NFL WEEK SEVEN PICKS ATS & OVER/UNDERS
GAME OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks -2 43 GW [O]
We trust Patrick Mahomes as one of the sport’s top three QBs--and former ‘Hawks RB, Kenneth Walker is playing with a chip on his shoulder after the Seattle braintrust let him--and the world--know they didn’t think he was an every-down back.
The Gulls won a Lombardi, they’ve earned respect, but I don’t get behind O-Lines that give up five sacks in consecutive games, or a QB who gets picked more than a Bedouin’s nose--2nd most in the league--with a QB rating of 77.4, good for 28th in the sport.
Seattle’s rushing defense is excellent, KC’s, maybe a little better; both yield just 3.5 YPR---but the the Arrowheads average 160 YPG on the ground--5.5 YPR. The Seahawks run game is good for 18th “best.”
Kevin Walker has to be itching to show his former team how wrongheaded they were about him.
Seattle’s pass defense is statistically elite, but when you look at their game logs, the unit may be anything but. The only top 15 quarterback they’ve faced in 2026 was Brock Purdy two weeks ago. He threw two TDs and the Niners scored 32 points in a 3 point win. In Week Three, Marcus Mariota, at home, backing up the injured Jayden Daniels, scorched the ‘Hawks with three TD passes, no picks, and a 110 passer rating. The Gulls also lost to a struggling Bo Nix and the Broncos.
Seattle’s elite secondary beat an inconsistent Drake Maye, the inexplicably disappointing Justin Herbert, and Arizona’s very under-manned Jacoby Brisset.
Patrick Mahomes is gifted athletically and plays for a Mount Rushmore play caller in Andy Reid. They will give Seattle their toughest test of the year.
It won’t be any prettier for Sam Darnold, the worst QB in football under pressure, and nobody calls more exotic, disguised, blitzes than Chief’s DC, Steve Spagnuolo.
The wrong team is favored in this one...Take The two point Road Dogs--and we’re going agiant the grain--and two excellent defenses--and calling the Over.
Chiefs 27
Seahawks 26
LOCK OF THE WEEK
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons +2.5 51 LW [U]
During the first two years as San Fran’s Head Honcho, Kyle Shanahan’s group were winless in the Eastern time zone--0-6
Since 2019, the Niners have either flown out early to adapt to the time zone or decided to stay on the East Coast between back-to-back road games. That move paid off; the Prospectors have dominated, going 17-5 and are 7-1 in extended-stay East Coast road trips.
As of Week Seven in 2026 they are the NFL’s best team.
The Birds of Prey can surely run the football and play decent defense, but just don’t have the organizational or QB stability to match up well with an elite team--San Fran is top seven or better in nearly every important stat--on both sides of the ball.
The late line change--down from 4.5 to 2.5 Makes this a safe Lock of the Week. The Under, barely, is our Totals call
49ers 30
Falcons 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans +2.5 36.5 O/U
The 36.5 Total is the lowest O/U of the 2026 campaign...
Both squads are coming off huge upsets versus division foes. The Browns 13-10 at home versus the Crows; the Titans 26-20 against Indy--off a late blocked punt, no less.
Excepting a 23 point shellacking from division rival Houston in Week Five, and the season-opening 13-point home loss to the Jets, the boys from Nashville have lost four games by 6 points or less.
Tennessee is the fifth youngest team in the NFL, their core talent is under 25, and under contract, and last week they showed they are starting to buy into Robert Saleh as HC, and Mike Borgonzi as GM.
Just the kind of matchup Cleveland--at 4-2, tied for first in the brutal AFC North, and the second youngest team in the league--might take lightly.
If the Spread was 5 or above, we may have considered making this an Upset Special...
We’ll stick with Cleveland scoring a late touchdown to secure a close contest. The Over is our confident play.
Browns 26
Titans 16
UPSET SPECIAL
New York Giants @ Houston Texans -10.5 43.5. US [U]
I think John Harbaugh’s Giants are way undervalued in this baby despite an injury list that has Giants fans in tears, and even though J.J. McCarthy will start at QB for the ineffective Jameis Winston.
How, in the name of Lombardi and God do these Giants of New York lead the NFC East at 3-2-1.
To us, Coach Harbaugh will always have the most punchable face in America--and as the second best HC record--after Mike Tomlin-- in history as an Under Dog, and/or a Road Dog.
According to Fox News and yahoo.com:
Overall Road Record
• Straight-Up (SU): 99–67–1
• Against the Spread (ATS): 94–78–9 (54.6% cover rate)
As a Road Underdog ("Road Dog")
• Straight-Up (SU): 35–35–1
Against the Spread (ATS): 43–25–3 (63.2% cover rate)
9-4 ATS mark specifically when traveling as a deep road underdog (+7 or more).
All-Time Rankings & Records
• Road Playoff Wins: Ranked #1 all-time. John Harbaugh holds the NFL record for the most road playoff victories by a head coach in NFL history (8), surpassing Hall of Fame coaches Tom Landry and Tom Coughlin.
• Playoff Underdog ATS: Ranked in the top tier (Top 3) all-time. Among coaches with at least 10 playoff appearances, Harbaugh ranks alongside Doug Pederson at the top of postseason ATS cover efficiency, holding a ~65% cover rate when catching points in the postseason.
Playoff Betting Split Breakdown
As an Postseason Underdog 8–6 SU 11–3 ATS He has won 8 games outright as an underdog, covering in 11 of those 14 opportunities.
As a Postseason Road Dog 7–5 SU 10–2 ATS 7 of his historic 8 road playoff wins came as an outright underdog, yielding an elite 83.3% cover rate.
Given most of Big Blue’s skilled players won’t be available for a while, Houston should be a legitimate 6-7 point Favorite....
10.5?...No Way...
BTW, before I would ever try assaulting Coach Harbaugh’s legendary Most Punchable Face in America, I’d shake his hand and buy the future HOFer a drink.
The Shit Kickers should win, the Giants should Cover. We’re calling the Under.
Texans 26
Giants 16
STEELERS GAME
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints +2 44.5 [U]
I truly believe --or want to believe--my Steelers found something permanent, offensively, to build on from their late OT comeback win against the Mateys in Tampa last Sunday--but did they answer the burning questions this NFL campaign has raised?
Are DK Metcalf and A-A-Ron Rodgers finally synching up?
Is the young and promising offensive line coming together?
Is Jaylen Warren a true “cowbell” back: consistent, durable, dependable?
The Beatified Ones are in search of their own answers:
Can Taylor Shough turn into a true franchise quarterback?
Can the Saints overcome injuries to receivers and RBs against one of the best game-changing defenses in the league?
Did they make the better decision to arrive in Paris Monday to acclimate their players to the foreign environment--weather, civil unrest--and create the optimal performance window for their players?
We think they did.
Although to be accurate, the records of teams that spend 5-6 days in a European city as opposed to those who arrive Friday mornings--to render the “jet lag” effect moot--is remarkably even. There is no advantage I could identify from either the “stay and play” or the “arrive as late as possible” strategies.
****Flight times to most of Europe are in the 9-10 hour range. 12-17 hour treks beyond that window--Australia, Tokyo, the UAE--will almost certainly show early arrivals are necessary.***
Matchup stats show minimal difference in offensive production--both teams field pedestrian offenses, and both have improved during the first 1/3 of the season.
The Steelers defense can burn opponents like the English whack-jobs toasted Joanie de Arc in 1431. In every major category, Pittsburgh’s “D” is Top 8 or better.
New Orleans defense would have trouble lighting a match. In every major defensive stat, the Holy Men rank no better than 26th in the NFL.
I had NawLeans as my pick the moment I learned they were arriving in Paris on Monday after their Week 6 win against the G-Men in New York, because I believe doing so is a definite advantage.
But....the Science says I’m wrong...
When I go by my own ”system” checks--HC, QB, Defense; Turnover Differential, Matchup Stats--the Steelers -2 is a huge bargain.
Even then, I was reluctant to change a pick I was sure of until finding out how badly the Saints struggle against tight ends....
I’m betting Mike McCarthy has the same info.
Steelers should win by ten--Under the Number...
Steelers 26
Saints 16
Here’s the entire Week slate.. .Per usual, my picks are in bold italic. Specials & Totals calls are in [BOLD ITALIC BRACKETS]...
NFL WEEK 7 ODDS OVER/UNDERS (POINT TOTALS)
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears -3 50 [U]
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints +2 44.5 [U]
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons +4.5 51 LW [U]
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens -3 50.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers -3 44.5
New York Giants @ Houston Texans -10.5 43.5. US [U]
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings -6 42
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets -5 39.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans +1.5 36.5 O/U
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals +4 43
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -3.5 53
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders +4 47
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks -2 43 GW [O]
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 44.5 [U]
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