NFL 2025 TNF WEEK FIFTEEN - PICK ATS

When: Thursday, December 11 at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida

Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)

Moneyline: Buccaneers -230, Falcons +190

Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 (-105), Falcons +4.5 (-115)

Total: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers  -4.5 44.5. LW [O]

Not much to process in this matchup.  Safe bet these two squads can make an off-season tee time at the golf course.  

At least the Buccaneers can cling to the hope Vegas has given them a 71.77% chance to win the NFC South with a less than glittery 7-6 record.  

The Birds of Prey can expect to keep their tee times unless something very unprecedented occurs, like them winning out, Tampa and Carolina folding like cheap lawn furniture, and Santa Claus turning out to be a thing after all.  You know, like Jesus, the significance of the North Star, and the existence of wise men.

Now that I’ve spoiled Christmas for your children, denied the existence of the savior, the utility of stargazing, and rendered the human condition pretty much useless, let’s see what the matchup stats say.

...Oh, and Happy Holidays

Seriously, these are two pretty bad football teams. The injury reports are as depressing as Dostoevsky’s Crime and Punishment, although Tampa’s reprieve might be Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan’s return for this contest.   

Atlanta’s young starting QB, Michael Penix, is out for the year, which opens the door for Kirk Cousins, an insidious form of punishment for Falcons fans.

Mateys fans can also flog themselves with these little nuggets from Zachary Cohen at vsin.com:

With Bowles as the head coach of Tampa Bay, the Bucs are 1-8 against the spread when hosting division opponents. They’re also just 1-10 ATS when playing at home after playing a home game the previous week. 

On top of that, the Falcons are an impressive 5-0 ATS when playing away from home after a game in which they allowed 30 or more points under Raheem Morris.

Add to that rap sheet last week’s disastrous loss to the Saints and all of a sudden putting a couple of units on the Road Dog Falcons seems like stealing candy from a toddler...

Not so fast.  Your humble handicapper has favored the Mateys all year--Baker Mayfield is one of our favorites, and the Bucs are playing for first place.

We’ll lay the Chalk and go with Tampa Bay--and the Over.

Buccaneers 27

Falcons 21