NFL 2025 WEEK NINE PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- Nov 1
- 5 min read
NFL 2025 WEEK EIGHT = 5 - 8 2025 OVERALL. = 62 - 60
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 1 O/U CUMULATIVE = 28 - 30
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 20 - 19
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 3
UPSET SPECIAL 4 - 4 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 – 3
STEELERS/OTHER 2 - 5 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 48 - 49
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GAME OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills +1.5 51.5 GW [O]
There is no stat or trend in this game, between these two likely foes in this year’s AFCCG, that will hint at a clear advantage for either team.
If you want an historical breakdown of the best intra-conference rivalry since Oakland and Pittsburgh fought it out in the ‘70s, go here:
Both teams are superbly coached, the Chiefs, by a GOAT candidate; the Bills by a coach who is perhaps a Super Bowl win away from an invitation to Canton.
I can make a argument for either team here to win a close or not so close game. Obviously, Sharp bettors see it as a nail-biter.
We do too. We also think Buffalo can slow the game down if they can utilize the legs of James Cook--and the league’s most effective rushing attack--which would make it easier for Josh Allen to throw the ball.
Meanwhile, seems everything is falling into place for the Arrowheads, again, as they vie for their fourth straight trip to the SB. Rashhe Rice is becoming a stud receiver, while Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain a superb duo.
I’ll go with the Home Dog Bills to win their fifth straight regular-season matchup against the Arrowheads. The post-season KC dominance will hang over Buffalo like snow clouds in January--and we look forward to that seemingly inevitable date with destiny.
Way too much offensive talent in this matchup to hope for the Under--We’re playing it safe with the Over...
Bills 33
Chiefs 31
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins +7.5. 50.5. LW [U]
FINAL SCORE
Raven 28
Dolphins 6
UPSET SPECIAL
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams -14 44.5 US [O]
Sometimes I kick myself for picking Specials when such a pick really can’t be found in that week’s slate of games. This is one of those weeks.
The Big Horns are obviously the better team, but I’ve watched the Holymen play all year, and even with a talent deficiency, these guys are playing hard for Kellen Moore.
When I see an NFL Spread above 10-11 points, I research the game more than ususal, because the numbers, the stats, and the applications of both to a specific NFL week are constantly changing. For example, since 1989, Double Digit Favorites’ win rate is 49.3%, well below the 52,4% break-even mark--but when you narrow the focus to the last five years, DD Favorites win 57.5% of the time.
From the above site:
Large favorites are almost always one of the league's top teams, and top teams rarely lose two games in a row. If a big favorite lost their previous game, the trend increases even more to 30-15-1 (66.7%) against the spread. In other words (well, words instead of numbers), double-digit favorites coming off a loss have covered two-thirds of the time the last five seasons - that’s pretty incredible. On the flip side though, if the big favorite won the week before, they are just 36-34-1 against the spread.
We’re sticking with our original idea that New Orleans may not be a good football team, but they're good enough to Cover a 14-point spread.
We’re calling the Over...
Rams 30
Saints 17
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans +2.5 39.5 O/U
Two of the NFL’s best defenses tussle in Texas this Sunday. Given their respective offenses have been on the upswing the last few weeks, we see this Total as 2-3 points too low...
Broncos 22
Texans 21
STEELERS
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers +3. 48.5. [U]
Yeah, I know, this is exactly the kind of game Mike Tomlin’s Steelers thrive on--facing a quality opponent after an embarrassing loss to a quality team that exploited his overpaid and overhyped defense.
Embarrassing?
Yes...First the throw-back uniforms...Jesus, what is Art Rooney “Deuce” thinking?
Why does he stubbornly refuse to bring back the coolest uniforms in team history, and one of the most iconic in NFL lore--the block numbered jerseys from Pittsburgh’s ‘70s dynasty?
Second, if the Packers with Jordan Love put up a 35 Chicken Club on a defense Tomlin deemed “historic”--how many will the 7-1 Colts--the NFL’s best squad-- score? ( Daniel Jones brings the 6th best Passer Rating into Acrisure Stadium along with Jonathan Taylor and the league-leading rushing game.)
As a “from the womb,” Steelers fan, nothing is more irritating than watching opposing rushers slash through a Pittsburgh rush defense like a red hot sword through soft, nearly rancid butter.
Interesting fact: during Tomlin’s tenure, the Steelers have fielded a fairly good second-half scoring defense. When they didn’t make the top ten in that stat, they seldom fell to the bottom third of the league.
Looking deeper, Tomlin’s 3rd quarter defenses have been even better. This speaks to Pittsburgh’s ability to adjust to what opponents are doing in the first half.
In that same span, the Black & Gold rank in the top two in win %, W/L record, victories, and wins after a loss. (Remember, we give no respect to Cheaters.)
So far in 2025, the Steelers are the NFL’s eighth best scoring defense in the third quarter. Fourth quarter--dead last. Second half--31st...
Like I said--f@#king-barrassing!
I have no doubt this version of the Steelers will show the usual pride and have a good first half--only to have Taylor ram the ball down their throat in the second
Home Dog or not, these Steelers are a hard team to bet on. Lay the Chalk and play on Indy to improve to 8-1. We’re Going with the Under.
Colts. 27
Steelers 21
As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)
NFL WEEK NINE ODDS POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins +7.5. 50.5. LW [U]
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 51.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions -9.5 48.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers -13.5 43.5
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans +2.5 39.5 O/U
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots -4.5. 45.5
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants +3. 46.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers +3. 48.5. [U]
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans +9.5 42.5.
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams -14 44.5 US [O]
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders +3 44
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills +1.5 51.5 GW [O]
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders +3 46 [O]
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys -3 52.5. [U]
The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off this week.
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