NFL WEEK EIGHT - TNF - PICK AGAINST THE SPREAD
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - PICK AGAINST THE SPREAD
When: Thursday, October 29 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Channel: Prime Video
Panthers vs. Packers Odds
Moneyline: Packers -185, Panthers +154
Spread: Packers -3.5 (-112), Panthers +3.5 (-108)
Total: Over 47.5 (-112), Under 47.5 (-108)
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers -3.5 50.5 [U]
Let’s start off with a few nuggets courtesy of CBSsports.com
- Panthers QB Bryce Young ranks second in the NFL in passing yards per game (285.3). He has thrown a touchdown pass in eight straight games, including playoffs.
- Carolina ranks fifth in the NFL in points per game (26.5) and yards per game (381.3).
- The Panthers have an NFL-leading nine receivers with at least one 25-yard catch this season.
- Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard rushed for at least 120 yards in two straight games before being limited to 33 yard on seven carries against the Bucs.
- Carolina has a league-high 79.2 penalty yards per game. Green Bay is second with 78 penalty yards per game. The Packers have a league-high 9.3 penalties per game.
- The Packers have a league-high 33 plays from scrimmage of at least 20 yards. Packers QB Jordan Love has a league-leading 30 completions of at least 20 yards.
- Packers WR Christian Watson has six touchdown catches to rank second in the NFL. Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba has eight.
- Packers K Trey Smack missed field goal attempts from 26 and 35 yards in the loss to the Lions. The 35-yarder was deflected.
ANALYSIS
Any way you slice this baby up, it isn’t pretty. Both squads are either undisciplined or overly aggressive because they are the two most penalized teams in the league.
Both QBs are struggling. Carolina’s Bryce Young and the Pack’s Jordan Love have turned the ball over almost once a game.
Both OLs being seriously banged up sure doesn’t help, nor does the lack of a reliable rushing attack by either team. Green Bay is dead last in running the ball and the Panthers aren’t much better at defending the run.
I still can’t get on board the Bryce young train, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. Jordan Love has had an injury-plagued year, overcoming a late-pre-season thumb, an MCL sprain a few weeks ago, and a mysterious back ailment, which disappeared as quickly as it arose.
Ratings-wise, both QBs hover around the 90.0 Mark--very near the league average...
TRENDING
CAROLINA is 27-36 ATS (42.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
GREEN BAY is 96-24 SU and 74-44 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 27-19-1 SU but 17-30 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Under is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 road games.
Under is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
THE SYSTEM EXPLAINED
In order of importance, here our the most relevant factors that determine how we handicap any given game:
QB: ranking and stats...HEAD COACH: W/L record, experience...TURNOVERS: Differential and related stats..SCORING: Differential...YARDS PER PLAY, (YPP): Differential......RUSHING PERFORMANCE on offense and defense...HALFTIME FACTOR: 2nd half adjustments...BIG PLAYS: Plays over 20 yards...RED ZONE PERFORMANCE...3rd DOWN PERFORMANCE...
Let's apply it to this TNF Match-up:
QB = GB
HC = GB
SCORING DIFF = LEAN GB
TOs = GB
HALFTIME ADJUSTMENTS = CAR.
YPP = TIE
RUSHING = TIE
HALFTIME ADJUSTMENTS = CAR
RED ZONE = TIE
3RD DOWN = LEAN CAR
As you can see, this system portends a close game by relatively evenly matched teams. The deciding factor for me is each criteria is listed in order of importance. The Packers win those first four, and most important, categories...
THE PICK
The “Hook”--the. 5 of the 3.5 of the Spread--is a factor here, as I think this could be a nail biter. But Green Bay’s league-best big play ability, their record and experience at coach and QB, and their ability to create turnovers seals the deal.
Give up the points and play the Under...
Packers 27
Panthers. 22
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