WEEK SEVEN TNF PICK ATS

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - PICK AGAINST THE SPREAD 

When: Thursday, October 22 at 8:20 pm ET

Where: Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois

Channel: Prime Video

Patriots vs. Bears Odds:

Moneyline: Bears -148, Patriots +124

Spread: Bears -3 (-102), Patriots +3 (-118)

Total: Over 50.5 (-115), Under 50.5 (-105)

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears -3  50.5   [U]

Warning:  Your resident moron--The Gairzo--is blistering the field with a 1-5 record handicapping Thursday Night Football.   Here is his professional advice on how to bet tonights game:

Read this well-researched, beautifully written column...

At the end, you will see we have selected the Bears to Cover the Spread giving 3 points to the Patriots...

Which should compel you to take the three points, and bet your house, your car, your harem, your dog, and your local priest on the Patriots!

ANALYSIS

You would be hard-pressed to find two well-coached, playoff contending NFL teams more evenly matched than these TNF combatants.

 Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are playing like first and third overall picks, respectively, should play--like franchise QBs who should keep their teams in the hunt for a Lombardi for the next 10-15 years.

The match-up stats reveal amazing symmetry and some weird anomalies:

• Chicago’s 6th best scoring defense will face the Pats’ 5th best

• The Bears hold opponents to 90.5 RYPG; NE yields 91.8...

• Each defense holds opponents to under 212 Passing YPG

• The Patriots gain 374.2 YPG, (7th)--Chicago 388.3, (5th)...

• Yet...Chicago allows a pitiful 6.0 YPP--next to last in the league to NE’s respectable, and very average, (16th), 5.2...

• The Pats are seventh best in Red Zone Defense %, DA Bears 22nd....

• 
  

And this little nugget from the folks at VSIN.com

It’s also hard not to like Mike Vrabel’s history in these situations. Under Vrabel, the Patriots are 5-2 straight-up and 5-1-1 against the spread as road underdogs.

Still, to this struggling analyst, the lean in talent, scheme, performance and consistency goes to Da Bears, but this is anyone's game--and Mike Vrabel is one of my favorite coaches.  

TRENDING

Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games as a home favorite.

Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 7-0 in Bears last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Bears are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 7.

Under is 6-0 in Bears last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 home games.

Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NEW ENGLAND is 38-8 SU and 33-13 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016

NEW ENGLAND is 21-30-3 ATS (41.2%) as an underdog since 2021

THE PICK

If we stick to our system--The Pats get the edge in coaching....The QBS are pretty equal, but Caleb gets the slight nod...The Bears are at home on a short week--but there really is not the advantage some of us think it should.

This matchup screams a close and low-scoring game.  We’re going with the home team to barely Cover, barely Under the Number

Bears 27

Patriots 22