NFL WEEK FOUR 2021
Updated: Oct 20, 2021
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK THREE
Week Three Tally: 9 – 7 2021 Overall Tally: 22 – 26
Week Three Totals 4 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 10 – 7
Weekly Specials 4 – 0 Cumulative Specials: 8 -4
GAME OF THE WEEK 1 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 0 O/U OF THE WEEK 2 – 1
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 19 – 11 THREE POINT PARLAYs 1 – 1
After a rough start we had a redemptive Week Three—our first winning week—we swept our Specials and kept pace with on the Number, which means our Premium Picks are humming along at a .579 clip.
To make matters better, we hit our first three-legged Parlay which paid a handsome 6 to 1.
This week’s slate doesn’t have three legs I want to dance with—we’ll take another shot next week.
Keeping it real, all we’ve shown thus far is everyone will have bad weeks and anyone can have a good week. The trick is picking nine winners each week, hitting the Specials big once a month and favoring the Over on your Totals.
Why? In the NFL, it’s almost getting to easy to score.
Rants and in-depth analysis will be put off until next week. I’m getting an award from the Boobs & Blood Int’l Film Festival for a script I entered last year…It ain’t the Oscars, but I’ll take it…
Keeping it short and sweet…
GAME OF THE WEEK
T. B. Buccaneers @ N.E. Patriots +7 49 GW [O]
You gotta wonder if Belichick and Brady are trying to figure out if the other one is still cheating.
The Bucs have too many weapons for a typically tight New England defense that couldn’t beat Miami, last week, at home.
Brady will win this one. Give the points; play the Over.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys -4.5 51.5 LW [U]
As a Steeler fan, I hate to say it but the Cowboys are playing well, with a chip on their shoulder. Week Two, they held the Bolts to 17 in La La Land and gave the Mateys all they could handle last week.
‘Lina is without Mcaffery, and Josh Rosen has resurrected himself—but I’m not convinced yet…
Since 2015 the ‘Boys are one game under .500 after a loss. This week they prove they are for real against the game Black Cats…
I’m thinking the Dallas defense has a marquis day.
Take the ’Boys at home. The number seems right on—play it at your peril—we’re going with the Under.
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -1.5 42.5 O/U
Neither of these teams can score—both averaging under 19 PPG.
And, they each surrender over 26 PPG…
Carson Wentz is playing better football every week…
This was a relatively easy call.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DENVER BRONCOS -1 45 US [O]
Denver is one of the surprise teams in the NFL—Teddy Bridgewater finally found a home in the Mile High City—completing 77% of his passes with a 116.4 rating.
Vic Fangio has his #2 defense playing his way…But…
The Wild Horses have played the Jags and both New York teams—none rank higher than 26 in just about every power ranking .
Denver’s legitimacy as a serious contender faces its toughest test against the Magpies who are just shredded with injuries—17 players on IR, and more on the weekly list—yet John
Harbaugh’s Crows out-slugged KC, and gave one away in Vegas last week.
Since 2006, Denver is 3rd worst in the NFL as a Home Favorite; Baltimore wins 57.5% as a Road Dog.
I’ll take Lamar Jackson and his Ravens.
Play the Over.
My Week Four pick are below in bold italics…
NFL POINT SPREADS WEEK 4 Game Spread
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals CIN -7.5 46 [O]
Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons WAS -1.5
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears CHI -3
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets TEN -7.5
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings CLE -2.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins MIA -1.5 42.5 O/U
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys DAL -4.5 51.5 [U] LW
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints NO -7.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles KC -7.5
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills BUF -16.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LAR -4.5
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49erS SF -3
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver BroncosDEN -1 45 US [O]
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers GB -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots TB -7 49 GW [O]
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers LAC -3.5 [U]