NFL PICKS ATS - WEEK FOUR
NFL WEEK FOUR
Questions and Answers…
This is the week NFL teams separate themselves from each other and we answer the questions their play has compelled pundits and fans to ask… Here’s a sample:
What will the new nickname be for Washington?
We’re on record for the Native Americans with Dan Snyder and the US government going all in on a Native American museum in the new Washington stadium, but it looks like “Red Tails”—commemorating a Black Air Force squadron—or “Bravehearts” which conjures up several images, including men in skirts, have the inside track…Whatever the decision, I have faith Daniel Snyder will find a way to screw the process up.
Is Buffalo for real?
I love what Sean McDermott has done with his Bills. Josh Allen is coming along nicely and it is refreshing to see New England facing real competition in the most non-competitive NFL division in the last 20 years.
Will Cam Newton explode into one of his tantrums?
Seeing as how Cam has already labeled his time in Foxboro as “…a business trip…”…The possibility is that things aren’t all lovey dovey in Patriotville…Maybe it will be the Dark lord who fires the first shot over Newton’s bow…
Will Tom Brady ever die?
Everyone knows my feelings on the Pats, Darth Belichick, and Brady, who have a consistent track record of cheating to gain a competitive advantage—but let’s give the man his due. Although not blessed with a cannon, Tommy Boy can still spin the football into a tight space and throws a pretty long ball, too. Bruce Arians has flown under the radar in his three-team tenure as a head coach, but his players love him and play their guts out for him. None of us should be surprised to see Tommy and the Bucs playing football in February
Does everyone have as much fan as I do watching the Cowboys succumb to mediocrity—year after year?
It’s such a joy to watch Jerry Jones’ face strain at the seams when the Cowboys annually realign themselves as member of NFL Pablum Division, but don’t be surprised f Mike McCarthy gets involved with the most under achieving defense in football, and leads the Cowboys to the post-season—if there is a post season.
How will the bye week forced upon the Steelers affect their play going forward?
I trust Mike Tomlin to handle any adversity his Steelers might face. The NFL made a mistake in not only having a “forfeit option” in case in case a Covid outbreak developed on any team—and/or providing 18th and even19th weeks should the disease infect more than one team at one time. As is, the league will run out of solutions if an outbreak occurs late in the regular or post season.
Before any other games are affected—Cam Newton tested positive, Pat’s game at KC postponed—let’s visit the 2020 Talley sheet for yours truly:
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK THREE
WEEK THREE ATS 6 – 10 2020 Overall ATS 26 – 22
Weekly Totals 3 – 1 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 10 – 6 – 1
Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 9 - 3
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 0 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 – 0
PREMIUM PICKS 5 – 5 – 1 CUMULATIVE 19 – 11 – 1
We’re making bucks on our Specials and Totals and our 19-11 Premium Picks performance calculates to a .633 win percentage…
Let’s see if we can keep it up.
GAME OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-4), 54.5 GW [O]
Well, this was the only legitimate GOTW after Steelers/Titans and Pats/Chief; it pits the two most disappointing teams of 2020, with both coaches’ seats hot enough to fry bacon.
You would expect the loss of DeAndre Hopkins to affect Houston’s offense in a very bad way, but it isn’t Hopkins’ absence The Shitkickers have to worry about, it’s the presence of a dreadful offensive line that has allowed 13 sacks in three games. If you count the 2018 and ’19 campaigns, Watson has been sacked 133 times—those sacks can’t all be blamed on Watson’s penchant for holding onto the ball.
Yeah, maybe all the chatter about Watson being inconsistent, inaccurate and careless with the football isn’t justified. Head Coach and GM, Bill O’Brien, signed LT, Larry Tunsil, to a 50 million dollar guaranteed contract after giving up two first rounders and a second for him in 2019.
Former Cardinal, David Johnson, one of those injury riddled running backs was a top free agent acquisition this year. He’s averaging 3.4 YPC; Houston manages only 308 YPG—good for 28th in the league.
I’m glad Bill O’Brien isn’t my GM.
On paper, the Vikings should be a far superior team—except they have Kirk Cousins at QB and his passer rating is 20 points worse than Watson’s.
The offensive talent on both teams should have easy pickings against two defenses giving up 30+ PPG.
Texans 33 Vikings 28
LOCK OF THE WEEK
ATLANTA FALCONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7), 8:15 P.M [56.5] LW [O]
In the last ten years Aaron Rogers and the Packers are second in winning % to the Cheaters in all games SU, all games ATS; and Rogers and his Packers claim first place ATS as a Favorite and as Home Favorites.
The stat splits are compelling in this matchup:
· The Pack scores 10 more PPG than the Birds of Prey
· Atlanta gives up 100 more YPG than Green Bay
· The Packers give up 10 PPG less than the Atlanta’s league worst 36
There’s really nothing else that matters; this is the Lock of the season, so far
Take the Over; it’ll be a shootout Atlanta looses badly.
Packer 37 Falcons 28
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m [52.5] US [U]
Sometimes, not too often, an NFL slate offers no compelling matchups for Upset or Lock specials.
This week, my first choice was the Steelers as two point dogs to the Titans in The Music City. When that game was cancelled I settled on the Patriots as seven point dogs to the Arrowheads in KC. Giving Belichick seven points is like giving a pit-bull a T-Bone steak—he’s gonna be all over it. And yep, I checked it out; since 2003, His Dark Eminence is second best in the league as a Road Dog.
When that game got cancelled, there wasn’t a legit Upset on the board, so this one comes from my gut.
The Eye Patches showed me something in Week Two against what was supposed to be a superior Saints squad—they manhandled New Orleans in the trenches all night.
Don’t get me wrong, every important statistical arrow points to Buffalo as the better, more talented team—but Jon Gruden has slowly worked his magic.
He damn better polish his wand because Buffalo is no joke. The Bills win; Raiders Cover.
Bills 23 Raiders 21
BONUS OVER/UNDER PLAY
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) AT DETROIT LIONS, 1 P.M 54 O/U
We rarely do this, but our Totals Pick in Thursday’s game was awful…Let's go with two defenses giving up 30+ PPG facing talented but inconsistent offenses to go Over the 54 point Chalk line laid down in Vegas.
Saint 38 Lions 33
The rest of my winners are in bold italics:
Thursday, October 1
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1), 8:20 p.m 41 O/U [U]
Sunday, October 4
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (-1), 1 p.m 43
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m 54 O/U
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m 51.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3), 1 p.m 49
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-5), 1 p.m. 56
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4), 54.5 GW [O]
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m 53
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6), 1 p.m 43
Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m 45.5
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5), 4:05 p.m 48
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7), 4:25 p.m 
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m [52.5] US [U]
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco >49ers (-5.5), 8:20 p.m  [O]
Monday, October 5
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7), 8:15 p.m [56.5] LW [O]