NFL WEEK SIX ODDS, LINES, O/Us - ATS
Updated: 3 days ago
NFL 2025 WEEK FIVE = 7 - 8 2025 OVERALL. = 37 - 41 - 1
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE = 18 - 18
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 2 - 3 CUMULATIVE = 12 - 13
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 2 - 3 O/U OF THE WEEK 1 – 4
STEELERS 2 - 3 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 30 - 31
Like Kill Bill’s Uma Thurman, yours truly is trying to punch his way through a coffin and six feet of dirt to breathe the clean air of credibilty--after burying his 2026 gambling prospects with three opening weeks of ineptitude.
The good news is, my trademark resilience has kicked in and I’ve managed to slam through my pine box and a couple feet of dirt. The better news...there’s 2/3+ of the season to go--and the oddsmakers are about as clueless as the handicappers.
As teams begin revealing who they really are it becomes just a bit easier to call these games...
We’ll know if we are correct Tuesday morning. Let’s get after it...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers -1 52.5 GW [U]
As usual, the Dallas Cowboys are the NFL’s most over-hyped, overrated, over-covered team in the NFL. This is my annual--there can always be others--column exposing the CowBitches as the NFL’s version of Donald Trump--they know how to get ratings, and the networks love those ratings. Other than that, they are bring no excellence, their star is tainted, tattered, and fading fast.
Don’t believe me? Since 1997...
27, twenty-seven, NFL teams have won more playoff games than your Dallas Cowboys...
Their post-season record = 4 -12...
During that span, their playoff .250 win percentage is better than only Detroit and Miami...
They have not sniffed even a conference championship game in 30 years!
The 2026 Dallas Team is a another candidate to repeat that sad history. Their offense is a legitimate top 7-10 unit in offensive scoring, yards gained per play, third-down conversion, Red Zone scoring percentage, and points per play.
Their defense couldn’t stop a crippled turtle--dead last in YPP surrendered...Opp. Rushing yards per game, and defensive 3rd down%...31st in YPG allowed...30th In yards per pass surrendered...29th in YPR allowed...
Meanwhile, in a small Wisconsin city, the Packers are coming of a total domination of Chicago--albeit sans Caleb Williams... Green Bay is missing Micah Parsons, LB, Edgerrin Cooper, and DT, Javon Hargrave.
Statistically, the defense isn’t perfect...but...
According to Next Gen Stats,
Green Bay ranks 5th in overall pressure rate (42.4%) and 3rd in pressure rate when rushing four or fewer defenders (42.7%).
The defense has excelled at creating negative plays, anchored by strong starts from Lukas Van Ness and Edgerrin Cooper before his injury. They started the season pacing the league in tackles for loss.
Through the first five weeks, the Packers rank 4th in the NFL in total defense (allowing just 271.0 yards per game) and sit 8th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. They are also 7th in sacks (14) and 4th in takeaways (9).”
Jordan Love loves how the Packers’ braintrust, acquired veteran O-Linemen to shore up the too young and ineffective unit who failed to protect him.
From NFL.com, Love’s stat sheet since his line has stabilized:
• Week 4 (vs. Buccaneers): Love bounced back by completing 73.3% of his passes (22 of 30) for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 17-14 victory.
• Week 5 (vs. Bears): Love put together a masterful, elite performance. He completed 80.6% of his passes (25 of 31) for 367 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, earning a career-high 137.5 passer rating.
We’re betting the Packers are ascending, and Dallas isn’t--Under the Number...
Packers 26
Cowboys 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 43.5 LW [U]
We call it a lock for a reason.
The Jaguars stayed in London after last week’s two-point win over Philly.
The Texans did admirable leg work trying to manage the 14 hour-flight and the logistics to minimize jet lag.
History shows this dynamic to be a significant advantage for the team that doesn’t have to scramble to adjust, has practiced five full days--ala their usual routine--and doesn’t have to even think about their body clock, travel arrangements, or family matters.
We believe this Spread should be 2-3 points higher.
Take The “Wires, let Vegas have the 2.5 points--we’re cautiously calling the Under.
Jaguars 23
Texans 19
UPSET SPECIAL
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons +3.5 48 US [U]
We jumped on this line early thinking Vegas was over-valuing Chicago after the Packers embarrassed them last Sunday on their home turf--and Caleb Williams won’t be behind center for Da Bears.
The public and Sharp money favors Atlanta, and that should curb my enthusiasm for this pick--Yeah, no...
To pour some vinegar. on the wound, the Bears defensive line is running on empty; injuries have severely depleted that unit. For Michael Penix and Atlanta that is a “pretty, pretty, pretty, good” developement.
And, oh, BTW, Atlanta should be able to run the ball well enough to open the gates for Penix.
Fun matchup to watch: Penix leads the league with a 131.3 third-down passer rating. Chicago fields the third best third-down defense.
Statistically, these are evenly matched teams. We expect a lot closer game than people think.
We’ll take Atlanta with the Hook, Under the Total...
Falcons 27
Bears 17
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams -12.5 52 O/U
Los Angeles should be ugly, and angry for this game. These Rams were the pre-season favorite to win the Super Bowl.
After their season-opening 27-7 drubbing at the hands of the Niners, the Big Horns are 2-2 and have been in every game.t
With Aaron Donald’s return official, we just can’t see the Jacoby Brisset-led Red Birds scoring over 20 points. We think L. A. will score at least 27 against a Cardinals group still adjusting to a new regime.
The Spread is just too wide to back Los Angeles. The Birds will Cover, and the Under is our confident call...
Rams 27
Cardinals 20
STEELERS GAME
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 38.5 [O]
We love Tampa bay’s Jalon Daniels, the undrafted rookie QB out of Kansas; he is backing up Baker Mayfield who is still out since dislocating his thumb in Week Three.
Book on Daniels said he has short arms, but cannon-strength velocity. Scouts were also wary of his footwork and arm mechanics. I’ve watched him only a couple of games, but to my untrained eye, the kid can hurt you from anywhere on the field with his arms or legs.
Steelers head coach, Mike McCarthy, can hurt the rookie from the sideline. The Pittsburgh native is 13-6 against rookie QBs during his coaching career. Normally, I don’t put heavy weight on that kind of matchup--any decent head coach should game-plan well enough to beat most rookie quarterbacks, but Pittsburgh DC, Patrick Graham, and his group, have been leaking that the Steelers are ready to install an apparently much anticipated blitz package. I hope the defensive staff will plant a spy to contain Daniels--he is quicker than any undrafted rookie Q I’ve seen, he’s also a gitfted athlete.
But...there’s no better time to install a new blitz package than when you’re facing a rookie QB.
Steeler fans should watch the Matey’s rush defense try to minimize the Steelers 2026 MVP, so far, Jaylen Warren--but we’re betting it doesn’t matter. Tampa Bay and head coach, Todd Bowles have struggled defending tight ends this year. From the Bucccaneers own website:
Game-by-Game Defensive Performance vs TEs:
• Week 1 at Cincinnati Bengals (L 27-33): Mike Gesicki heavily exploited the middle of the field, catching 5 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown, while Drew Sample added 3 catches for 19 yards.
• Week 2 vs. Cleveland Browns (L 19-23): Harold Fannin Jr. caught 5 passes for 54 yards, and Blake Whiteheart hauled in a touchdown reception.
• Week 3 vs. Minnesota Vikings (L 16-23): Tampa Bay had its best performance against tight ends, limiting star tight end T.J. Hockenson to just 2 catches for 11 yards on 4 targets.
• Week 4 vs. Green Bay Packers (L 14-17): Tucker Kraft hurt the Bucs with 6 catches for 42 yards and a touchdown, Mark Redman chipped in 2 catches for 29 yards, and Jonnu Smith added a 19-yard reception.
• Week 5 at Dallas Cowboys (W 24-16): The defense tightened up against the Cowboys' tight end group, holding Jake Ferguson to 3 catches for 19 yards and Luke Schoonmaker to 1 catch for 9 yards.
Pittsburgh recently signed veteren TE, Robert Tonyan, there should e several plays where he, Pat Friermuth and Darnell “Mount” Washington are on the field together.
We’ve just given Coach McCarthy a solid game plant to exploit the Matey’s main offensive and defensive vulnerabilities.
We think A-A=Ron Rodgers has the horses to best Home Dog Tampa’s passing “D’--and the Steelers defense will torment Jalon Daniels all afternoon--play the Over.
Steelers 26
Buccaneers 23
NFL WEEK 6 ODDS OVER/UNDERS (POINT TOTALS)
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos +3 41.5 [O]
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 43.5 LW [U]
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons +3.5 48 US [U]
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns +4 41.5
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts -7 44
New York Jets @ New England Patriots -7 44.5
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants +1 44.5
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles -1 42
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 38.5 [O]
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams -12.5 52. O/U
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs -8 42.5
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders +6 53
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers -1 52.5 GW [U]
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers -7.5 50.5 [U]
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