NFL 2024 WEEK SEVEN = 10 - 4 2024 OVERALL. = 53 - 34 - 5 .610
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 24 - 16. .600
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 2 - 3 CUMULATIVE = 17 - 9 - 3 .654
GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 1 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 2 -1 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 - 3
STEELERS 4 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 41 -25 - 3 .621
NFL 2024 - WEEK EIGHT
GAME OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers -4.5 47 GW [O]
Lot of pundits are dissing the Cowboys this week, but to me, this is exactly the kind of game the ’Boys win seemingly every year; a win that propels them to the post-season where they have been irrelevant for almost three decades.
(I can’t express the inherent joy of writing that sentence.) Ahem...
After the bye week, the previous three seasons, Dallas is 22-9. For his career, Dallas HC, Mike McCarthy, is 14-5 ATS and 14-5 SU after a week off.
The Niners are nursing injuries, and while Brock Purdy has exceeded 243.5 pass yards in 10 of his last 12 home games, he has regressed this year with Christian McCaffrey on IR. WR, Brandon Aiyuk, recently joined C-Mac on that list. WR, Jauan Jennings, is doubtful, Deebo and fellow wideout, Chris Conley are question marks--so is George Kittle.
The Gold Miners are a deep group and Kyle Shanahan is a great play-caller--well, most of the time. Colin Cowherd breaks it down:
Here are some trends courtesy of Oddssharks.com:
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas' last 8 games
Dallas are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
And these little nuggets from vsin.com
Meanwhile, the 49ers are just 12-17 ATS as home favorites of 7 or less under Kyle Shanahan. They’re also 14-21 SU and 15-20 ATS in October games with Shanahan on the sidelines, so this is a time of year in which San Francisco historically struggles.
The Cowboys, sans All-Galaxy LB, Micah Parsons, are in a defensive free fall. San Fran can still rush the ball and score a ton of points. Dallas’ defense is barely floating above the bottom of the rush defense barrel--they are even worse rushing the ball, but Dak has the offensive weapons to keep up with the hobbled 49ers offense...
Both these squads are deep enough with elite coaches...You can bet Mike Zimmer will have Dallas ready to turn it around, +4.5 keeps this one close--the Over is our call here.
Cowboys 31
49ers 30
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos -7.5. 41.5 LW [U]
We’re calling this Lock because we nailed this line early, currently most books have it at -11.
The Broncos are improving as many pundits had predicted given Sean Payton’s coaching talent and Denver’s league leading defense--1st in RZ Defense, allowing lowest Yards per Pass, Points per Play, Yards per Play, and Touchdowns Per Game.
The Panthers suffer from an owner, a former Steelers minority owner, who learned nothing from his time in Rooneyville. David Tepper has fired Matt Ruhle and Frank Reich--both in season--the last two years. Pittsburgh has had two coaches in the last 33 years.
The worst part of Tepper’s hair trigger leaves the team with 5’ 9” 205 pound QB, Bryce Young, who according to several respected NFL execs is more like 185 pounds.
Drew Brees and Lamar Jackson are only slightly taller and future HOFers, but tiny QBs are still a risk--especially when the Panthers had C.J. Stroud as a draft option.
The punditry analysis is that Young was so fantastic at Alabama, he’s a can’t miss QB in the NFL. At the college level, no school out-recruits and brings in more Five-Star talent than the Tide. If Bryce Young were at Wake Forest or Baylor, his stats would have been commensurate with each institutions talent level.
Broncos Cover, Under the Number...
Broncos 23
Panthers 15
UPSET SPECIAL
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 48 US [U]
We love Baker Mayfield, his attitude, his ability to overcome adversity, and his success as Tampa’s new field general. He has made the Bucs a better team.
But it’s hard on any QB when your two best, possibly elite, receivers are nursing injuries; Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will sit the game out.
We don’t like backing down on Mayfield, but Kirk Cousins has his weapons ready to fire. This is a pick that values the much healthier Atlanta with 2.5 Points in their--er--our pocket.
We’re also breaking our own rule about changing a call after committing to one, but we had to rethink our Over call in light of the Mateys’ injury list, the interdivisional matchup, and Atlanta’s inconsistency.
Sometimes you gotta go with your gut...Even if that same gut contradicts itself.
Take the Birds of Prey, with 2.5 Points and the Under...
Falcons 23
Buccaneers 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK- THE STEELERS
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6 37.5. O/U
The popping sound you will hear the day the NFL brass yanks its head out of its ass, will sound like nuclear test on Bikini Island.
Every week I see more calls made on the field of play overturned via “Replay Assist.”
Since the inception of the absurd “Theatre of Challenges” in 1999, the NFL has tweaked the system and this year’s Replay Assist tweak is the first step the league is taking, hopefully, to eliminate challenge flags from being stuffed into different parts of a HC’s wardrobe.
Not to brag, but yours truly has been calling for a permanent, logical, practical, and far less time consuming replay system which simply states:
Replay Assist will only overturn calls or clarify situations on field refs missed or misinterpreted. PERIOD! Any “Call” during, pre, or post any play involving player behavior in the field of play or the “blame ” for such behavior shall be corrected, adjusted or changed exclusively by RA.
That means, for example, if the refs miss a pre-snap penalty, RA buzzes the ref, and the call is corrected. The standard for any correction via RA requires clear, convincing, and compelling visual evidence justifying an immediate correction...
The operative word is “immediate.” If you can’t discern the call was egregiously wrong within 15 seconds--the visual evidence isn't clear, compelling, or convincing--let the game move on.
Why screw the pooch, then inform the head coach with a traumatized retriever the poor animal was wrongly victimized?
RA applies to every conceivable situation game refs may miss or misinterpret--Pass interference...Who throws the first punch during a fight?..Missed procedure calls/holding, linemen downfield; possession...
Any Questionable call should be corrected immediately.
The most recent call that should have been corrected occurred on this play:
The league has already informed Mike Tomlin Minkah Fitzpatrick should not have been flagged for leverage. What good does that do if the Steelers had lost by a field goal?
The league needs to abandon the red flags and the coaches’ challenges. We have the technology to have remote referees review plays and make quick, accurate calls as the game unfolds--everything else is pretty lame theater.
Oh Yeah, The Game...
The Steelers are the superior football team in all three phases of the game. NY rushes the passer better than anyone in the league and could disrupt Russell Wilson’s offense but the Steelers O-Line, injury riddled as it is, has been holding up.
Interestingly, the G-men are the third worst team in the league, allowing opposing QBs to complete 70% of their passes. That tells me their secondary is suspect; The Giants may be sacking quarterbacks at the highest rate, but the reason is, many of them have time to go through their progressions.
Fans--even the Tomlin haters--believe Pittsburgh has stabilized the post-Ben era QB conundrum. The Black & Gold can’t afford to squander a potential division title by letting a less talented team beat them. Six of their last nine games are against divisional rivals, the other three are versus the Commandoes, Eagles, and KC.
This is a must game for Pittsburgh; they should win with fundamentally sound football--The
Over is one of our most confident calls of 2024.
Steelers 30
Giants 14
As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK 8 ODDS: OVER/UNDERS (POINT TOTALS)
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams +3 47 [U]
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns +8.5 42.5
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions -11.5 45.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans. -5 46.5
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars +4 49.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins -3.5 48
New York Jets @ New England Patriots +7 41.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 48 US [O]
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders +1 46
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers -7.5. 39.5
Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks +3 48
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5. 47.5
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos -7.5. 41.5 LW. [U]
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders +10 41.5
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers -4 48 GW [O]
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6 37.5. [O] O/U
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