NFL 2024 - WEEK THIRTEEN
I’ve been betting for years now that divisional games are simply different than any other game configuration the NFL offers.
Pro Football, beyond talent level and strategy, is a game of emotion, the rivalries, the competitive spirit, and the familiarity with divisional opponents is magnified and intensified--especially in late year games.
I also rely on the following “truths” of NFL competiton, and my readers know that I base my picks on my belief in these “go to” factors that make the NFL the most compelling, competitive team sport on the planet:
Reverse draft order...
Reverse waiver wire access...
Limited free agency...
Compensation for free agents going to other teams...
Ability to”pluck” players from practice squads...
Salary Cap & Floor
To parrot the HOF “Jaw,” Bill Cowher, “There’s a fine line “ between an average team and a great team in the NFL.
If we want to test that theory out, imagine Dallas without the ego and spotty ownership of Jerry Jones--i.e Dak Prescott has proven he is not elite---With the money the Cowboys gave Prescott they could have rebuilt their trenches and/or made a decent defense significantly better.
If T.J. Watt were a Bengal, how much better would their record be?
The Rams would be a much more serious contender if Aaron Donald was still playing.
Would the Arrowheads be just 6-5 without the Mahomes/Kelsey Effect?
Baltimore without Lamar Jackson is a barely decent football team.
How good is the Eagles defense without Jalen Carter?
An early retirement, a legend retained for too long, a first round bust, or a Mr. Irrelevant who plays like a first rounder can alter a franchises prospects for a decade or more.
The Jaw spits out the truth; line between decent and great is razor thin.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING GAMES
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-9.5) 48.5. [U]
The boy’s at VSIN.com Give us the following to chew on:
Chicago is 8-21 SU and 9-20 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
26-44 ATS (37.1%) in road/neutral games since 2016.
At the same time, when the Lions get hot, they typically stay hot:
Detroit is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018.
Remember, we cant just apply a system or theory by rote. Divisional foes or not Detroit is, by far, the better team and the fun of betting/handicapping is knowing that each game is, at the end of analysis, completely independent of trends or stats handicappers use to determine their picks.
Yet, Chicago currently pays som bad coaches, and has paid a few bad coaches in the last five years+--while the Lions are, at the moment, the class of the league. Detroit has an excellent coach in Dan Campbell, and their front office has given him the talent to field the league’s best team. Da bears have a wobbly ownership structure and their front office can’t seem to pinpoint what defines a quality coach.
Here’s where I factor in the late Gil Brandt’s methodology and though I hate to lay 9.5 Points in any division tussle, I think the Lions have the horses to win by at least ten points against a Bears team still searching for consistency
*** These clubs. Are #3 and 4 in turnover Differential (-9), which is the determinative statistic in NFL competition. It’s also a wild card that compels me to pass on this game.***
If I were to bet, I’m laying the 9.5, Taking Detroit--Under the Total.
Lions 32
Bears 16
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-4) 37 LW [O]
I think this is a serious steal, only giving four points to a Giants team that only jettisoned Daniel Jones because he was on pace to trigger payments for production.
I’m surprised at the Mara’s amateurish handling of the Jones situation and ownership is just as culpable as GM, Joel Schoen.
They are tanking and everyone knows it--and the Cowboys at 33-22 all time in this slot usually dominate Turkey day.
Lay the four points and bet big on the Over.
The Cowboys should win in a rout.
Cowboys 35
Giants 12
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers (-3) 47.5 [O]
This is another line that seems really low to me. The Dolphins are doing better on offense since Tua returned from the IR. But the former ‘Bama stand out is 2-7 ATS against teams with winning records--1-8 SU, mirroring head coach, Mike McDonald’s 1-9 SU; 2-8 record as a single digit dog.
We could also point to Miami’s dismal performance in cold-weather. We know, it’s a cop-out narrative--the “cold weather” record of sunbelt teams--and we tend to agree with the Dolphin QB that it comes down to a mindset, but you have to admit this is pretty compelling stuff from sportscasting.com:
It is the narrative that Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the team are trying to put to rest. Over the past 20 years, the Dolphins are 15-43 when the temperature at kickoff is 50 degrees or below, including 2-20 in their last 22 games. When the temperature is below 40, they are 8-19, and have lost 11 in a row.
Add to that, a quick glance at the match-up stats showing the Slaughterhouse crew is clearly the better, more consistent offensive team; their running game is top three, and they gain 6.2 YPP--dwarfing the Dolphin’s on the stat sheet--and the Pack takes better care of the ball. Green Bay is 6th in Turnover Differential, (+8)--to Miami’s 20th, (-1)
We think all of that is too much mindset--or any other kind of set--for the Dolphins to overcome.
Lay the field goal; we think this will be high scoring, Over the Number.
Packers 30
Dolphins 20
UPSET SPECIAL
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-13) 42.5. US [O]
This is too much chalk to give even a lousy team like the Raiders--and I made this pick before finding my favorite handicapper, Steve Makinen, over at vsin.com agrees with me. (Actually, that worries me; he is having a very difficult year.)
Mak points out what informed bettors already know: this current incarnation of the Chiefs doesn’t do well when they are double digit favorites.
Kansas City’s QB Patrick Mahomes is 32-2 SU but 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in his last 34 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. He is also just 15-10 SU but just 5-19-1 ATS, following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points since 2020. HC Andy Reid’s team is also off its two worst defensive performances of the season, yielding 57 points in all.
Chiefs win; Raiders Cover--Over the Total...
Chiefs. 30
Raiders 15
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