• Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK FOUR - ATS PICKS

NFL 2022 WEEK FOUR


GAME OF THE WEEK


Miami Dolphins (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) 47.5 [O] GW


Bengals 26

Dolphins 16



LOCK OF THE WEEK


Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) 42 LW [U]


Seems like me and a few other ‘Cappers out there are confused by this line—and it reveals once again Dak Prescott is a bit overrated. Yes, his record shows the Cowboys win with him at QB, but he is not in the NFL’s Top Ten at his position.


Satellite Radio’s Mad Dog Russo’s isn’t too much of a Prescott fan and you can hear his opinion here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTJL7M8ZWeo


If you can stomach Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless, here’s the debate from their perch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojDZMNy0Z84


Jason Whitlock looks like he lost a little weight, and I don’t know who his guest is—but this guy makes a good point about how coaches react when players make eons more money than their coordinators versus how they react to back-ups who need those DCs and OCs to help them be successful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuF1Pr745ZA


Dak Prescott is in the top 1/3 of NFL QBs, and if DeShaun Watson is worth 240M, Prescott is worth whatever Jerrah is paying him. Speaking of Jerry Jones, just like everything else Dallas---he is the problem when it comes to Dak, i.e.. Drafting receivers who don’t quite cut it, and letting a great offensive line get old.


Besides Jerry and Dak can thank residing in the geographically incorrect NFC East for the little success they have enjoyed during the last quarter century. Last year, fully half of their twelve victories were courtesy of their three division rivals—a 20-31 triumvirate of NFL futility.


It should me no surprise then, Dallas is my Lock this week against a Commanders team that pulled out a win over the young Jags in week one and hasn’t sniffed a win in the last two weeks.


With Carson Wentz—also infused with the NFC East stench—helming the hapless Commanders, Ron Rivera might be silently pining for Dan Snider to put him out of his DC misery.


The Commanders couldn’t command the respect ‘of the ’08 Detroit Lions. Their defense ranks no higher than 27th in any important stat; their offense is barely a rung higher at ‘consistently inept.’


Washington gave up nine sacks against the Eagles last week…The Cowboys lead the league with a Sack Percentage of 11.5%.


This should be as sure a LOW as you’re ever gonna get—which of course means the Commanders will rout the Cowboys 48-0.


It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been humiliated as a Handicapper—and it just might be worth seeing the look on Jerry Jones’ plastic face.


With the clueless Wentz and Cooper Rush playing quarterbacks—we’ll play the Under.


Cowboys 31

Commanders 10


UPSET SPECIAL


Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) 51.5 US [U]


Your Buffalo Bills have won their last 20 games by 10 or more points; they’ve also lost six games in a row in close contests with a differential of seven points or less.


Last week, they put a 500-yard Bison burger on the Fish in Florida; Josh Allen threw for over 400 yards. Mistakes at the wrong time, and mental gaffes that bit Buffalo when it counted the most, resulted in only 19 points and a potentially important division loss.


Excluding defensive 3rd down conversion percentage, and Red Zone scoring allowed percentage, the Bills are top four in every meaningful offensive and defensive statistical category. By far, the most well balanced team in the NFL. We’ll know come January how historic that balance might be.


Given Buffalo’s all-around excellence, you might wonder why they are only favored by three and the Hook when it comes to Baltimore.


Lamar Jackson can sling a football through a brick wall; he completes 63.6% of his passes, and has the highest QB rating in the league at 119+


But no one, not any GOAT you name, no Cheater, no four time Super Bowl winner—not even Jesus—the Greatest GOAT of all the GOATS could do this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAdTXGyPl8s


The coolest facts about that clip:

  • The man chasing Jackson is one of the NFL’s showcase corners, Xavien Howard; he runs a 4.4. forty.

  • It was described by one of the best play-by-play men ever—Kevin Harlan.


Buffalo has lost a couple of starting offensive lineman for the year. Their secondary is hobbled and will miss Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Xavier Rhodes. WR, Stefon Diggs is questionable as is TE, Dawson Knox.


DEFENSE? WHAT DEFENSE?


Since 2008, when John Harbaugh took the helm for Baltimore’s Murder of Crows, his defenses:

  • Have not been in the top 10 only four times

  • Top Ten: 10 times

  • Top Five: 6 times


Lots of injuries last year and lingering into 2022 have resulted in one of the leagues worst defenses—if not the worst.


I’ve always said, “John Harbaugh has the most punchable face in America.” But as excruciatingly painful as it is for this Steeler fan to write—the man is a great football coach.


JohnHarbaugh will not let his team’s poor defensive play continue—even though, the Magpies are living proof of our axiom that teams with new coordinators usually have trouble adjusting. Baltimore's DC, Mike McDonald from Brother Jim’s staff at Michigan took over for Wink Martindale. Look for a much tighter effort against the Bills.


Here are some relevant trends Courtesy of Oddshark.com, VSIN.com, and TeamRankins.com:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

  • Buffalo is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

  • Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

  • Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

  • Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 7 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.

  • Baltimore are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference East division

  • Baltimore is 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games played on a Sunday.

  • As a Home Dog, the Ravens are15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 at M&T Bank Stadium.

  • In the last 20 years, teams that lose in Miami are 57-79-4 .419 ATS the next week


I think Harbaugh and his Magpies will surprise Sean McDermott and the Bills tomorrow.


It’s supposed to rain with a steady 10-15mph wind; we’ll go against the public and the Sharps—Play the Under


Ravens 26

Bills 24



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) New Orleans Saints (+2.5) 43.5 O/U


We struggled to pick a winner in this one until we found out Andy Dalton will start at QB for the Saints. That’s no cut on Dalton; the guy has been a good QB wherever he’s played. He’s also been cursed with mediocre wide receivers, porous offensive lines, and a few very stupid teammates.


Kirk Cousins has been cursed with, well, being Kirk Cousins. But he’s played with better supporting casts than Dalton has in New Orleans—and the 2022 Saints have considerable talent


Also, check out the injury reports for these squads:


RB, Dalvin Cook, and S, Harrison Smith, will start for the Norsemen...


The Holy Men will be without Jameius Winston, Jack-of-all-trades, Taysom Hill, stud wideouts, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry—and Alvin Kamara is iffy with sore ribs.

Add to that pile of misery a five time-zone difference to London…


TRENDS

Since 2007, favorites have been the profitable play.


  • Favorites are 21-8-1 SU and 18-12 ATS in that span. (Including Jags…

  • Not counting Jags 18-3-1 ATS

  • Saints are 18-1 SU past 19 games in October and 23-6 ATS past 29 in October

  • Vikings have won 5 straight (4-1 ATS) as favorite

  • Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. NFC North division

  • Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 4.

  • Saints 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as the Underdog

  • Better teams seem to play better In London.

  • We’ll go with the Fave Norsemen, lay the 2.5; play the Under…


Vikings 23

Saints 20


As usual my pick are below in bold italics,


NFL Week 4 point spreads

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) 47.5 [O] GW

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) New Orleans Saints (+2.5) 43.5 O/U

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) 49.5

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) 51.5 US [U]

Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) 42 LW [U]

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) 48

Los Angeles Chargers (-6) @ Houston Texans (+6) 44.5

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) 43

Chicago Bears (+2.5) @ New York Giants (-2.5) 39

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) 48.5

New York Jets (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) 40.5 [U]

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) @ Carolina Panthers (-1.5) 4 3.5

New England Patriots (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5) 39.5

Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) 44.5

K.C. Chiefs (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) 45.5 [O]

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) 42.5 [O]


5 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

NFL 2022 WEEK ELEVEN – TALLY SHEET WEEK ELEVEN = 8 – 5 – 1 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 82 – 79 – 1 WEEK ELEVEN 0/U 2 – 5 O/U CUMULATIVE 37 – 36 – 1 .530 SPECIALS 3 – 1

NFL WEEK TWELVE – ATS HAPPY THANKSGIVING Buffalo Bills (-10) vs. Detroit Lions 54 [O] This Spread is a bridge to far for The Gairzo—yes he does refer to himself in the third person, sometimes—becau

NFL 2022 WEEK TEN – TALLY SHEET WEEK TEN = 5 – 9 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 74 – 74 – 1 WEEK TEN 0/U 4 – 3 O/U CUMULATIVE 35 – 31 – 1 .530 SPECIALS 2 – 2 SPECIALS CU