NFL WEEK ELEVEN - ATS
Updated: Nov 25, 2020
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK TEN
WEEK SEVEN ATS 8 – 5 - 1 2020 Overall ATS 76 – 70 - 1
Weekly Totals 3 – 3 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 27 – 34 – 2
Weekly Specials 2 – 1 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 22 – 19 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 –2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 5
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 7 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 5 – 1
PREMIUM PICKS5 – 4 – 2 CUMULATIVE 49 – 53 – 3
WEEK ELEVEN PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-2) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-3) -1.5 51.5 [U]
Normally, because Aaron Rodgers is playing, this is one of my picks where I don’t have to think too much—of course does it really help when I do think?
Oh, shut up!
Aaron Rodger’s immense talent renders many a ‘capper as lazy—he is that good.
The stat sheets, though make the smart analyst, (ahem!), think harder about the impact of an excellent Indy defense:
· 1st in yards allowed per play & per game
· 1st in lowest Opp. QB rating
· 2nd in Opp. Passing yard allowed per game
· 4th in Opp. rushing yards allowed per game
· 4th in points allowed…One of four teams to hold opponents to 20 or less PPG
· 5th in Opp. Pass yard per attempt
· 5th in Opp. Completion %
· 9th in Sack %
Anyway you look at it, that’s an impressive stats profile—even if the Colts have beaten only three quality teams—and lost to a poor Jax squad in Week One. To be fair, Green Bay has beaten just two quality teams, and barely escaped a bad upset at the hands of those same Jags,
As of this writing, WR, DaVante Adams has an ankle, but will play as will injured TE, Marcedes Lewis. Every starting receiver is nursing an injury. Even wide out, Equanimeous St. Brown is questionable with a knee. Defensively, CBs Kevin King and Jaire Alexander are questionable.
A lot of Green Bays’ best players are hurting.
Even with the great Rodgers, The Horseshoes are only a tick or two below the Pack on offense-and Phillip Rivers is fighting Father time for at least one more post-season journey.
We’re taking the Colts at the Oilfield—Under the Number.
Colts 23 Packers 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-1) @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (6 - 3) +7 56 LW [O]
I don’t know why John Gruden had the Raiders bus driver take a couple of victory laps around Arrowhead Stadium following the only KC loss of the year.
Why poke the wolverine? Especially if the wolverine has Andy Reid’s record coming off a bye.
A quick look at the stats and trends paints a picture of an already heated division rivalry becoming more intense as the Raiders acquire more talent and KC hones talent with one ring already in the team’s jewelry box.
Statistically the Raiders are a barely average team; the Arrowheads bring the best passing attack in the NFL—they’re 7th rushing the ball—the Super Bowl MVP, and one of the NFL’s most successful coaching staffs.
Give John Gruden credit, he did a lot of trading, made some good deals, and he’s brought the Raidas to the edge of respectability, but driving victory laps around your most hated rival’s stadium isn’t very respectable. “No class” would be one apt description. Worse than that, it compels opponents to refocus, and it puts a target on your guy’s backs.
I know, I know, a lot of this motivational drama fans and idiot writers chew their pencils over simply doesn’t exist. Professional football players don’t need motivated—they go to work do their job, and are thankful to survive in such a violent sport.
Still, this Wiki-nugget made me laugh:
Wolverines….possess a special upper molar in the back of the mouth that is rotated 90 degrees, towards the inside of the mouth. This special characteristic allows wolverines to tear off meat from prey or carrion that has been frozen solid.
Maybe that’s why you don’t want to piss them off.
It’s Kansas City and the Over.
Chiefs 39 Raiders 23
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-5) @ HOUSTON TEXANS (2-7) -3 47.5 [O]
Since your humble handicapper was shut out with his TNF call on the Upset Special, we’ll go for a make-up game here.
The Patriots have dominated the Texans in the last five years, but we can’t deny both these teams are pretty awful.
It looks like the Romeo Crennel syndrome has taken firm hold in Houston. The team looked decent right after Crennel took over from Bill O’Brien—but stability does not equal excellence and after this game is over, the chatter about Crennel being hired on a permanent basis will fade to a whisper.
Meanwhile in New England, Bill Belichick—cheating convictions aside—is facing the greatest challenge of his career. Can he turn a 2-5 team into a playoff contender and avoid missing the post season for only the second time since our last election fiasco?
We give Belichick all the disdain his record of cheating to gain a competitive advantage deserves, but we also are compelled to acknowledge, next to only Noll and Landry, the Darth Hoodie is one of the best at discovering and coaching up talent to fit his schemes.
Last week he ran the ball all over the Magpies for 173 yards, holding Lamar Jackson and company to a tad over 300 total yards.
This week he faces a disillusioned Houston squad that penciled themselves into a post-season berth as Bill O’Brien was making the Worst Deals of the Century.
Each team has a poor defense and QBs who can catch fire at anytime. We’re betting it will be Cam Newton who burns the Texans
Patriots 27 Texans 23
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
TENNESSEE TITANS(6-3) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-3) -5.5 49.5 [O]
This puppy promises to be a nail biter—we see Baltimore and Lamar Jackson applying the dagger midway into the fourth period. That’s the issue when two teams pretty equally matched play football—which squad has more players capable of sticking that dagger into the heart of an opponent.
The Titans have no one who can play that role—Derek Henry prefers to insert the weapon slowly, while twisting intently. Under Mike Vrabel the Titans are a ball control team who want to run the human locomotive at you until victory is achieved. After watching Damien Harris make mincemeat of a skilled and formidable Ravens run defense last week, Vrabel’s boys must be salivating.
Baltimore slogged through a steady New England rain to emerge as victim of a clearly inferior team.
Injuries to key linemen on both sides of the ball have daunted both these squads 2020 campaigns with the Titans Taylor Lewan on IR and line mate Roger Saffold out with an ankle, a pissed off and proud Ravens defense will make life difficult for Henry and dare the reincarnated Ryan Tannehill to beat them.
The problem is if you look at the stats, the Ravens might have more dynamic weapons—Jackson, Hollywood Brown—but Tennessee is clearly the better balanced offense—and has been just as productive.
Baltimore’s attitude on defense—they are still #1 in points allowed---and Harbaugh’s usual special teams excellence will assert themselves and give Baltimore at least a six point win. If the spread were the full 7 points the bookies adjusted from after the public weighed in, I may have picked the Titans. I caught this one early and made my pick then—I’m staying with the Crows.
Ravens 30 Titans 24
My picks are below in bold italic…
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) 57.5 [O] US
SUNDAY 1:00 11/22/20
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-7) 52
Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Football Team (-1) 46.5
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers (+2.5) 47
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (-3) 47.5 US
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns (-3) 45
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 46
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) 49.5 O/U
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos 45
New York Jets @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) 47.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings (-7) 48
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5 51.5) GW [U]
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ Las Vegas Raiders 56 LW [U]
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) 48.5 [O]
Bye: Buffalo, Chicago, New York Giants, San Francisco