NFL TNF WEEK ELEVEN - PICK ATS

When: Thursday, November 13 at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts

Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)

Jets vs. Patriots Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, November 11. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Patriots -850, Jets +575

Spread: Patriots -13

Total: Over 43.5 (-105), Under 43.5 (-115)

NFL WEEK TEN ODDS  POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13)

Everybody and their strange Uncle is picking the Pats to Cover this huge 13-point Spread.

In a couple of division rivalry matchups in which the Gairzo went against his instincts involving the unique elements of those games--i.e. familiarity, and intensity usually lead to closer games--his chosen team didn’t Cover.

If we take a quick look at each team's record, we find more than a few interesting items...

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/matchup/jets-patriots-week-11-2025/game-log

The Airplanes are a bad football team because none of their QBs are able to carry the team on his shoulders, but a deeper look tells us there were only two games--a 20 point loss to the Bills in Week Two and a 15 point deficit to Dallas in Week Five--that were decided by more than 7 points.  

That means the roster is playing hard for HC, Aaron Glen.

In New England, Mike Vrabel has brought some class and integrity to the head coaching position, even though it might take a year or two more to fully neutralize the cheating stench of Belichick.

Of their eight wins, the Pats have only beaten two teams with a winning record.  No disrespect intended; given the parity that defines the NF,L winning eight of ten games and leading your conference is no small feat.

Conclusion: New England might not be as great as the public, or Sharps, think, and the Jets might not be as bad.

Then again, they don’t call ‘em’ Sharps or Sharks for nothing. My favorite big-timer is Steve Makinen over at VSIN.com--BTW, he's having a very off year--who gives us these unique perspectives:

NY Jets are 8-26 SU and 10-22 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012, 12-27 ATS (30.8%) when coming off a SU win since 2017, and 20-36 ATS (35.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016. The team on the other sideline is not reeling and figures to show up ready to roll in front of a national TV primetime audience. New England is 32-6 SU and 29-9 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016.

There is an intriguing TNF system that also comes into play because of the Patriots’ current winning streak: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 17-1 SU and 12-5-1 ATS (70.6%) record in their last 18 tries...

I hate to go against such stellar research; even though the Pats have the better roster and coach, I think the Jets will play a respectable game, and Cover --Under the Number.

Patriots 22

Jets 16