NFL 2025 WEEK FIFTEEN - PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- 7 days ago
- 6 min read
NFL 2025 WEEK FOURTEEN = 10 - 4
2025 OVERALL. = 109 - 96 - 3 .532
WEEKLY O/U = 4 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 53 - 47 .530
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 4 - 1 CUMULATIVE = 36 - 33 - 1 .522
GAME OF THE WEEK 7 – 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 7
UPSET SPECIAL 7 - 7 O/U OF THE WEEK 9 – 5
STEELERS/+ 6 - 7 - 1 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 89 - 80 .527
ME VS. THEM
About this time, every year, we publish our percentages and compare them to the so called experts across the Web--specifically:
Predicting Against The Spread (ATS)--the real wagering challenge in the industry--only Nate Davis over at USA Today and Dave Richards at CBS are above .500. Unless I’m reading wrong, your not-so-humble handicapper leads the pack with the .532 tally--barely above the break-even point of .525.
No boasting here, folks, almost everyone is struggling trying to bet NFL games ATS--against the Vegas spread--in 2025. NFL parity and Vegas’ precision oddsmaking are definitely becoming more formidable obstacles.
Last nights disaster--for Tampa Bay and the Gairzo--is the perfect example. The Matey’s, driving for the clincher, walk the plank after Mayfied throws a pick--1:49 later the Falcons kick the game-winning field goal.
WHY IS PICKING ATS SO DIFFICULT ?
Several reasons...Steelers fans rightly yap about their team being mediocre, but in the league right now who isn’t?
The NFL is designed to create 32 8-8 clubs.
The difference between the 11-2 Patriots and the 7-6 Steelers is razor thin, or a “fine line”...(a Famous phrase from Pittsburgh’s own, “The Jaw”...)
Same difference between the 11-2 Broncos and 6-7 KC.
In our Special analyses this week, we'll focus on not only on teams' records but the “quality” of their wins and losses.
We define a quality win against or loss to opponents still in the playoff hunt, and/or with a winning record.
Let’s apply that context to this week’s picks ATS...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos +2.5 42 GW [U]
The 11-2 Broncos face 9-3-1 Green Bay in the Mile High City--a very possible Super Bowl matchup.
All but two of Denvers games--Dallas and Cincy--were within the eight point, one score margin...
Six of Denver’s wins qualify as “cheap” or non-quality wins--versus NYG, NYJ, the Commandoes, the Raiders, Cincy, and the Titans...
That’s why Vegas is making Denver the 2.5 point Home Dog. They don’t think the Broncs are as good as we do.
To clarify, when I point to "cheap" wins, I’m not ripping on Denver’s opponents--no team controls their schedule. (And don’t forget that fine line.) But, let’s keep it real; other than their rout of the Joe Burrow-less Bengals, and the 44-24 Dallas shootout, their other nine victories were nail-biters against lower-rung opponents. That's why the Gangsters feel comfortable making Denver a Home Dog.
Their quality, yet close, losses to Indy and the Bolts tells us Denver’s defense is superb and they very often get just enough from their young “O” to come out on top against almost any other squad.
Green Bay’s four one-score wins, the sister-kisser against Dallas, and their trifecta of one-score losses, fill out their resume which includes a very bad loss against youngish Carolina--at home--and three other cheap wins.
THE STATS
The Wild Horses play better defense than Green Bay; top four in every vital category--but the Pack isn’t far behind.
Offensively, these teams are statistically as close as it gets.
We see the defenses dictating the outcome, and have the Broncos as a 3 to 3.5 Favorite...
We’ll gladly take Denver and love the value we get with 2.5, and call the Under.
Broncos 21
Packers 20
UPSET SPECIAL
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots +2 49.5 US [U]
We’re happy to take the Home Dog Pats in this baby, all day long.
Hard to understand Vegas tabbing New England as Home Dogs in the 2025 encore of this AFC East rivalry. The Patriots have a ten-game winning streak, and have trounced teams they, at least on paper, should have--excepting their opening 13-10 loss to Vegas in Week One. (Remember, we view the first four weeks of the season as the most difficult to handicap.)
We have the Pats with a clear five-point edge at home. They already beat the Bills in Buffalo; they’ve been consistently excellent all year long, on both sides of the ball, and field the more balanced squad.
No outcome here will surprise me. As we know, divisional matchups, especially late in the season, are unpredictable.
The great equalizer and probably the answer to my question--negating any statistical or home advantage NE might enjoy, is the brilliance of Josh Allen who, in my eyes is Big Ben with a better set of wheels.
Then again, I forgot to mention the Mike Vrabel factor...the guy is a hell of a coach
Lay the Chalk and take New England to Cover...We’re going with the Under...
Bills 24
Patriots 23
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3 42 O/U
No doubt, the legion of Steelers fans, who would relish seeing head coach, Mike Tomlin’s head rolling down Liberty Avenue, grows exponentially after every post-season that ends with another loss.
Can you blame them?
Getting boat-raced in the 1st quarters of five straight playoff losses, and beaten by quarterbacking legends like Blake Bortles, not to mention giving up 180+ points, is hard to take for any fan. But, the Steelers 8-year run of futility--five consecutive post-season losses--doesn’t tell the complete story most fans tell.
In the years after 2017, when the JagWires scored 45 points--Jax also beat Pittsburgh in the regular season that year--the Steelers have faced Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson in the post season. The much traveled Mayfield has reinvigorated the Matey’s and the other three have already been measured for gold jackets
In all the silliness and repetition orbiting like space junk around “the Tomlin issue” is this irony I’ve yet to see any influencer or pundit bring up.
Mike Tomlin’s unique ability to get the most from mediocre talent, or “getting more from less”--like no other coach--is the very reason his time in Pittsburgh will most likely end without a second championship.
Look at any schedule since 2017 during which the Steelers began their ignominious streak of no playoff wins--or, more accurately, embarrassing playoff losses. Look at the box scores of any of those games. Tomlin’s record in one-score games is amazing.
That’s not hyperbole--Tomlin’s .615 wiining percentage in one-score games is the best in league history.
Get a more complete story here:
The coaches Tomlin surpassed to achieve that excellence--Don Shula, Bud Grant and Marty Schottenheimer--all had similar career trajectories. Their teams were always in the hunt, but only Shula’s 32 year career stands out with only two losing seasons, the NFL’s only perfect season and two Super Bowls--one more than Tomlin.
Maybe HOF coach, Dick Vermeil who led three franchises to excellence--also, winning only one Super Bowl--was onto something when he posited that no matter how great any coach is, after 12-15 years his voice, no matter its force or wisdom, loses it’s effectiveness...
....Kind of like playing Renegade when your teams is losing by three touchdowns.
OH YEAH, THE GAME
With T.J. Watt recovering from a lung issue, and Pittsburgh fielding the 7th worst run defenses in the league, we can expect Miami to torture the Steelers as have Pittsburgh’s thirteen previous opponents: Stay with the running game , and keep A-A-Ron and the Gang off the field, until the Black & Gold defense pukes from exhaustion.
Pity, if the Steelers could simply control the ball on an equal footing with their opponents--the Dophins rush defense is the NFL’s fourth worst, and they give up almost a half yard more YPP.--Pittsburgh has the talent to do damage in the playoffs--but I can’t waste your money or mine by making that prediction.
I’ve yet to see a game all year with the money and the bets split nearly exactly in half--but the late Sharp money gushed in Miami’s favor and Vegas dropped the Hook.
That means the Sharp money is on Miami...
Which is the exact scenario Tomlin teams thrive in. I think the Over is a smart wager here, let’s hope the Steelers win by four or more.
Steelers 27
Dolphins 22
As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 44.5. LW [O]
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears 40.5 -7.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals 52.5 +2.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans -9.5 42.5
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars -12. 52.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 43.5
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots +2 49.5 US [U]
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants -2 47.5
Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles 38.5 -12.5
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos +2.5 42 GW [U]
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams -5.5 54
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints +2.5 40.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks. -11.5 42.5
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers 12.5 44.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys -6 48 [O]
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 42 O/U
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