NFL WEEK THREE
GAME OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (Ravens -1) 47.5 GW [O]
Perennial contenders--or in the Cowboys’ case, pretenders--these
squads have leaned on their defenses even though they have some formidable offensive weapons. Jerrah Jones recently made Dak Prescott the highest paid player in history coming off an All-Pro season, but the 8th year pro is only 2-5 in the playoffs.
Dallas hasn’t even reached a conference championship game in over 29 years and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP but has yet to play in a Super Bowl.
We’re taking the Magpies to go into Big “D” and better the “Boys on a late, long Justin Tucker field goal. Our reasoning has to do with the psychology of both organizations; both have elite level talent.
The Ravens are legit contenders--since drafting Jackson--in a QB rich conference including a dynastic team in KC. Lamar Jackson will win a Super Bowl.
Dak Prescott--not a safe bet.
Dallas is propped up by Fox, the sports media, and the league as being better, sometimes much better than they are. Their psychology is infected with believing they are still America’s Team, relying on press clippings published 30 years ago. Their obnoxious owner, and fans, who remind us, ad nauseum, the Cowboys have the best of everything: training camp, team facilities, biggest stadium, and the prettiest cheerleaders, therefore they must be one of the league's premier football teams...
We love Mike McCarthy, but we still think John Harbaugh--still sporting the most punchable face in America--is the better coach. His team has the superior stats on both sides of the ball, but his murder of Crows are 0-2 and should be focused on avoiding the 0-3 deathtrap.
Dallas’ O-Line is superior and could make the difference in this one, but Baltimore should be more desperate.
Lay the point in what should be a tight game--we like the Over...
Ravens 26
Cowboys 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (Chiefs -3) 46.5 LW [O]
Since Andy Reid became the head KC Chief in 2013:
His Chiefs have the most SU regular season wins, highest winning percentage, and the best W/L record...
The most playoff wins SU and ATS...
The best SU record, most wins, and best winning percentage in Non-Conference games...
The best SU record, most wins, and highest winning percentage as a Favorite and as a Road Favorite...
During the same time frame, the Atlanta Falcon’s have a SU .385 winning percentage as Home Dog; .348 as an Underdog...
The Birds of Prey also hired a new head coach in Raheem Morris, are featured on their in-house reality show called, On the Rise...and Signed Kirk Cousins, who missed half of last year after tearing his left Achilles.
What could possibly go wrong?
I admit Cousins is a much more efficient QB than many of us give him credit for; he ranks fifth all-time in completion percentage with at least 1,500 pass attempts and is eighth in the NFL's all-time regular season career passer rating, (98.1). He’s made four Pro Bowls in his career and his 273/112 TD/INT ratio is excellent.
None of that changes the fact this spread should be, at least, 7.5 to 8.
Lay the field goal and bet big on the Arrowheads--we’re calling the Over.
Chiefs 33
Falcons 19
UPSET SPECIAL
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (Texans -2.5) 46.5. US [U]
We like QB, C.J. Stroud and Texans HC, Demeco Ryans, and will root for them to win this game---but that doesn’t change our thinking that Sam Darnold’s resurrection is as awesome a miracle since Jesus last attended a wedding reception.
Minny’s defense plays a big role here. They stifled a stout Niners offense, holding them to 17 points last week. In Week One the Vikes destroyed the mutineering G-Men--if the reports of Brian Dabolls predicament are true--28-6.
Houston could very well be 0-2 if not for last minute, close wins over Da Bears and Indy.
There is another factor I’ve yet to see addressed in the sea of NFL punditry: There is enough tape on CJ Stroud; defensive coordinators can now game-plan against his specific tendencies more effectively.
Justin Jefferson says he’s playing and that cements our pick--take the Home Dog Norsemen and expect the outright Upset--Under the Number.
Vikings 23
Texans 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders (Raiders -6) 38 O/U
I picked this as my Totals game for Week Three after hearing the Red Rifle, aka Andy Dalton, would replace ineffective second year QB, Bryce Young for Carolina.
The Spread shrunk to Carolina +4 when the Dalton news was confirmed. That two-point difference is huge in a game with such a low Total.
We’re getting good value on the Number here, and we were thinking about changing our call to the Panthers, but we like the culture HC Antonio Pierce is creating in Vegas and we think Gardner Minshew is at least as good as Dalton, and he has more weapons. The Raiders also have the better defense, by far.
Unfortunately for the Black Cats, a more pressing problem may be their atrocious defense. The Bolts ran roughshod over them last weekend. In Week One, the Saints bedeviled the Panthers to the tune of 200+ yards rushing and 47 points.
Dalton might keep Carolina in it, but Vegas will turn it into a rout in the second half---the Over is our confident call.
Raiders 32
Panthers 13
THE STEELERS
L.A. Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers -1.5) 36 [U]
Another early line that has swelled up a full point probably because the Steelers are 2-0 and this is their home opener--and LA’s starting QB, Justin Herbert, is a game time decision due to a high ankle sprain.
The wildcard, of course, is quirky Bolts HC, Jim Harbaugh who has turned around the fortunes of Stanford, the 49ers, and Michigan Wolverines--winning a ring at his last two stops.
Pittsburgh has the defense to hold NFL leading rusher, J.K. Dobbins, under a hundred yards and the secondary to make it a rough day even for a healthy Herbert.
This game may hinge on rookie right tackle, Joe Alt, and how he does against former DPOY T.J. Watt. Alt was PFF’s wunderkind last week with an 87.2 rating--the best among all tackles in Week Two.
Justin Fields has improved during the first two weeks and we expect him to him to trend that way as he settles into OC Arthur Smith’s new offense.
Essentially it’s a pick-em game and with the Chargers having stayed on the East Coast after Week Two in Carolina. Their record in the 1:00 pm window since 2018 is a stellar 12-8.
One of these defenses will make the game winning play. We’re going with the Men of Steel to win it with a Chris Boswell field goal--Under a very low Number.
Steelers 19
Chargers 16
As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (Jets -6) 36.5 [U]
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (Browns -6.5) 38.5
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts (Colts -1.5) 44.5
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (Texans -2.5) 46.5. US [U]
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (Saints -2.5) 48.5
L.A. Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers -1.5) 36 [U]
Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Buccaneers -6.5) 39.5
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans (Titans -2.5) 37.5
Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders (Raiders -5.5) 38 O/U
Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks -4.5) 41.5
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (Lions -3) 51.5.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (Ravens -1.5) 47.5 GW [O]
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (49ers -7.5) 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (Chiefs -3.5) 46.5 LW [O]
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (Bills -4.5) 46.5 [U]
Washington Commanders @ Cincy Bengals (Bengals -7.5). 48.5 [U]
Commentaires