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  • Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK FIFTEEN - ATS

Updated: Dec 18, 2022



****BOY, DO I HAVE SOME 'SPLAINING TO DO...


I woke up early to write, but fell asleep...When I woke up late, I had it in my mind that, the early game started a 1:00 pm ESD...But, but, I live in Los F#@king Angeles, now don't I?


Hey, give me a break, I've only lived in L.A. 23 years--it takes time adjusting to the time change...


Anyway, I've been writing feverishly and am posting this knowing the Colts first lead the Vikes by 33 points--Minnesota -4 is my Lock of the Week--a well deserved outcome for such a huge blunder...


All of my picks and two Specials analysis were done last night, so I should be good...


...Good thing I'm my own boss...


NFL 2022 WEEK FOURTEEN – TALLY SHEET

WEEK FOURTEEN = 7 – 6

WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 106 – 97 – 5 .522

WEEK FOURTEEN 0/U = 4 – 2

O/U CUMULATIVE 50 – 45 – 1 .526

SPECIALS 2 – 2 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 32 – 23 – 1 .581

GAME OF THE WEEK 7 – 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 8 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL 11 – 3 O/U OF THE WEEK 9 – 5

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 71 – 57 – 1 .559



WEEK THIRTEEN – ATS


GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 7


Miami Dolphins (+7) @ Buffalo Bills 44 GW [O]


The Bolts exposed Miami last week in Los Angeles.


The Dolphins have the one weakness Super Bowl aspiring teams, in this era, seldom overcome—they are unbalanced on offense.


With Tua, Tyreek, And Waddle, the Fish can swim with any NFL secondary in the passing game—there’s a lot of speed the Dolphins bring to the field—through the air. …And not much else…


Miami scrapes the bottom of the NFL barrel when it comes to the run game—and if that doesn’t justify a heavy wager on Buffalo, the following from the actionnetwork.com will:


Winds of 8-10 mph are expected in Buffalo throughout the night, with gusts up to 23 mph in play as well.

These aren’t exactly ideal conditions for Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who doesn’t have much experience in cold weather throughout his college and NFL career. The little experience he does have didn’t go all that well.

Since landing at Alabama, Tagovailoa has never started a game with the temperature below 36 degrees — Saturday’s Bills vs. Dolphins matchup is expecting average temperatures of around 29 degrees.

In the NFL, he has started three games at 50 degrees or colder and the Dolphins are 0-3 straight up and against the spread, averaging just 14 points in those matchups..

The Under is also dictated by the weather.


Bills 26

Dolphins 19




LOCK OF THE WEEK 5-7-1


Indianapolis Colts (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings 47 LW [O]


We are never thrilled calling a Lock when Kirk Cousins is the QB we are depending on-especially when the Norsemen have crowned themselves as the NFL’s worst defense, giving up 403.7 YPG.


Alas, we have no belief in the Horseshoes doing anything more than validating Jim Irsay’s hiring of HC, Jeff Saturday, as an impulsive, self-indulgent and, frankly, dumb idea whose time should never have come.


Here’s some vinegar to wash out that cut: Last week vs. the Cowboys, third and long, 3rd quarter, the Colts run the ball, seemingly to avoid a ferocious Dallas pass rush that would help the Cowboys put up a fourth quarter 33 burger with onion rings on an Indy squad that appeared to have bent the knee to King Jerrah.


Indy comes out of their bye—that’s another reason we aren’t thrilled with this Lock—as the NFL team not even a good head coach can salvage.


With a win, Minny clinches the NFC North. Let’s hope they want it as badly as they should.


Vikings 31

Colts 20



UPSET SPECIAL 11 – 2

Kansas City Chiefs (-14) @ Houston Texans 49 US [O]


I keep winning when I bet on the Texans to cover such a huge number—or any other NFL double-digit dog (DDD). Since Week Eight, the Gairzo is a healthy 10-4 when picking DDGs ATS.


Keeping it real, my percentage on DDGs prior to Week Eight steadily declined—and it makes perfect sense.


Remember, our “theory” to successful NFL handicapping is based on viewing the first 3-4 games of the season as being what the last two games of the pre-season used to be—the time when OLines, Defenses and Teams solidify their bonds, jell as units, and catch up to the 1st string offenses.


However, in this age of minimal in-week contact, protecting players, and focus on scoring, many teams take 6-8 weeks to hit their stride. This year Dallas, Cincy, and San Fran prove the point.


Yet, each of these teams has lost to DDDs.


When we keep in mind the owner’s have designed a system—inverse drafting/waiver wire, limited free agency, strength of schedule determined by previous season’s record, and the salary cap—to essentially create 32 8-8 teams, it isn’t a stretch to see consistent value in betting on DDDs



Yes the Chiefs are an elite team and might be for a couple years more; right now the Texans are bereft of talent, but if you have Sunday Ticket, you’ve watched them fight like dogs every week and perform like a well-coached team—Lovie Smith’s squad is 3-1 as a DDD; the Chiefs 0-2 DD Faves.


We believe the Shit Kickers will be competitive enough to beat the Spread—Over the Number.

Chiefs 33

Texans 20




OVERF/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos 36.5


Denver’s offense is as atrocious as their defense is excellent.


The Cardinals are a hot mess becoming steamier by the day—and Colt McCoy isn’t the answer Arizona desperately needs. With Russell Wilson starting and out of the concussion carousel, the Wild horses could score big in this one; they scored 28 against a pretty awful Chiefs defense last week to cover as a DDD.


We would stay away from this Special. There isn’t a Total we like on the Week Fifteen slate.


Broncos 26

Cardinals 10


As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated:


WEEK FOURTEEN SPREADS AND TOTALS

NFL WEEK FIFTEEN – ATS

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks 43 [U]

Indianapolis Colts (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings 47 LW [O]

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Cleveland Browns 38 [O]

Miami Dolphins (+7) @ Buffalo Bills 44 GW [O]

Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ New Orleans Saints 43,5

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 37.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears 48

Kansas City Chiefs (-14) @ Houston Texans 49 US [O]

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 48

Detroit Lions (+0.5) @ New York Jets 44

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos 36 O/U

New England Patriots (+1) @ Las Vegas Raiders 44.5

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers 46.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44

New York Giants (+4.5) @ Washington Commanders 40.5 [O]

Los Angeles Rams (+7) @ Green Bay Packers 39 [O]



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