NFL 2025 TNF - WEEK TWO
- Gary Porpora
- 5 days ago
- 3 min read
When: Thursday, September 11th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
GAME OF THE WEEK
Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) 48.5. [O]
We are usually loath to make the TNF matchup our Game of the Week--but the Week Two slate is fairly pedestrian.
In this match-up we believe the Packers are the clear favorite given our basic theory that teams are still trying to find themselves the first few weeks of a season--and that the TNF visiting squad has it especially rough, especially earlier in the year.
Which is why our favorite ‘Cappper, Steve Makinen of VSIN.com gave us pause with this tantalizing nugget:
“In the first half of the season (Weeks 1-8), home teams have gone 25-22 straight up on Thursday Night Football, but 15-30-2 against the spread (33.3%) in the last 47 games (since 2018). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%).
My belief is that the fatigue factor isn’t really there yet for all teams so it isn’t as big of a deal to go on the road on short rest. Later in the season, when the routines are more established, being at home on short rest becomes more valuable.”
Makinen’s numbers are always reliable, but I disagree with his logic here.
It’s indisputable, if coaches are to be believed, that teams, generally, are nowhere near playing in ideal shape during September football. Player substitutions are less frequent at the beginning of the year because the best players need to be on the field and getting into shape faster than second or third stringers.
We can see this in the number of penalties and yards during 2024’s first four week’s compared to those figures during any other four-week period in 2024.
Notice the drop-off after the first few weeks--there are outlier weeks--but as teams jell, penalties become less frequent and players become more efficient. I interpret this to mean the first stringers--during week 1-4--are stressed more than usual:
They fatigue faster...
They may “press” harder to perform at their usual high level...
Defenses have been repping the most basic defenses with non-starters during the pre-season...
TNF home teams have it significantly easier than visiting teams--at any point in a given season. Don’t forget, Vegas, like the NFL it covers, must adjust their power rankings, Spreads, and Totals given new personnel and management of every teaml...
In September, wagering on the NFL is even more of a crapshoot than usual. We aren’t saying our perspective is more or less accurate than Mr. Makinen’s or any other “Cappers’--but we think we are on just as solid ground.
When you see our Week One tally sheet, you’ll have to agree.
THE GAME
Let’s get Trendy:
In September, Dan Quinn has a 2 - 8 record as a Head Coach...
Matt Lefleur is 10-3 in September football...
Since he was hired in 2019, Lefleur’s Pack is the best as a Home Team and Home Favorite...
Our take on the Commandoes: they are a quality football team who can compete and beat anyone, but unlike last year, they won’t be sneaking up on anyone.
Finally, this from Justis Mosqueda over at acmepackingcompany.com:
...LaFleur’s teams have beaten Quinn’s teams badly in the passing game. Quinn famously plays a lot of predictable single-high coverages, Cover 1 and Cover 3, which LaFleur has had great game plans for.
Since becoming a play-caller, LaFleur’s beaten Quinn in all three head-to-head matchups. In all three of those games, the Packers have never scored fewer than 30 points. In all three of those games, Green Bay quarterbacks have thrown for at least three touchdowns and no interceptions.
In total, the LaFleur-era Packers quarterbacks against Quinn defenses have completed 57 of 74 passes (77% completion percentage) for 823 yards (11.1 yards per pass), 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. That’s good for a passer rating of 152.2. For reference, the max number for passer rating is 158.3.
Our Unit is only 25 bucks, but we’re confidently betting two on the Pack to show us why they are a legit Super Bowl contender--we’re playing the Over...
Packers 27
Commanders 21
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