NFL 2025 WEEK FOUR - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK THREE =  5 - 11   2025 OVERALL. =  26 - 22  .542

WEEKLY O/U  =  1 - 5     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  9 - 11  

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  2 - 2   CUMULATIVE  =  9 - 5

GAME OF THE WEEK    2 – 1       LOCK OF THE WEEK    3 – 0

UPSET SPECIAL     2 - 1              O/U OF THE WEEK    2 – 1

STEELERS  1 - 2   PREMIUM PICKS WEEKLY  =  3 - 7 

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  18 - 16   

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The Boys in Vegas spanked the Gairzo last week, spoiling what had been a great start. 

Let’s see how well your resident idiot responds in Week Four.

My sister flew in from the Carolinas this week, so we’ll keep our analyses short and sweet.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) 47.5 GW  [O]

This is  a match-up nightmare with way too many questions...

Have the Ravens recovered from the Week One disaster vs the Buffalo Bills?  We thought they did after shellacking the Brownies defense in Week Two--but they stumbled against the Jungle Kings --in Baltimore.

The Chiefs have bigger problems:

They’re the NFL’s worst team as an ATS Home Dog...

The stats say their offense is below average in every major category...

SOME TRENDS

• Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.

• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 12 games.

• Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games.

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games against Baltimore.

• Kansas City is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home.

• Kansas City is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore.

• Kansas City is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.

• Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games played in September.

• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games played in week 4.

• Baltimore is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games.

• Baltimore is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.

• Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Kansas City.

• Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games against Kansas City.

• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore's last 12 games on the road.

• Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City.

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.

• Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference West division.

• Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games played in week 4.

  
  

THE CALL

Lamar Jackson has two MVPs.  His Magpies have lost two heart-breakers to legit Super Bowl contenders.

Patrick Mahomes has won three Super Bowls and is playing for a Mount Rushmore coach.

The bet here is the Chiefs lost big in the Super Bowl and are still hungover.  Kelsey is engaged--distracted?--and the Defense is struggling, trying to pick up that slack.

But, the Murder of Crows goes into Arrowhead as a last-place team, trailing two obviously inferior teams--the Steelers and Cincy.  They're more angry and desperate than KC....

Lay the chalk--Ravens feast on KC like they’re roadkill.

Ravens 32

Chiefs 27

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants (+5.5) 44.5. LW [U]

The “experts” are not feeling the Electricians as one of the league’s premier teams..

This handicapper sees one of the NFL’s most underrated teams visiting one of the league’'s most floundering franchises...

I’m feeling the Chargers as a “could go all the way” team...

The Giants play hard for hard luck coach Brian Daboll; they simply are not as talented as most teams.

The Bolts play hard for one of football’s best coaches.  Their quarterback is elite, they’re running game is suspect because Najee Harris shredded his Achilles, not because their OL is a problem...

And their defense is Top Ten in every major category--numero uno in the Red Zone.

Home Dog or not, the Giants will be hard-pressed to stay in this one--Under the Number

Chargers 30

Giants  18

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK  

Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) 45.5. O/U 

Each of these teams are a “Capper’s conondrum.  The Birds of Prey are 1-2 with a victory over the Norsemen in Minneapolis sandwiched between losses to division rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina--an awful defeat featuring two missed field goals and three turnovers, but is that misleading because Atlanta’s Micheal Penix is still a work in progress, or because the Panthers are starting to jell on defense?

The answer is yes...

Was the Falcons victory against the Vikes due to Minny QB J.J. McCarthy’s injury, or because the young Falcon defense may be better than we thought?

The answer is yes...

The uncertainty in Georgia is a stark contrast to a Commander--er Commadoes--squad that can play with anyone in the league.

The Falcons need one more good draft, and an injury-free 2025 from Penix before they’re on Washington’s level--and the ‘Does have the “D’ to hold the Falcons under the ten-point threshold.

That makes the Under our Premium play...

Commanders  27

Falcon 13

UPSET SPECIAL

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-10) 45.5. US [O]

I’m telling you, don’t underestimate this Cleveland defense.  Their Week One 41-17 lost to the Baltimore Ravens won’t be the Browns only bad loss of  the year. And, last Week's 13-10 win at Lambeau won't be their only shocking win.

Their offense is anemic and needs a shot of iron--or just need to be shot, but we think their SU win over Green Bay last week as serious Home Dogs was impressive.

Nobody but me sees the value in backing the Browns as the Spread has shot up from 8.5 to 10 at selected books.

We liked Cleveland at -8.5; love them at -10..  I don’t know if they can beat a second elite team in as many weeks, but we’re pretty sure they’ll Cover--barely Over the Total...

Packers  26

Browns 20

STEELERS GAME

Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers (in Ireland) (+1.5) 41.5. [O]

Both teams flew in on Friday for the first game in the Rooney’s homeland.  Jet lag will an equal issue.

Unfortunately, the performance, the stats, and, seemingly the talent edge are wearing purple this week.  Pittsburgh’s defense flat stinks--which means Mike Tomlin’s self-evaluation as a defensive coach leaves a lot to be desired.

As a fan, I want to gag every time an opposing offense, and they have been many, rushes the ball down Black & Gold street as if all the traffic lights were neon green.  It makes me even sicker when I hear Tomlin’s defense point to “communication issues”--issues Stevie Wonder wouldn’t be having with Helen Keller.

Pittsburgh’s pass defense is fourth worst in completion percentage and yards per pass allowed.  In layman’s terms, that means the Steelers secondary is lousy.  Luckily for the Men of Steel, Minny ranks 26th in QB completion %--and Carson Wentz will start in place of the injured J.J. McCarthy. That means the Vikings will lean on the run game

Lot of pundits are pointing to A-A-Ron Rodgers seven TD passes as a hopeful sign the Steelers offense is about to explode--in terms of production.

2025 began with the Steelers success determined by a lot of IFS...OL...DL...Secondary....QB....Running Game...??????

Approaching the quarter turn, none of those ifs have been answered the way Pittsburgh fans were hoping.

Take the Vikings laying the 1.5 and play the OVER; WR, Justin Jefferson, will have his best day of the year

Vikings  27

Steelers 24

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...

NFL WEEK 4 ODDS: POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) 43.5 [O]

Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers (in Ireland) (+1.5) 41.5. [O]

Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) 45.5. O/U [U]

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills (-16.5) 47.5

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-10) 45.5. US [O]

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-7) 39.5

Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots (-4.5) 44.5 

Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants (+5.5) 44.5. LW [U]

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) 44.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) 48.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-4) 45.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) 47.5 GW  [O]

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) 47.5

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (+6). 48.5

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)  44.5 [U]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-7.5) 45.5. [O]