- Gary Porpora
NFL WEEK FIFTEEN ATS
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK FOURTEEN
WEEK FOURTEEN ATS 7 – 9 2020 Overall ATS 104 – 102 - 2
Weekly Totals 1 – 4 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 38 – 49 – 4
Weekly Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 30 – 27 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 12 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 8
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 10 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 7 – 1
PREMIUM PICKS 2 – 7 – 1 CUMULATIVE 68 – 76 – 5
WEEK FIFTEEN PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-1) @ NEW OREANS SAINTS (10-4) +3 52 [O]
Let me get this straight—we are supposed to believe that a 39 year-old Drew Brees is supposed to compete eyeball to eyeball with Patrick Mahomes—after breaking 11 ribs.
Eleven Broken.Ribs…(How did that lone rib escape?)
Folks, I bruised a rib one time during karate class.
I couldn’t sleep for a week.
Sean Payton is playing his mind games again. Taysom Hill will have a big role in tonight’s festivities. The Holy Men better pray he doesn’t turn the ball over—he’s lost five fumbles this year.
Some of the “expert handicappers” calling this game point to the Saints defense like they’re the ’76 Steelers. They gave up over 260 yards to Miles Sanders and the Eagles last week!
You have to give Payton his due:
· His Saints are 9-1- SU after a loss in their last ten tries...
· 12-3 as an ATS Underdog following a loss…
· In the last decade, Payton and the Holy Men win 65% of their games after a loss, the NFL 5th best…
· Since he was hired in 2006, Payton’s teams are second only to the most infamous Cheater in the last 100 years, SU after a loss…
Meanwhile in Kansas City, since Mahomes started under Andy Reid, the Chiefs have lost five games.
Drew Brees hurting, Taysom Hill still learning and a New Orleans defense that hasn’t played such a potent offense in two years?
I think the Chiefs are going to roll the Saints big time—Over the Number.
Chiefs 37 Saints 28
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -8.5 52.5 [U] 8:15 p.m. ET
Sorry if yours truly seem redundant, but as long as Aaron Rodgers plays at his current level, he’s going to win a lot of money for the smart handicapper.
OH SHUT UP!!!
There are two factors I base that conclusion on:
· Like conniving lovers in a daytime soap opera Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur are starting to get all fuzzy and warm when they see each other…
· When an elite QB gets comfortable with his play caller, magic usually happens…
I think the Pack has the best shot of going to the Super Bowl from their conference—and are one of the few teams in the league with the weapons to shoot it out against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
A close look at what’s happening Charlotte shows us that Matt Rhule has not established that relationship with his starter, Teddy Bridgewater. Consequently, the magic has been inconsistent; the flaws of the Panthers—in personnel and scheme—are magnified.
In Green Bay, a pedestrian defense, O-Line injuries, and other talent issues are minimized by a guy who can zip-line a football 40 yards with a casual flip of his wrist.
We can handle the 8.5. We’ll ride the Rodgers wave –as long as Vegas gives us the number—we’’ take the Under.
Packers 30 Panthers 10
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS(9-4) @ WASHINGTON CROSSINGS (6-7) +6.5 43 [O]
You may have noticed one of our more comical prospective nicknames for the Washington Football Team…We plan to offer more as the season continues---just our way of asking WFT—er—WTF is taking Danny Boy and his racist Merry Men so damn long to create a nickname for a team that plays football in the nation’s capital.
Of course, I could be very wrong—in fact, after reading these two trends, this might be an embarrassingly awful pick.
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 East Coast games.
Washington is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 at home after consecutive road games.
Fortunately, the real reason I’m taking the Chalk and the Washington Truth is because I looked at Seattle performances against teams with good front sevens—NYG, Miami, Arizona, Minny, and Philly. Russell Wilson and Company won their share, but most of those games were close.
We believe the WFT has the best front seven in football, and even if Haskins starts, Washington is playing for a division title too.
They’ll torture Wilson all night, control the ball with Gibson’s rushing, and pull off the natural Upset—Over the Total
WFT 25 Seahawks 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-2) @ CINCINATTI BENGALS (2-10-1) +8.5 40.5
The gnashing of molars in the Steel City is getting to be comical. Smart football fans know any team that doesn’t rush the ball with some modicum of success is a prime target to go one and done in the post season.
The NFL is successful because unlike hockey or football—sports where one individual can turn piss into lemonade—football demands balance.
You can’t win a war with air power alone.
Even great ground attacks can get bogged down.
Last week, Buffalo and their upstart defense, not to mention a great young QB exposed Pittsburgh’s weaknesses.
The Steelers looked like my Grandma when they tried to run block—she’s been dead for 45 years. I’m pretty sure her blocking skills have eroded. (No offense Gram.)
I love my Steelers and just like every other team in the 2020 NFL, Pittsburgh has had to face, let’s say, unusual adversity.
Give Buffalo and WFT all their credit, they played better and earned their wins—but I don’t think Pittsburgh was at their best, or anywhere near it, for either game.
Playing three NFL games in 12 days, taking hits from a deadly pandemic, and injuries due to the sport they play, the Steelers were tired and depleted for both contests. Their best O-Line men were injured. They lost a superb middle linebacker and his surprisingly superb replacement to ACL tears, and 2 starting CBs…
I’ll just quote a certain QB named after a famous clock—“Relax.”
This is not to say Zach Taylor and his Bengals will be easy pickings. Before Joe Burrow shredded a knee, the Bengals made the AFC North a four-team race.
First year coaches who took over losing franchises with young QBs—Taylor, Rhule— were fortunate to perform as well as they did.
This is the NFL. Cincy has dealt with as much “unusual adversity” as anyone---that doesn’t mean they still can’t pull off the upset against a team that will have key people returning from injury and sickness—and should be well rested.
Look for the Steelers to stay with the running game and keep the Bengals out of the end zone. I know the Total is low for a reason—but Ben is sick of people saying he can’t throw the deep ball anymore.
The Over is the call.
Steelers 30 Bengals 12
My picks are below in bold italic…
Thursday, Dec. 17
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas -3 55 [O] 8:20 p.m.
Saturday Dec. 19
Buffalo @ Denver +6 49.5 [U] 4:30 p.m. ET
Carolina @ Green Bay -8.5 52.5 [U] 8:15 p.m. ET LW
Sunday Dec. 20
1:00 p.m. Games
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta +6 49.5
Jacksonville @ Baltimore -12.5 47.5
San Francisco @ Dallas +3 45
Houston @ Indianapolis -7.5 51
New England @ Miami -1.5 41.5
Chicago @ Minnesota -3 47
Detroit @ Tennessee -10.5 51.5
Seattle @ Washington +6.5 43 US
4:00 p.m. Games
Philadelphia @ Arizona -6 49.5
New York Jets @ Los Angeles Rams -17.5 43.5
Kansas City @ New Orleans +3 51.5 [GW]
Cleveland @ New York Giants +4.5 44 (SNF) [O]
Monday Dec. 21
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati +8.5 40.5 8:15 p.m. O/U