NFL 2025 WEEK EIGHT - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK SEVEN =  9 - 6    2025 OVERALL. =  57 - 52

WEEKLY O/U  =  4 - 3     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  23 - 29  

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  3 - 2   CUMULATIVE  =  17 - 17

GAME OF THE WEEK    3 – 4       LOCK OF THE WEEK    5 – 2

UPSET SPECIAL     4 - 3              O/U OF THE WEEK    4 – 3

STEELERS/OTHER  1 - 5   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  40 - 46  

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GAME OF THE WEEK/STEELERS

Green Bay  Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2  45.5    GW  [O]

I snatched this early line and the Packers for a couple of reasons:  Green Bay has the better roster, a young stud quarterback in Jordan Love, and their defense is superior.

Pittsburgh drones on under Mike Tomlin, and every week fans have to deal with blown coverages in the secondary, and a run defense with the signature feature of being frustratingly inconsistent.

Of course, the biggest factor in this one will be Aaron Rodgers’ performance against his former team, and it’s very possible Rodgers can will the Steelers to victory.

I just can’t bring myself to bet on it...

The Black & Gold, has been in search of an identity,  for a full decade-and counting, and during that decade of futility have yet to prove they are a legitimate contender.

I love Mike Tomlin; he has taken teams that should have been 5-12 to the playoffs and that, as much as any reason, explains their one and done playoff record since 2017.   

The question is, how long do you keep hanging on to that shriveling lifeline?

Last week Tomlin’s squad lost to Cincy in the Jungle as Road Favorites:

• Against Joe Flacco in his first week after being traded from Cleveland...

  
  

• Against an awful Bengals defense...

  
  

• With a gold-laced opportunity to plant a wooden stake into the heart of the AFC North...

  
  

• With a defense that Tomlin deemed “potentially historical”...

The Steelers ended up losing a shootout to a 40+ year-old quarterback, as their 40+ QB couldn’t lead them to what would have been a game-changing win.

It wouldn’t surprise this handicapper to see Pittsburgh finally earn a dominating victory that will catapult them from the doldrums of mediocrity.  It also wouldn’t surprise me if they lost by 13 and prove they are exactly where they belong.

Lay the Chalk...Play The Over...

Packers  27

Steelers  21

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons   -6  45.5  LW  [U]

For the Dolphins to stay in this game Tua Tagovailoa must have a big day against the NFL’s best passing defense.

Not happening.  

Tua made waves in the already choppy Dolphins waters last week when he accused teammates of skipping meetings, showing up late, or just being unprofessional.  Players bad-mouthing teammates is a classic sign of a lost locker room, for which the head coach is solely responsible.

It’s not like the Birds of Prey don’t have their own coach, Raheem Morris, on a watch list.  Atlanta fans are talking “boycott” after last week’s 20-10 loss to an injury-challenged 49ers team.

Even if Kirk Cousins steps in for Falcons starter, Michael Penix, we expect Atlanta to dominate on defense and win by at least ten.

Give Miami the 6 points, we are calling the Under.

Falcons   26

Dolphins  19

UPSET SPECIAL

Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs  -12.5  48.5 US  [U]

This Spread hasn’t moved even after, Commandoes starting QB, Jayden Daniels, was  listed as OUT due to a low-grade hammy strain.  Could be becase Terry McLaren and Deebo Samuels are cleared to play--and will make the afternoon easier for back-up, Marcus Mariota.

To me, the Line should have shrunk a full point, if not 1.5...That means we believe we are getting great value at an inflated Spread of 12.5.

Washington will keep it close with the NFL’s second-best rushing offense; the ‘Does average 5.4 Yards per rushing attempt.

With a 12.5 Point Spread, all the Underdog needs to do is slow the game down and stay in the hunt.  We believe Washington will do just that...

We’re calling the Under...

Falcons  23  

49ers 21

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints  +3.5   47.5. O/U

Residing in the NFC South has its unique challenges.  What was supposed to be one of the league’s worst divisions has become extremely competitive.  Baker Mayfield, at age 30, is the divisions oldest star†ing QB against the division’s three other passers, all with less than three years experience.

Divisional games tend to be more competitive even when the talent gap is deemed to be a bigger factor.  That’s our rationale for picking the Mateys to cover the short 3.5-point spread.   Tampa Bay is the better team because of Mayfield, their 8th best TO margin, and a pass defense skilled enough to force Spencer Rattler into another turnover-laden performance.  

Last week, the youngster threw three picks and lost a fumble

Still, despite only one win in 2025, the Saints have been one of the most surprisingly plucky teams in the league with a new coaching regime--Kellen Moore is the NFL’s youngest HC--and a very young QB room.   They have excellent veteran leader ship along with twelve players from the 2023 and 2024 draft classes.

Give them a couple of years to fill out their roster, and the Holy Men can be a force...

...This week, Tampa Bay will Win and Cover Under the Total.

Buccaneers  27   

Saints  16

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)

NFL WEEK EIGHT ODDS POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers  -2.5  43.5

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons   -6  45.5  LW  [U]

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens   -6.5   49.5. 

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers  +7   47.5

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals  -5.5.  44.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans  -1.5.  43.5  

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots  -7 40.5

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles  -7.5   42.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints  +4   47.5. O/U

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos  -3  48.5

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts  -14   45.5

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers  +3    44.5. GW  [U]

Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs  -12.5  48.5 US  [U]

The Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are off this week.