NFL 2025 WEEK SEVEN - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK SIX =  8 - 8    2025 OVERALL. =  48 - 46 

WEEKLY O/U  =  3 - 5     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  19 - 26  

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  1 - 3   CUMULATIVE  =  14 - 15

GAME OF THE WEEK    2 – 4       LOCK OF THE WEEK    4 – 2

UPSET SPECIAL     4 - 2              O/U OF THE WEEK    3 – 3

STEELERS/OTHER  1 - 4   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  33 - 41  

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GAME OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers -2  48.5 42    GW  [O]

Indy has been good to us all year; we’re 4-2 calling their games--and the Colts offense impresses more seemingly every week.  Excepting their #10 ranking in Red Zone TD scoring percentage, the Baby Horses are top four in every other crucial offensive metric, including TO Margin per game.

Daniel “Indiana” Jones was a lot higher on my list when he was at his low point with the G-Men, and has become exactly what we thought he would be--a strong-armed accurate thrower; the guy who doesn’t make dumb mistakes and is more mobile than people think.  It helps the Bolts show up with a top six rushing game, and though they don’t pass as much as most teams, Indy is top four in Comp % and YPP.  Even better the Bolts are numero uno with the NFL’s lowest sacks allowed percentage.

Perhaps the Gairzo was overzealous in his backing of Jim Harbaugh as a potential miracle worker in the City of Angels,  We believe the Bolts will see confetti one day under Harbaugh’s leadership, but right now they are too inconsistent on both sides of the ball.

We’ll take the Colts -2 to repel the home team Bolts--Over the Total.

Colts 30

Chargers 20

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars  +3 (London) 45.5   LW  [U]

The consensus on this baby has a lot of people picking the “Wires” to win a 6-7 point game.  The logic says the Jaxxers play at least one Europe/London game per year, know the obstacles intercontinental travel and schedule represent, and enjoy a built-in advantage over their opponents.

That very well could be--except when you have  a former #1 Pick overall who is as confoundingly inconsistent as Trevor Lawrence, expecting more is more than reasonable.  

In his 4+ seasons in Jacksonville, his 2022 QB rating of 95.2--barely above average--was his only year with a rating above 88.5, (on the lower end of the league average.)

Lawrence’s career rating is 84.7. 

You expect a lot more from the overall pick.

In Matt Stafford’s five years with the Big Horns, his rating is 96.3; he’s earned a Lombardi and the HOF, is more than a possibility.

L.A. is going into its bye week after this game.  Steve Makinen at VSIN.com Offers up these nuggets:

“...consider these two strong systems as good reasoning to expect a strong game from L.A.: 1) Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 29-8-1 SU and 25-12-1 ATS since ’09) and 2)...Play on any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 16-2-1 SU and 14-5 ATS since 2008).”

Sean McVay wins this coaching match-up over his former Rams staffer and OC, and now Jax HC, Liam Coen. McVay has the better QB and the  better roster.

We’ll lay the Chalk, take the Rams, and--due to the coaching staffs' familiarity--we’ll call the Under.

Rams   26

Jaguars  19

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK  

Carolina Panthers  @ New York Jets  -1.5.  43.5    O/U

These are two fairly pedestrian football teams--in all three facets of the game.  

No outcome here will surprise this handicapper.  

With a still blooming franchise QB in former ‘Bama star, Bryce Young showing flashes of brilliance for Carolina, against the still promising future of Justin Fields in New York, a blowout, a one-score game, or a one-point nail-biter are among all possible outcomes.

We think Young has the better odds to make something special happen.

Obviously, we love the Under.

Panthers   22

Jets. 20

UPSET SPECIAL

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers  -3  45  US  [U]

We’ve watched these teams play all year, and just can’t figure out how the Goombahs have The Niners as the Favorite.   They have no running game, and while Mac Jones deserves kudos for his back-up performances in Brock Purdy’s stead, he’s no Joe Montana.

Atlanta QB, Michael Penix Jr. knows he doesn’t have to win games by himself; the Falcons pass defense is top two in every crucial category--and the Goldminers are still nursing a ton of injured players.

We think the Birds of Prey will win convincingly.

Falcons  23  

49ers 21

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)

NFL WEEK SEVEN ODDS  POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 42.5   [U]

Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars  +3 (London) 45.5   LW  [U]

New Orleans Saints  @ Chicago Bears  -5.5. 45.5 

Miami Dolphins  @ Cleveland Browns  -2.5. 40.5 

Las Vegas Raiders  @ Kansas City Chiefs  -10.5  45.5 

Philadelphia Eagles  @ Minnesota Vikings  +2.5  42.5 

Carolina Panthers  @ New York Jets  -1.5. 43.5  O/U

New England Patriots  @ Tennessee Titans  +6.5. 42.5 

New York Giants  @ Denver Broncos. -7 40.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers -1.5  48.5  GW   [U]

Green Bay Packers  @ Arizona Cardinals. +6.5  44.5 

Washington Commanders  @ Dallas Cowboys. +2.5  53.5 

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers  -3  45  US  [U]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions. -5.5  52.5. [U]

Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks -3  42   [O]

The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are off this week.