NFL 2024 WEEK TWELVE = 9 - 5 2024 OVERALL. = 93 - 68 - 5 .578
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 47 - 29 .618
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 32 - 20 - 3 .615
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 4 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 6 – 4 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 - 4
STEELERS 8 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 79 - 49 - 3 .617
NFL 2024 - WEEK THIRTEEN
GAME OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) 50.5. GW [U]
This contest is exactly what a Game of the Week should be--two of the league’s best teams. And both clubs must navigate possible fatal flaws which could seriously undermine their chance to prevent KC from becoming the unprecedented winner of three straight Super Bowls.
Conversely, both teams have the skill position talent to overcome their respective warts and hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
The difference to this handicapper are the stories told by the defensive stats on both sides of the ball; on the ground, and through the air..
Baltimore’s pass defense is awful; their league best defensive rushing stats are skewed because opponents can so easily exploit that passing vulnerability. The Eagles are second in rushing defense, and first in Rushing YPG and YPP--but the Magpies, statistically, at least, match-up well against Saquon Barkley and his minions.
Add all that up and you can safely argue the Philadelphia defense has the scheme and talent to stop Baltimore’s vaunted Derek Henry led running game; the Ravens, however just don’t have the back seven to thwart the Eagle’s passing game and that’s why we’re fading the Crows in this Week 13 match-up.
The Bald Birds have the better, deeper, overall roster. Two teams that can run and defend the run will more than likely have several long time-consuming drives-- Lay the 2.5...
...And bet the Under.
Ravens 24
Eagles 23
O/U OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-5.5) 41.5 O/U
The Browns have an injury report longer than the Cuyahoga river. Every offensive lineman is questionable or worse, and they’re already on the number two QB, Jamius Winston.
With Winston, the only thing Cleveland fans can realistically look forward to is inconsistency. The news that might alter that reality is the return of Nick Chubb, whose mere presence helped the Brownies to the five point snowy win last Thursday night over the hated Steelers.
Ultimately, Denver’s top three defense will do what most defenses who’ve faced Winston have done since his second season in 2015, take the running game away and dare the former FSU Seminole to be the difference--a challenge the disappointing first round back-up has failed to meet.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have to be a Mile High, given first rounder, Bo Nix’s resurgence after starting his career out like the second coming and going of Kenny Picket. Nix has proven he’s a quick study, and is even getting some mentions for ROY after Washington’s Jayden Warren's Hail Mary was answered with a three game losing streak..
Sean Payton has it over any coach on the Browns payroll when it comes to developing quarterbacks. He also has the much better defense, a genuine physiological home-field advantage, and a fan base as rabid as any other franchise.
We’ll go with the home team, giving 5.5; the Total is too low for our purposes. Chubb could open things up for Winston--who might be able to take advantage. We know the Broncos can score on the underachieving Cleveland “D.”
Lay the double nickels and bet big on the Over.
Broncos 27
Browns 21
THE STEELER GAME
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) 46.5 [O]
Really, I don’t want to repeat myself, but why is a defensively inept. 3-7 Cincy squad--Joe Burrow’s excellence, aside--favored to beat an 8-3 Pittsburgh team coming out of a TNF bye?
What’s trendy? (All courtesy of oddsshark.com)
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games.
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
Pittsburgh is 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against Cincinnati.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road.
Pittsburgh is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference.
Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.
Pittsburgh is 12-6 SU in their last 18 games played in week 13.The Bengals are
1-6 in one-possession games this season.
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home.
Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.
Cincinnati is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in December.
Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games played in week 13.
Joe Burrow is 18-7-1 ATS (72%) off a loss in his career
Zac Taylor is 10-21 against the AFC North
This game will tell us a lot about the near term prospects of these franchises. We’ll take the Road Dog Steelers against a division rival coming off a bye--all situations Mike Tomlin has thrived in as the Steelers head man.
We’ll call the Over...
Steelers 24
Bengals 23
As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK 13 ODDS: POINT SPREADS
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-10.5) 48.5. [O]
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-4) 37 LW [O]
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers (-3) 47.5 [O]
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-13) 42.5. US [O]
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) 47.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) 46.5 [O]
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) 43
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-4) 46.5
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (+2.5) 42.5
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets (+1.5) 42
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders (-5.5) 43.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (+6) 46.5
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints (+2.5) 46.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) 50.5. GW
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (-7) 46. [U]
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-5.5) 41.5 O/U
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