NFL 2025 DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- Jan 17
- 5 min read
NFL 2025 WEEK EIGHTEEN = 10 - 6
2025 OVERALL ATS = 145 - 124 - 3 .539
2025 OVERALL S/U = 173 - 98 - 1 - 3 .636
*** I also participate in a Weekly S/U Pick-’em league*** For the record, my .636 S/U percentage is also excellent. There were two weeks, your resident idiot didn’t get his picks in on time. For those two weeks, I gave myself an 8-8--which is below my 10-6 S/U average***
WEEKLY O/U = 1 - 4 O/U CUMULATIVE = 65 - 63 .508
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 1 - 4 CUMULATIVE = 44 - 40 - 1 .524
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 109 - 103 .514
GAME OF THE WEEK 9 – 8 LOCK OF THE WEEK 8 – 9
UPSET SPECIAL 8 - 9 O/U OF THE WEEK 11 – 6
STEELERS. 8 - 8 - 1
The above numbers reflect my regular season Tallies. They’ve been checked and corrected as needed and are accurate.
Let’s see how we did against the punjabs at https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/picks/experts/against-the-spread/18/
***I have no idea why they total only 271 games; should be 272***
Pete Prisco Senior Writer = 139-129-3
Jared Dubin Writer = 121-147-3
Ryan Wilson NFL Draft analyst = 123-145-3
John Breech Writer = 129-139-3
Tyler Sullivan Writer = 117-151-3
Dave Richard Senior Fantasy Writer = 139-129-3
JameyEisenberg Senior Fantasy Writer = 123-145-3
How about ...
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-divisional-playoff-picks-against spread/ee720f3c1df720eef66ac9f2
Vinney Iyer = 135 - 139
Analyst Record (ATS)
Ali = 129-146 (46.9%)
Brooke = 131-144 (47.a6%)
Dan = 134-141 (48.7%)
Gennaro = 131-144 (47.6%)
Tom = 133-142 (48.4%)
2025 WILCARD WEEKEND
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (+10) 46.5 [U]
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+1). 45.5 [U]
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (P) 51.5 [O]
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) 44.5 [O]
Los Angeles Chargers @ at New England Patriots -3.5 45.5 (-3.5) [U]
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3). 41.5 [U]
As you can see, I got spanked beet red and seriously impacted my percentages in a negative way--but that’s the nature of the game when you go against Vegas.
Remember, these guys have databases and algorithms the betting public wouldn’t believe.
When you add AI, maintaining the 52.5 “break even” percentage becomes exponentially more difficult, especially for schlubs like me.
Here are my updated numbers thru Wild Card Weekend. I luckily didn’t designate any Specials, but did take a 2-4 bath on my Totals calls.
Last week was the worst playoff week I’ve ever called.
2025 OVERALL. = 146 - 129 - 3 .530
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 5 O/U CUMULATIVE = 64 - 59 .520
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 1 - 4 CUMULATIVE = 44 - 40 - 1 .524
GAME OF THE WEEK 9 – 8 LOCK OF THE WEEK 8 – 9
UPSET SPECIAL 8 - 9 O/U OF THE WEEK 11 – 6
STEELERS. 8 - 8 - 1 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 108 - 99 .522
Let’s see if we can climb our way back to respectability in the Divisional Round...
When: Saturday, January 17 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Channel: CBS
Moneyline: Broncos -112, Bills -108
Spread: Broncos -1.5 (+100), Bills +1.5 (-120)
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos -1.5. 46.5 [U]
I’m a big Josh Allen fan and Sean McDermott is one of the NFL’s best coaches, but they have yet to advance to a Super Bowl and all trends and intangibles aside, my Pittsburgh bias shows this week, as the “defense wins championships” mantra pervades my thinking.
It’s not like the Broncos own just a slight edge on defense, they are as elite as a defense can be in the 2026 NFL.
Conversely, the Bills are glaringly deficient as a run defense.
From teamrankings.com
DENVER VS BUFFALO RUSHING
DEN Value(rank) Value (rank) BUF
Rush Play % 41.76% (#22) 47.11% (#28) Opp Rush Play %
Yards/Rush 4.4 (#14) 5.2 (#31) Opp Yards/Rush
Rushes/Game 26.8 (#19) 26.3 (#12) Opp Rushes/Game
Rush Yards/Game 118.7 (#15) 137.2 (#28) Opp Rush Yards/Game
Rush TDs/Game 1.1 (#11) 1.3 (#31) Opp Rush TDs/Game
Buffalo has an elite running game, but, usually a great rush defense--Broncos are top three--will stifle even top five running games, and the Bills aren’t going to win this one on any running back’s shoulders.
They are going to need Josh Allen to be Superman, and I don’t think he can handle the kryptonite emitted by the best pass rush in football--Denver sacks opposing QBs 10.29% of the time--backed up by a legitimate top tier secondary.
Don’t get me wrong, it won’t surprise me a bit to watch Allen shove that kryptonite down Denver’s throat--he’s a unique, brilliant talent..
But, the Wild Horses are rested, Payton is super after a bye, and the Bills have yet to prove they can do anything but flirt with a Super Bowl.
Lay the measly 1.5 and bet the Wild Horses to win by at least five; the defenses are too good, play the Under.
Broncos 26
Bills 19
When: Saturday, January 17 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington
Channel: FOX
Moneyline: Seahawks -375, 49ers +295
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks -7 44.5. [U]
Every NFL playoff season has one or two of those games where one team is overmatched on paper and, it turns out, on the field. Last week we saw half a Pittsburgh football team force four turnovers off a visiting opponent, and still get routed in Mike Tomlin’s last game as the Steelers head coach. If Pittsburgh had played average offensive football they would be playing this week, and kudos to a superb Houston defense.
This game gives me the same kind of vibes. Even though the Goldminers can boast about their 7-2 record against the division rival, Gulls, dating back to 2022; even though the San Fran won a Week Eighteen slugfest in Seattle two weeks ago, even though the visiting Prospectors have a dynamic young QB, and one of the games best offensive minds as a head coach, and one of the game’s premier offensive weapons in Christian McCaffery--I believe this team has too many injures to win this matchup.
Piersall, Warner, Kittle, Ayuk, Williams--on damn near every level on both sides of the ball, the 49ers are missing a star player.
I know, this time of year injuries are the norm--but these are their most important and talented players.
Meanwhile, the home team ‘Hawks are rested, with their unique home field advantage, a young, hungry head coach, and the best defense in the NFC.
We know...in a divisional playoff game, expect a squeaker and a walk-off field goal. We don’t think this baby plays out that way; we think the Seahawks put it to ’em good.
We’ll lay the Chalk and go with the Home team--Under the Total.
Seahawks. 26
49ers 16
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