NFL WEEK EIGHT - ATS & O/U PICKS
NFL WEEK EIGHT PICKS ATS
NFL 2025 WEEK SEVEN = 9 - 4 -1 2025 OVERALL. = 52 - 52 - 3
WEEKLY O/U = 4 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE = 26 - 24
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 18 - 17
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 3 - 4 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 – 4
STEELERS 4 - 3 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 44 - 41
Our Tally Sheet looks respectable this week for the first time in the 2026 NFL season. Our Premium Picks--cumulative O/Us and Specials--are above the .500 Mendoza line--at .518, we’re just short of the break even number of .525.
For the now, nearly half-gone season, we’ve improved our percentage and are finally at .500
When we compare our 2026 performance against pundits who get paid a lot more than me, it’s easy to see how difficult it is to go against Vegas. As inept as yours truly has been this year, I’m still out-performing five of the seven guys at CBSsports.com...
Kudos to Dave Richard, nine games above .500, and Jamey Eisenberg is smoking the Internet at a .565 Clip
Vinnie Iyer at the sporting news .com Is 50-57 On the year.
The reason for this mediocre handicapping is the deliberate design of the league--worst-to-first order for drafts and waiver wire, equitable scheduling; salary cap, limited free agency, (franchise tag options).
Beyond that, I’ve never seen a year with more major injuries to skill players. Lamar, Herbert, Parsons, Garret, Donald, Bosa, McCaffrey, et al. Add to that the shortened pre-season and inconsistent officiating, and, we end up creating a recipe for week-to-week unpredictability.
I read a serious article in August predicting the Rams would join the Cheating Pats as the only undefeated team to win 16 regular-season games. I thought the Bolts and Texans would be dominant this year...
Before I get too depressed, let’s get to the Week Eight slate...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills -3.5 54.5 GW [U]
The Bills are coming off their bye,and go against the team that has a habit of making super-stud Bills QB, Josh Allen look very average. In his six starts against the Crows, Allen has completed just 59.3% of his passes, and just 211 PYPG, with a sub-standard 6.06 yards-per-attempt average. His QB rating is a mere 82.7; he has also thrown five TD passes against only one interception.
The Magpies will get several key players back from the injured list, including two starting O-Linemen, stud D-Linemen, Broderick Washington, and John Jenkins, S, Kyle Hamilton and everything LB, Roquan Smith--and Jackson...
Buffalo will welcome back DT, Ed Oliver, DT, TJ Sanders; LBs Bradley Chub and Joe Andreesen. These missing players have made playing stout defense a difficult venture for the Bills in 2026.
Baltimore is getting a lot of love from the public bettors due to Jackson’s return, and the bounce-back factor after last week’s embarrassing 35-13 loss at Cincy; the Sharp money is also behind them. Almost every pundit is calling for the Crows to Cover.
I’m picking the Bills to make a statement, at home and beat the Spread.
The Public and the Sharps are betting the Over. Our theory is, with both squads returning defensive starters, and Lamar Jackson likely to be rusty, we think both defenses will stop the shootout before anyone draws their gun. We’re calling the Under
Bills 27
Ravens 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 46.5 LW [U]
The Colts are tanking, and this handicapper isn’t sure that’s a wise decision.
To get Sauce Gardner--a stud cover CB--they gave the Jets their #1 draft picks for 2026 & ’27. That’s probably why owner Carly Irsay-Gordon fired GM, Chris Ballard two weeks ago, put RB, Jonathan Taylor on the trading block, publicly discusses QB Daniel Jones benching, and publicly let coach Shane Steichen know he better turn things around--starting yesterday,
We might, in true wise-ass fashion, say if the Baby Horses aren’t tanking, they should be.
Either way, an Indy squad, who thought they had found a franchise QB in Jones, a team with legitimate playoff talent and aspirations is stumbling to find its footing--like a new-born horse.
In Jacksonville, things are coming together as fast as they are falling apart for the Colts. Trevor Lawrence, the former first overall draft pick, finally found a head coach--Liam Coen--who believes in him and is scheming to minimize the QB’s flaws and maximize his gifts.
Lawrence finally has a solid defense to bail him out of the occasional mistake. Jax is third in points allowed, 8th in 3rd down conversion percentage; fourth in Red Zone Touchdowns surrendered--and set the league standard for rushing defense--giving up only 72.2 RYPG and a paltry 3.2 YPR.
The Spotted Cats are third best in Turnover Margin; 4th best in protecting the ball--Indy last and 27th in the same categories,
Yowza!!!...But Wait...
The Jags are vulnerable through the air; surrendering 273.3 YPG (30th), and a whopping 8.0 YPP, (29th)
Question is, can Jones and the Indy offense exploit that weakness?
We don’t think so. On paper, it’s everyone’s Lock of the Week--which means a 52-4 beatdown by the Colts is a real possibility.
We’ll go with the Wires to Cover the 7.5, Under the Number...
Jaguars 26
Colts 17
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos +1.5 40.5 O/U
I don’t normally call for the Over as an O/U Special in a divisional game. Typically division rivals play much more physical, conservative football. They know each other’s tendencies, style, and play-calling.
This game features play-calling by two of the best to ever do it, Andy Reid, and Sean Payton. But we have to be careful. Since Sean Payton resumed play-calling duties, his Broncos have gone 3-0 but have performed worse in Third Down Efficiency--and that ain’t all...
Metric Weeks 1–4 (Davis Webb) Weeks 5–7 (Sean Payton) Total
Offense 280.0 yards / game 193.3 yards / game
Third Down 21 of 53 (39.6%) 7 of 37 (18.9%)
Bo Nix PYPG 224.2 yards/game 115.0 yards/game
You can bet, the regression has to sting Payton. We’re betting the Wild Horses come out smooth and polished against a KC defense that, until last week against the Gulls was becoming dominant.
Andy Reid is also smarting from having his teams’ ass handed to him by Mike McDonald’s Seahawks last week.
We penciled the Arrowheads for this game--until we looked at the dual game logs...
Kansas City Season Performance
Week Opponent Rank H/A/N Score
Week 7 at Seattle 1 Away L 3-20
Week 6 Chargers 25 Home W 22-6
Week 4 at Las Vegas 23 Away W 30-27
Week 3 at Miami 32 Away W 24-10
Week 2 Indianapolis 22 Home W 33-30
Week 1 Denver 11 Home W 31-10
Denver Season Performance
Week Opponent Rank H/A/N Score
Week 7 at Arizona 31 Away W 30-16
Week 6 Seattle 1 Home W 17-14
Week 5 at Chargers 25 Away W 23-17
Week 4 at San Fran 5 Away L 14-24
Week 3 LA Rams 7 Home W 30-26
Week 2 Jacksonville 2 Home W 20-13
Week 1 at Kansas City 6 Away L 10-31
A careful look at the above results tells us the Broncs have faced the class of the NFL-or what is supposed to be the class of the NFL--San Fran, Seattle, KC, the Rams, and the Jags--going 3-2 in those five contests is no small feat.
Who did KC Play?
The answer to that question will tell you why we are changing our pick to the Home Dogs, where, historically, Denver is excellent--undefeated in 2026...
Broncos 26
Chiefs 24
UPSET SPECIAL
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions -3.5 46 US [U]
The Detroit Lions are, maybe the most overrated team in football---though they will never approach the inflated opinion Cowboys fans have of their favorite team --or the Cowboys opinion of themselves.
If the Lions aren’t overrated, they sure as hell are one of the most unbalanced teams around--
Top 3-5 in every offensive metric,
Dead Last in:
Passing Yards allowed, and Total yards allowed...
31st in TDs surrendered per game...
28th in 3rd Down defense...
27th in Red Zone Defense...
27th in opponents QB Completion %
Not only unbalanced in offensive vs. defensive output but in offensive production
Lions pass the ball 65.80% of the time...
Lions run the ball 34.20% of the time...
When presented with a great offense vs, a great defense, this die-hard Steelers fan goes with the defense.
Brian Flores is the best DC in the business--he’s who the Steelers should’ve hired to replace Mike Tomlin. The Viking defense will make it a long day for Jared Goff...
Take the Vikings and the field goal...We aren’t so sure this divisional tussel will be the shootout most people expect. We’re calling the Under.
Vikings 26
Lions 16
STEELERS GAME
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 39.5 [U]
This game is destined to be an AFC North classic. The matchup stats show us two differently structured teams that are evenly matched.
The Steeler defense is top 5-7 in every metric, and the Browns don’’t protect DeShaun Watson well; he gets sacked a full 10% of the time.
Cleveland’s defense is at least a tier below the Steelers’. Pittsburgh is top five in TO margin; they force more takeaways and give the ball away less than these Browns.
Cleveland holds the division-leading tiebreaker against their turnpike rivals due to a last second 56 yard field goal that won their Week Four contest.
This is a revenge game for the Steelers and a potential statement game for the Browns. The safest bet is to understand this will a physical contest decide by six points or less. More likely a last second field goal for a walk-off win.
Just a hunch...Steelers win; the Brownies Cover...
Under the Number...
Steelers 20
Browns 19
Here’s the entire Week slate.. per usual, my picks are in bold italic. Totals calls are in [BOLD ITALIC BRACKETS]
NFL Week 8 odds Over/unders (point totals)
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers -3.5 47 [U]
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills -3 54.5 GW [U]
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 47
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys -6.5 53
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions -3.5 46 US [U]
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 46.5 LW [U]
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets -1 44.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 39.5 [U]
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 45
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams -6.5 45
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos +1.5 42 O/U
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins. +7 44.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders -4 41 [O]
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks -3 46.5 [U]
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