NFL 2025 WEEK 16 - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK FOURTEEN =  10 - 4

2025 OVERALL. =  109 - 96 - 3    .532

WEEKLY O/U  =  4 - 2     O/U CUMULATIVE  = 53  - 47  .530

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  4 - 1  CUMULATIVE  =  36 - 33 - 1  .522

GAME OF THE WEEK   7 – 7       LOCK OF THE WEEK    7 – 7

UPSET SPECIAL     7 - 7              O/U OF THE WEEK    9 – 5

STEELERS/+ 6 - 7 - 1   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  89 - 80  .527

GAME OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks  -1.5.  44.5  [O]   GW

Rams 38  

Seahawks  37

LOCK OF THE WEEK

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints   -4.5  40.5  LW  [O]

Two bad football teams will hit the Big Easy this week.  But a closer look finds a young Saints team led by the league’s oldest rookie, QB Tyler Shough is making a 4-10 season feel successful because of HC, Kellen Moore.  

Meanwhile, the Jets fired Robert Salah in October 2024; it highlights the Airplanes dysfunction as an organization.  They hire a defensive guru, and saddle him with Zack Wilson who is not a franchise level QB. When Salah was hired everyone and their Mother Teresa knew it was a 3-5 year rebuild...

It’s always amazed me more NFL franchises haven’t learned from Pittsburgh’s success and the value of stability.  Their last three coaches have all won a ring(s) and each appeared in 2 or more Super Bowls.  You hire Salah and can him when a QB doesn’t live up. his hype? 

Then you hire Aaron Glen and start all over again.

The Holy men have won three of their last five--and Moore’s play calling and ability to focus his young charges is what made him and the Eagles last year's world champs.

The Saints are at home with a young QB who seems to be finding himself.

The Jets will start undrafted Brady Cook out of Missouri as Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor are banged up.

I caught this line early Monday and locked it in, expecting a surge in the Spread, which ratcheted up two pionts later in the week when Cook’s. start was announced.

We are getting value with the Holy Men.  This is a classic late season matchup between downtrodden teams going in opposite directions--in other words, an easy call.

Lay the Chalk and play the over.

Saints  27

Jets 19

UPSET SPECIAL

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears  +1.5  46.5   US  [O]

The Packers beat the Bears two weeks ago at Lambeau, but it was anyone’s game as the scrappy Bears came up short on an ill-advised Caleb William’s pass that he surely wants back.  His TE was wide open , but Williams--rolling to his left, took too much off the throw and it ended up a game-sealing pick.

On paper Green Bay is the better team, but Ben Johnson has the Ursines playing tough, smart football, and has to be loving it that Vegas , NFL fans and the punditocracy are disrespecting his team.

The ultra-intense Johnson will have his squad ready; a victory keeps Chicago on the Rams heels for the NFC’s top-seed--and that precious 1st round bye.

This comes down to another “feel” game--and I’ve been right  on several in 2025.

Take Chicago, the 1.5 And play the Over.

Bears  23

Packers  22

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos  -2.5  45.5   O/U

I’m not feeling the “Wires yet.  Trevor Lawrence needs to keep searching for consistency. 2025 has been a breakthrough year in terms of reading defenses and a 10-4 record, but his decision making is anything but elite and his 11 picks are troublesome, as is his 27th ranking with a 5.0 Interception Percentage.  Lawrence is also 33rd in the NFL when it comes to Completion Percentage.

He has to do better, more often.

The improvement in Jacksonville is more easily seen on the defensive side of the ball; thing is the Broncos are top two across the board on defense.  Mistakes Lawrence makes this week will be magnified because of the Denver “D”...

And right now, if you asked the other 31 head coaches who they would rather have at QB--Lawrence or Bo Nix--Nix wins that battle.   He’s better--albeit not always by much-- in too many categories and is playing in just his second year.

Denver once vaunted home field, altitude advantage isn’t as quite pronounced as it once was, but the Wild Horses are still a tough out at Mile High, and Sean Payton’s boy’s are trying to secure the bye and home team status throughout the post-season.  I just don’t see the Jags ruining that scenario.

Since I plugged in this line on Tuesday, the Sharks bet on the Jags getting 3.5--so we’re getting a lot of value here, too.  

With one excellent and one solidly good defense, scoring will be at a premium in this contest.  Lay the Chalk and love the Under.

Denver 23

Jaguars 20

STEELERS GAME

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions  -7  49.5     [U]

Listening to national “experts” handicap a Pittsburgh-when you follow the team intimately is really kind of funny.

First off, these guys are parroting Steelers handicapping tropes that were relevant a month ago.  One guy was talking like Pittsburgh has a great running game.   No, they don’t--and they aren’t going to win this game on the ground.

Point being, unlike in past campaigns the Steelers may be “evolving” at year’s end, instead of folding like cheap lawn furniture.  3-4 weeks ago it was “Rogers can’t throw a long ball or deep over over the middle...”  Uh, yeah he can, but A-A-Ron has the resume to look his receivers in the eye and tell them they won’t get a target until they remove their heads from their asses and run the exact route you’re supposed to!

When you have an all-time talent--say all you want about Rodgers, he is exactly that--getting to know the intricacies of a quality OC like Arthur Smith and a HC like Mike Tomlin, evolution is very likely to occur.

In Weeks 12-15 we saw Rodgers hitting those 35 -yard bombs with uncanny accuracy, slants zinging to DK in stride, and perfectly placed back shoulder throws.

The still evolving Steelers defense is tasked with stopping the best offense they’ve faced all year--with an elite running game featuring Amyr Gibbs who runs away from everyone and David Montgomery who enjoys running over defenders--not to mention a quarterback with a 110.4 QB Rating, second best in the NFL.

How Mike Tomlin’s group handles all that will tell Steeler Nation if the hopes of a play-off win are realistic.  If these Steelers can beat this Lions team, nothing is beyond Pittsburgh’s reach.

Detroit has much to play for.  They can still win their division if Green Bay or Da Bears falters down the stretch.

This amounts to a playoff game.  Which team wants it more?

I had this Spread at 5.5 And was surprised to see the full 7--we see value in a lot of our picks this week.  We’ll take the Road Dog Steelers to Cover--and win it on a late field goal.  The Under is our Totals play...

Steelers. 26

Lions 23

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...

(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)

NFL WEEK 15 ODDS POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks  -1.5.  44.5  [O] GW

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders  +6  45.5 [U]

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears  +1.5  46.5   US  [O]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers  +3  45.5 

Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns  +10.5  43.5 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys  -2.5  49.5 

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints   -4.5  40.5  LW

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants  +2.5  44.5 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans  +3  37.5 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins  -1.5  50.5   

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals  +1.5  46 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos  -2.5  45.5   O/U

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions  -7  49.5     [U]

Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans  -14.5  37.5

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens  -2.5  48.5. [O]

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts  +6  46