NFL 2024 WEEK TEN = 9 - 5 2024 OVERALL. = 84 - 63 - 5 .571
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 1 O/U CUMULATIVE = 42 - 27 .609
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 2 - 3 CUMULATIVE = 29 - 18 - 3 .617
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 5 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 3 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 4 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 - 4
STEELERS 7 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 71 - 45 - 3 .612
NFL 2024 - WEEK ELEVEN
GAME OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5) 46 GW [U]
I love Josh Allen, Sean McDermott, and the Bills to win the AFC East, but you give me the world champs with an undefeated 9-0 record, going for--and with a legitimate shot at achieving--the only three-peat in NFL history, led by a top three coach in Andy Reid, not to mention the champs catching 2.5 Points--and this is an easy call.
Okay, maybe not easy; it’s more accurate to say the Bills, Bengals and the rest of the AFC have to prove they can beat Mahomes in a big game, then in the playoffs, before I’m betting against Reid’s Arrowheads.
Some interesting trends:
* KC is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog
* KC HC, Andy Reid is on 9-1 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* Patrick Mahomes is on 10-2 SU and 12-0 ATS roll as a road underdog
* Mahomes boasts a 27-9 SU and 23-11 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Should be a great game...
I’m Taking the Chalk, the Chiefs, and the Under.
(The Under was my pick before doing any research. My reasoning rests on the excellence of the Chiefs defense which is better than Buffalo’s-albeit, not by much...Also, Harrison Butker is on IR and that might be difficult for KC to overcome in Buffalo.)
I think the defenses will keep the score Under the Total...)
Chiefs 23
Bills 21
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+5) 40. LW [U]
Matt Eberflus, the Bears head coach, has fired more people than Donald Trump pretended to fire on The Apprentice. At the ensuing presser after his most recent firing of OC, Shane Waldron, Eberflus took the most cliche action a head coach will ever take...
...He took responsibility...
What do you think Bears owner, Virginia Halas McCaskey, thought about that? “What a relief!”... Or...”How noble of you, coach”...or, and this would be my preference...”Are you fucking kidding me? Get the fuck out of my building you asshole!!!!!”
I admit the odds of any woman who looks as precious as she does in this pic...
uttering such vulgarity......are slim and none...
And I don’t know Coach Eberflus, but his consistent incompetence will set Da Bears back for at least a half decade of NFL hibernation.
Rumors of unhappy players, 13 fired coaches, wasting Caleb William’s elite raw talent; poorly implemented strategy, sideline chaos, players making the same mistakes repeatedly...
Ms. McCaskey deserves better...
Because her Bears play in the league's oldest rivalry against Green Bay, there is always a chance of a divisional upset.
Obviously, I don’t think that is in the offing.
It’s not anymore likely to occur than hearing the following response from a coach in Eberflus’ squirm-worthy position:
“Take responsibillity? No,!!!! I’m not wearing a helmet, am I?...I don’t jump offsides, do I?...Did I draft a stiff safety in the second round when I could have had George goddamned Pickens? And I’m sick and tired of taking questions from a bunch of clueless saps who don‘t know the difference between a football and a bundt cake...You know what, go f#@k yourselves..." (Storms Off.)
Meanwhile in Green Bay, Jordan Love is back, Matt LeFleur has the 6-3 Pack on track for a wildcard berth and his boys should beat these Bears by 8-10 points
Some trends courtesy of vsin.com’s Steve makinen--the best in the business:
Road favorites coming out of their bye week = 110-45 SU and 92-59-4 ATS since ’99, 60.9%...
Green Bay is 9-1 Under the total in the last 10 post-bye week road games...
The Packers are on a 6-1 SU and ATS post-bye week run versus divisional opponents...
These divisional games in the North, of both conferences, are usually hard fought and close--and these defenses are good enough to keep the score low.
We’re going with Green Bay to win big Under the Number.
Packers 24
Bears 15
UPSET SPECIAL
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) 48.5 [U]
SAME TIME NEXT YEAR
Any given handicapper offer you stats and trends on this biannual match-up between the NFL’s most bitter rivals, battling for divisional supremacy.
The Steelers catch some cred with a defense that has won three of the four games in which Lamar Jackson has been healthy enough to play against them--and a defense stud RB, Derek Henry, has seldom been able to solve.
Baltimore’s offense is humming at historic highs and the skill position talent helped fuel the Crows to a 25 point win against the Bills and a 31 point rout of Denver--both at home.
Those two wins and a 10 point road win against the Mateys are the only games the Crows didn’t have to peck and jab to secure one score victories---or losses
Magpies fans are thinking 2024 will be the year, in which their two-time MVP QB finally brings home a Lombardi.
Pittsburgh fans are praying Mike Tomlin will continue to win against Baltimore--currently 20-15 against Harbaugh--and then won’t get blown out for the fifth straight time in the post season or better yet, win a playoff game for the first time in 7--SEVEN--years--the longest drought since before the Emperor Chaz Noll ruled the Steelers sideline.
Some stats & trends--
Najee Harris will have to work hard to dent the NFL’s best rushing defense...Baltimore gives up only 3.4 YPR and 73 RYPG...
Russell Wilson and his receivers should be able to exploit a very suspect Baltimore pass defense--29th in PYPP, (7.9)... 32nd in PYPG, (294.9)...
This is Mike Tomlin’s & John Harbaugh’s 36th game coaching against each other--2nd
all-time after George Halas vs. Curly Lambeau, (49)....
Of the 35 Tomlin/Harbaugh matchups only 8 of them have been decided by more than 8 points.
Since 2015, only three of eighteen games between these two squads have been decided by more than 7 points...
Pittsburgh. Is 7-1 in the last eight meetings...
11-4 in the last fifteen....
The Under was the winning wager in the last seven match-ups--proving my division rivalry = Under theory is a thing.
Of course, my readers should be wary of any Pittsburgh call the Gairzo makes. I want the Men of Steel to win, and I know it isn’t wishful thinking to believe they can beat a defensively challenged Baltimore group--but still, take my Steelers picks with several grains of salt.
I’m taking Pittsburgh, the points, and calling the Under...
Steelers 24
Ravens 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) 44 O/U
Bo Nix, Denver’s rookie QB, seems to be improving by the week and I’m not surprised.
Broncos Head Coach, Sean Payton whispers to quarterbacks as well as anyone, but the Wild Horses are lacking elite offensive talent. I don’t see Nix, even at home in the thin air, lighting any team up with offensive fireworks.
The Falcons are one of those teams afflicted with multiple personality disorder. They’ve won and lost to some good teams like Tampa, (twice), and Kansas City, respectively--yet, also lost to Seattle and New Orleans.
A legit top five defense like Denver’s usually stops inconsistent offenses.
And the Broncos score on average 19.7 PPG; they might need 23 to win this puppy---because their defense should hold Kirk Cousins and company very near to the 20 pt. threshold.
We love the Under...
Broncos 23
Falcons 20
As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL Week 11 odds: Point spreads
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) 49.5 [U]
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+5) 40 LW. [U]
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (-12.5) 47
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-7) 45.5
Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots (+5.5) 43.5
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5) 43.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) 48.5 US [U]
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (+6) 39.5
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-4) 44
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) 44.5 O/U
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) 49.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5) 45.5 GW [U]
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) 46.5. [U]
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys (+7) 41.5. [O]
Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers, Cardinals have bye weeks...
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