NFL 2025 TNF WEEK SEVEN - PICKS ATS
- Oct 16
- 3 min read
Updated: Oct 19
When: Thursday, October 16 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
NFL WEEK SEVEN ODDS POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 42.5 [U]
Moneyline: Steelers -278, Bengals +225
Spread: Steelers -4.5 (-110), Bengals +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 44.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
Disclaimer: I am reluctant to pick the Steelers in my LoW Pick. I try to avoid picking a TNF Home Dog to lose--especially when Thursday Night road games have been a nightmare for the Steelers for 45 years! The gory details can be found here:
From that link: “The Steelers have played a total of eight divisional Thursday games on the road in franchise history, and they've gone 0-8 in those games, which includes going 0-6 under Mike Tomlin.”
YOWZARINO!!
Here are some trends:
* PITTSBURGH is 32-18 SU but 15-33 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH is 25-32 ATS (43.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 11-13 SU and 7-17 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021
* CINCINNATI is 26-18 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog since 2020
* CINCINNATI is 13-25 SU but 26-13 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 13-11 SU and 17-7 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY ATS): CINCINNATI (+5.5 vs PIT)
* PITTSBURGH is 104-72 Under the total (59.1%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 36-12 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 31-9 Under the total as a road favorite since 2014
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Flacco is 18-8 Under the total in starts versus divisional foes since 2016
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 22-9 Over the total as a single-digit road favorite since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 4 PLAYS UNDER in PIT-CIN (o/u at 44.5)
Matt Johnson at Sportsnaut.com writes:
"Aaron Rodgers is a top-five quarterback this season, in terms of passer rating, when sitting in a clean pocket. The Cincinnati Bengals will likely be without Trey Hendrickson in Week 7, and this team already has one of the lowest pressure rates (16 percent) in the NFL. If that’s not enough of a matchup-decider, Joe Flacco is the second-worst quarterback versus pressure, and this Steelers’ defense has 17 sacks in its last three games. While craziness happens on Thursday Night Football, this feels like a game the Steelers should control."
The stats show a very mediocre Steelers offense against an even poorer Cincy defense; DE, Trey Hendrickson won’t play. In the most important defensive categories, the Striped Cats best ranking is 27th, in Points Per Play.
On offense, the Bengals are just as awful--their longest rush of the year is 12 yards, and they average a league worst 56.7 RYPG.
Meaning, Joe Flacco will have to win this one for the Bengals. I love the guy, but he can no longer put a team--least of all, one as bad as this Bengals squad--on his shoulders.
Also, Pittsburgh’s rush defense the previous three weeks has allowed an 84 yard s on average; last week, they sacked Cleveland QB, Dillon Gabriel, six times and pressured him all day, and the Steelers dropped at least four INTs.
Add to that, the Steelers, young OL is starting to live up to the promise of the last three drafts, as Aaron Rodger’s and Arthur Smith found a way to score 23 points on a very stout Browns defense.
Always take this die-hard Pittsburgh fan’s Steelers analysis with a grain of salt--okay mountains of grains--but the road TNF losing streak, a game Tomlin’s guys never win, isn’t the whole story. Since he was hired, the Steelers rank first as ATS Underdogs, and in division games.
Lock and load: Pittsburgh wins big, I’m playing the Under,
Steelers 29
Bengals 10
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