• Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK EIGHT - ATS


2022 NFL WEEK EIGHT – ATS


NFL 2022 WEEK SEVEN – TALLY SHEET

WEEK SEVEN = 8 – 6 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 48 – 59 – 1

WEEK SEVEN 0/U 3 – 3 OVER/UNDER CUMULATIVE 25 – 24

SPECIALS 3 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 16 – 12

GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 4

UPSET SPECIAL 6 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 4 – 3

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 41 – 36



GAME OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns 45 GW [O]

A ton of public money—then Shark wagers went Cleveland’s way when Jamar Chase was ruled out of this AFC North battle of Ohio. The Spread opened at 4.5 then fell like a hot rock when Chase was scratched.


This game is not a hard call because Burrows has Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Mike Thomas as receiving options—AKA the best WR corps in the NFL…


Okay maybe it is a hard call. Cleveland has Nick Chub who has averaged 5.0+ YPR since the first time he stepped on an NFL field. Next to him is sick fast Kareem Hunt who can turn a short throw pitch, or handoff into a quick six with every touch of the ball.


The 2-5 Browns scored wins over the Trubisky Steelers and the Baker Mayfield Panthers.


With the surprisingly reliable Jacoby Brisset minimizing mistakes, and a top five O-Line, Cleveland can stay in every game, but how many of them can they win?


Leaving out the 23-point loss to the Pats, Cleveland lost four other games by a combined nine points.


Cincy lost three games by a total of eight points.


It’s seems most every team is an untimely penalty, a dropped interception, a poorly run pass rout, a missed coverage or some unfortunate combination of misfortune away from having a much better record…


Life in the NFL…


In the end, this game is an easy call. The Bengals have been through the gauntlet; they know what it takes to win; they know how not to lose.


Many analysts’ previewing this contest mention how Cleveland still does Cleveland-esque things or how the Browns revert to being the Browns…


I don’t think they will solve that puzzle even if they cover against Burrow and the Bengals.


Lay the field goal play the Over.


Bengals 26

Browns 21




LOCK OF THE WEEK


Tennessee Titans (+1) vs. Houston Texans 40.5 LW [O]


To be honest, we would normally pass on this Special because there isn’t a legitimate Lock on the week 8 slate.


Tennessee would be a field goal favorite if not for the ankle that will keep game manager extraordinaire, Ryan Tannehill, on the sideline.


Enter Malik Willis…The shortish, incredibly athletic, cannon-armed phenom out of Liberty College via Auburn.


I’ll provide you with no stats, no team or individual match-up trends here—in fact just like three sites I use for research recommend, my call would be to pass on this game, and if you do bet—don’t bet in the Titans.


Remember, you’ve been warned.


Three elements undergird my call for this game. The Shitkickers are a bad football team even if Lovie Smith is their coach.


Willis will be handing the ball to Derek Henry, who has made a habit of gashing the Texans even when they didn’t give up a league low 165 YPG and the third worst YPR, (5.2).


Look for Titan HC, Mike Vrabel and OC, Todd Downing, to implement more RPO plays for Willis who has been clocked in the forty at 4.37. Even with Lovie Smith making the calls, Houston’s defense will be challenged to adjust to Henry’s brute force and Willis’ speed, and unpredictable impact.


The Titans return LBs, Bud Dupree, Dylan Cole, and Rashad Weaver which should bolster a leaky defense already the NFL’s best at preventing 3rd Down Conversions. 27.78%.


You heard it here first: Malik Willis has a breakout day in Houston; Titans win big—Over the Number.


Titans 27.

Texans 15



UPSET SPECIAL


Washington Commanders (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts 39.5 US [O]


Frank Reich is making moves like he’s sitting on the biggest burner of an electric stove he doesn’t realize is attached to his ass. He’s walking around with it, going shopping, even playing with his grandkids—trying to determine the cause of his non-stop sweating—and looking for a snow drift to sit in.


First, he benches Matt Ryan, who should be awarded combat pay due to his PFF ranked worst NFL offensive line—a unit that subjected Ryan to pressure on 40% of his drop backs.


During the offseason, Reich watched his owner angrily overreact to a disastrous late ’21 season collapse by punting Carson Wentz, the franchise quarterback they acquired only a year before, to D.C.


Matt Ryan was seen by the entire Colts brainless trust—a 38 year-old pocket passer—to be the answer. They were oblivious to the reality their receiving group was razor thin in talent, and their offensive line was worse.


Indy owner, Robert Irsay made the changes that set Matt Ryan up for certain failure. Ryan’s replacement, Sam Ehlinger, like Wentz and Ryan, will end up being another casualty of Irsay’s endless battle with common sense.


How these Colts can be favored over any football team in the ACC, let alone the NFL, is up for debate.


The Washington Commanders are better than that, even with Taylor Heinicke starting for the injured Wentz—uh-oh, there goes the revenge story line.


Indy fans are hoping RB Jonathan Taylor shows some of the comeback moves he flashed last week.


We don’t think it matters. The Colts giving points to any NFL team is value we can’t pass up.


Commanders 26

Colts 16



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 39.5 [U]


With this ninth tilt in London for Jacksonville and Rookie HC, Nathanial Hackett, busting his blueberry on international play, treating Jax as the home team isn’t a bad move—neither is seeing a considerable advantage for the Spotted Cats


The Jaguars can attack the Broncos where their defense is barely average--on the ground…That matchup is worse for the Broncos defense when you consider Travis Etienne is barely a tick behind Khali Herbert of the Bears and Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III with his 6.1 YPR average.


Denver’s offense is as mystifyingly awful as their defense is stubbornly good. The have given up above 19 points exactly once all year –to division rival Vegas on the road—if their offense was even slightly below average, the Wild Horses would easily be 6-1.


All of the above compels any intelligent Totals call to scream “Under”—which of course means a final score of 48-45.


Alas, we believe in our analysis:


· The Broncos are more likely to score touchdowns on defense than offense—even if QB, Russell Wilson wasn’t nursing a gimpy hamstring.

· The Jags will sustain long drives with Travis Etienne torturing the Denver run defense.

· Jet lag is likely to kick in at some point during the game.

· Jacksonville is accustomed to the logistics and tricks of playing in London. Denver is not.


We’re laying the points and taking the Under.


Jaguars 23

Broncos 15


As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated:


Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45.5 [U]

Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 39.5 O/U

Carolina Panthers (+4.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons 41

Chicago Bears (+10) vs. Dallas Cowboys 42.5

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Detroit Lions 51.5

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings 48.5

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints 49.5

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. New York Jets 40.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (+11) vs. Philadelphia Eagles 43 [O]

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans 40.5 LW [O]

Washington Commanders (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts 39.5 US [U]

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams 43.5

New York Giants (+2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks 44.5

Green Bay Packers (+11.5) vs. Buffalo Bills 47.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns 45 GW [O]

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