2024 WEEK SIXTEEN = 7 - 8 2024 OVERALL. = 126 - 92 - 5 .578
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 65 - 37 .637
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 2 - 3 CUMULATIVE = 46 - 26 - 3 .639
GAME OF THE WEEK 7 – 8 LOCK OF THE WEEK 10 – 4 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 8– 6 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 10 - 5
STEELERS 11 - 3 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 111 - 63 - 3 .638
NFL games on a Christmas Wednesday? C'mon man! Baby Jesus is rolling over in his cradles. For Hissakes, have we no decency?
I'll be watching though...Ahem...
NFL WEEK 17 ODDS: POINT SPREADS
WEDNESDAY DEC. 25TH
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers 43.5 (+2.5). [O]
The pressure is on Mike Tomlin and his group to win a playoff game--a feat the Steelers haven’t pulled off in seven years. This contest technically doesn’t qualify as a playoff game, but it can go a long way in determining Pittsburgh’s fate, when the post-season rolls around.
The Steelers defense has been a huge disappointment the past month and the reason is typical. Usually, teams that lead the league in turnover differential, (TD)--the Steelers fell to second after last week-- cannot maintain that excellence because turnovers don’t occur solely because of defensive effort or efficiency, but can also be due to offensive mistakes, poor game planning, or just plain dumb luck.
I took a half hour and did some research, matching play-off teams from 2015 to 2023 to the 12 to 14 playoff positions available in those years:
Available Playoff Slots from 2015 - 2019 = 60
Available Playoff Slots from 2020 -2023 = 56
Total Playoff Slots = 116
Number of Playoff Teams ranked from 12 to 14 in TD in those respective years = 67
Percentage of ranked teams that qualified for the post-season = .578
Perfect example from last week’s Baltimore beatdown: The Ravens fumbled three times and recovered all three, (luck?).
Russell Wilson threw a pick-six and a Red Zone pick.
The conclusion is obvious: Turnover differential by itself is a meaningful stat--but where on the field and at when during the game a team turns the ball over are the far more determinative criteria in most NFL games.
THE GAME
I’m laying the points and taking the Chiefs to Cover--we know how they perform when stakes are high. Mike Tomlin has a 800 pound monkey on his back, and that stubborn ape ain’t letting go until his Steelers thrash the beast back into the jungle.
Let's ride with the Over.
Chiefs 24
Steelers 20
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans 46.5 (+5.5) [O]
John Harbaugh still has the most punchable face in football, but he’s got my respect. His teams are always prepared, they adjust as well as anyone, and they’ll pound you for every second of 60 minutes.
Meanwhile in Houston, just as I predicted, NFL Defensive Coordinators have put a couple of pennies on the rails of the C.J. Stroud train. They’ll do it next year to the Commandos Jayden Daniels.
Houston’s defense has to be overrated; they play six games against the dreadful AFC South. The Texans have two quality wins--one score victories against Miami and the Bills--they lost to the the Jets...
Need I say more?
Derek Henry will run the Shit Kickers into the ground. The Crows should be favored by at least 7.
Baltimore wins big, Over the Total.
Ravens 34
Texans 20
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