my Week Eight results. Upon further review, I realized I have nothing in common with The Godfather’s featured Jewish gangster.


Unlike Mr. Roth, none of my friends took a bullet in the eye, nobody’s bringing me a briefcase full of Benjamins, and I have yet to run molasses, or anything else, into Canada—and, hopefully, it’ll be three decades before it hurts when I piss…


I finally have a good overall week, clawing my tally to even on the season, while at the same time going two down on my Totals and goose-egging on my Specials.


I’m glad NFL handicapping is a business I’ve chosen only during football season. Otherwise I might hire an Old Sicilian to smother me with a pillow…


Okay, I’ll stop with the Hyman Roth references…


Let’s start over with a much more timely headline:


AARON RODGERS IS A LYING SACK OF SHIT AND SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF HIMSELF


When any athlete or other celebrity tries to manipulate facts surrounding a major PR blunder they themselves created, it makes me sick—see Barry Bonds, Lance Armstrong, Bill Cosby, et al…


Aaron Rodgers flat out lied to the press answering the query, “Are you vaccinated?” with the semi-wise-assed reply, “I’m immunized.”


Rodgers chose to use the most widely accepted synonym for vaccinated, and the gathered media was, as usual, willing and ready to give a known manipulator—ask Mike McCathy—the benefit of the doubt.


When he got caught red-handed, caught lying about his level of protection, Rodgers thought we forgot—the guy plays a game during which players are routinely slobbering on, jawing with, or being “closely contacted” on nearly every play.


In his self-described diatribe, Rodgers deftly sloughs off his own responsibility, to teammates, the media, and fans onto the shoulders of…wait for it…wait for it…

  • The “Woke Mob”…


…Whining like a snot-nosed bitch about…Wait for it...

  • A “Witch Hunt”…


There is only one word—I won’t write it—that fits Rodgers perfectly, a word offensive to every female I know. Let’s put it this way: Aaron Rodgers obviously…


  • Can’t Understand Normal Thinking…


This smug, self-indulgent narcissist indicts scientific fact because, evidently, he’s very proud of his research skills. He follows rules only if they “make sense to me.”


Aaron Rodgers needs to feel shame because in his impotent attempt to explain his lying and deception he misrepresents those of us who understand vaxxes during a pandemic are a public heath issue—we are all in this together.


Then to sicken things even more he twists reality into pretzel saying Trump was victimized by the left—and it wasn’t until Biden won, that the “entire Left” was for the vaccine.


Rodgers puts the cherry on his delusional cake immediately after showing his love for Trump, when he insipidly moans, this whole thing, “shouldn’t be political.”


Aaron Rodgers needs to do more research on the value of shame.


The NFL and the Packers ought to be red-faced too—if Rodger’s contention that “everyone knew my situation” is accurate.


But, the blame doesn’t stop there


Me, you, us, our society, the society God blessed us with—the same society manipulators like Trump and Rodgers undermine—should be collectively ashamed of giving those blessed with athletic talent, or outsized bank accounts more attention than they ever deserve.


P.S….If you can sit through more than half Rodger’s diatribe moderated by Pat McAfee, have at it. Halfway through—when he quotes MLK--I couldn’t control my gag reflex. Here’s the link:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3jM13A7OEw


GAME OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs, 54 [U]


Well, entry into the Asshole HOF or not, the Packers without Rodgers are average at best—

Check that…


The Packers are below the league average in every offensive stat, even with Rodgers—let me double check…


Yep, in every offensive category—total offense, passing offense, rushing offense, your Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay Packers rank no higher than 17th.


Mr. Immunized rates the 7th best QB rating and the Pack’s defense is top ten. (7th). Their pass defense carries most of that load; the rush defense is average.


Jordan Love, the draft pick that compelled A-A-RAHN to manipulate his way out of Packerland after this season, will get the start against one of the poorest defenses in the NFL.


Green Bay’s stout defense has amassed the NFL’s second best turnover ratio—KC has the worst at -11.


I’m thinking Mahomes is forcing a lot of throws into windows that aren’t there and has to learn he can’t be the one man show every year or every game. Andy Reid will try to avoid the Packers stingy secondary and try to exploit a gettable rush defense.


KC will slow the game down, and Mahomes will find his stride in the second half.


Play the Under…


Chiefs 27

Packers 17



LOCK OF THE WEEK

Tennessee Titans (+7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams, 53 LW [U]


Tennessee QB, Ryan Tannehill gets sacked too much—three times per game, and when he isn’t under pressure, he’s not producing like he did last year.


Derek Henry has single-handedly kept the Titans in a lot of games without the benefit of an elite QB or defense.


Henry won’t be playing a while due to an ankle injury.


The Rams have too much talent on both sides of he ball—and Matt Stafford is having an MVP year.


Tennessee won’t score more than 17 points.


The Under is a strong play here.

Rams 33

Titans 16



UPSET SPECIAL

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers 45 US [O]


I jumped on this game early and love the Cardinals in this spot. In fact, I can’t figure out how the Niners are favored in this game.


Match-up and efficiency stats all say the Cards are markedly better. In scoring, passing yards and YPP—and Murray is better than Garopollo


I know Arizona gives up 4.9 YPR (31st)—but they’re #2 in opponent YPP…


Murray’s ankle has to be better; Arizona had the mini-bye after losing to the Packers on Week Eight TNF.


The public is with me on the Spread and the Total—not always a good thing. Why? Because the Boys in Vegas make the Spread and Totals for a reason, meaning, the numbers make perfect sense to them.


Trends are with me too:

· Arizona is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.

· Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against San Francisco.

· Arizona is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against San Francisco.

· Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

· Arizona is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.

· Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season.

· San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

· San Francisco is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.

· The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games against Arizona.

· San Francisco is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games at home.

· San Francisco is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona.


The question remains unanswered—and I don’t care.


I put two units on this puppy. Bet of the Week, Over the Total.

Cardinals 26

49ers 21


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bears (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 39 O/U


This should’ve been a sack-fest in the Steel City featuring two of the best pressure defenses in football—except Chicago’s Khalil Mack won’t make the trip; he’s out with a bad foot and that bodes well for a Steelers offense that has appears to have found the wonderful world of balance.


Last Sunday, Stud rookie RB, Najee Harris pounded the Browns for 91 yards and Big Ben had time to look downfield behind a very green and mean offensive line—featuring two rookies.


Chicago rookie QB, Justin Fields is doing a better impression of Lamar Jackson than Lamar Jackson. To be honest, the kid worries me—even though Pittsburgh has defended Jackson as well as anyone.


ILB Devin Bush, still recovering from a ripped ACL, usually spies on Jackson—and Mike Tomlin better make sure somebody does or Pittsburgh could be in for a frustrating day.


If you haven’t seen Fields in action, take a gander at this highlight reel from last week.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlGsBV4GWG0


Runs like a cocaine laced deer, huh? His arm is even scarier. His favorite weapon is Jesse James.


This game has nightmare written all over it.


It might be a different call if Khali Mack was dressing, and if Safety Eddie Jackson wasn’t nursing a hamstring, but this Pittsburgh running game looks like it might be revving up—and that means Big Ben won’t have to press his luck.


Chicago rushed for 176 yards against an awful 49ers run defense last week. The Steeler stayed disciplined in their run gaps and stifled the Browns vaunted O-Line, with Nick Chubb on the sideline, all day.


I’m starting to believe in this Pittsburgh crew—and if their line continues to jell…


Obviously, we love the Over, but I’m not betting this game; Fields is too much of a wild card.


Steelers 26

Da Bears 19


The rest of my picks in bold italic…


Thursday, Nov. 4

New York Jets (+14) @ Indianapolis Colts, 44.5 [O]

Sunday, Nov. 7

Buffalo Bills (-11) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 50.5

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ New York Giants, 48

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys, 48.5

New England Patriots (-1.5) @ Carolina Panthers, 43.5

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens, 50.5

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals, 45.5

Houston Texans (-7) @ Miami Dolphins, 45

Atlanta Falcons (+5) @ New Orleans Saints, 45

L.A. Chargers (-3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles, 49.5

Green Bay Packers (+7.5)@ K.C. Chiefs 54 GW [U]

Tennessee Titans (+7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams, 53 LW [U]

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 45 US [O]

Monday, Nov. 8

Chicago Bears (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 39 [O] O/U


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