NFL 2024 WEEK EIGHT = 4 - 12 2024 OVERALL. = 67 - 51 - 5 .568
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 34 - 22 .604
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 24 - 14 - 3 .632
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 2 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 3 -1 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 - 3
STEELERS 6 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 58 -36 - 3 .615
Week Eight kicked your humble prognosticator in the teeth. A disastrous 4-12 tally ended our three week 29-13 run. Of course I knew I couldn’t keep up that pace--we’re still better than the boys at CBSsports.com...
So there!
NFL 2024 - WEEK NINE
GAME OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (+2) 48.5 GW [U]
There is value in taking the Lions here even though since 2019 the Packers are the NFL’s best as an ATS Home Dog, but Detroit is no slouch as the league’s fourth best Road Favorite.
This is a division game, and as good as Malik Willis has performed as Jordan Love’s backup, in the last five seasons,the Jungle Kings rank 3rd--two slots higher than the Meat Men in division games.
Given my putrid prognostications last week, I give Vegas it’s due respect and will keep reminding my stubborn self: these lines are what they are for a reason. This is a division game between two longtime bitter rivals. It can go either way with a last second field goal.
I’m going with Detroit.
Their only loss was a four point thriller against the plucky Bucs...They can boast three blowouts--including a 47-9 demolition of always overrated Dallas--on the road...Green Bay has only suffered only two very close losses.
Willis has promise, but he is a backup; Jared Goff has become an elite QB with a 115.3 QB rating--barely a tick behind reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson...
Detroit has the Dan Campbell effect that even a quality coach like Matt Lafleur can’t match...
Detroit is the best team in the NFC, maybe in the NFL...
(I thought I’d never live long enough to write that sentence. )
A Division game means these two groups know each other well. I think scoring will be low even though both offenses are really solid.
Go with the Under.
***I woke up only to learn Jordan Love is now slated to play--but that won’t change my mind.***
I believe the Lions are a genuine Super Bowl contender.
Lions. 26
Packers 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants (+3.5) 44.5. LW [U]
Like I said last week, if you rush 3-4 D-Linemen in a “Hail Mary” situation--most defenses keep a “spy” in case the QB takes off--the offense keeps six guys in to block three rushers.
That means a gazelle with a howitzer of an arm, like Daniels, could bake crumpets and brew tea until he damn well feels comfortable heaving the football 65--SIXTY-FIVE!--yards where four of his guys can do what Tony Romo described: one guy in front for a tip his way, and another in back.
Did you see the #29 in Chicago white who tipped the ball up INSTEAD OF KNOCKING IT DOWN?
That’s bad coaching--and another nail in Bears Matt Eberflus’ soon to be constructed head coaching coffin.
Football is a game during which the team that imposes its will on its opponent usually wins.
Why would any sane head coach defend a play exactly the way the offense wants it to be defended?
If I’m coaching, I rush four linebackers, and two defensive backs. Even an slippery runner and thrower like Daniels would never be able to set his feet. He’d be scrambling like a paranoid squirrel. Game over...
Granted, an elite athlete like a Daniels, Mahomes, or Lamar might be able to run; perhaps the above strategy should be implemented only with a fossil like A-A-ron Rodgers.
The only remaining sane option would be to rush the usual 3-4 guys; in the end zone you’ve got seven guys against four. Now we’re playing basketball--cover the guy in front and the guy in back; should the ball be tipped--tackle them as if they had a shotgun pointed at your mother’s face. Once a ball is tipped, DPI is moot. Game Over!
THE GAME
Jayden Daniels is your Rookie of the Year. NFL DCs will need a full season to develop schemes to defend him, but just like C.J. Stroud’s took the Texans to the playoff promised land last year, Daniels just might take the Commanders their this season.
The Giants, meanwhile are circling the drain waiting for the mercy of gravity to put them out of Head Coach, Brian Daboll’s, misery.
Still, the same divisional logic holds: longtime, hated rivals who’ve been playing since 1932 means anything has or can happen.
We’re thinking it won’t. The 2.5 spread is just too low to this handicapper. That’s why I’m calling the Lock--Under the Total.
Commanders 29
Giants 15
UPSET SPECIAL
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-9) 45.5. US [U]
It was either this game or Chiefs/Buccaneers for this Special, but my bromance with Baker Mayfield kind of faded when Chris Godwin blew out his ankle and said goodbye to the 2024 season.
In this matchup, Baltimore is the better team and their rush defense is numero uno--other than that, the Magpies give up 1.4 more YPP than Denver = 5.8 To 4.4, and lead the league in that crucial stat.
Denver’s defense is as elite as The Crows offense.
Lamar Jackson is special but he’s beatable.
Bo Nix has been finding himself the last few weeks, even though the Broncos lack offensive firepower, but 9 points is way too much given Cleveland’s take down of the Ravens last week--and the Denver "D."
Sean Payton was excellent as a road dog in Naw Leans, not so much in the Mile High City, but these Broncos are starting to come together.
I’ll take the points, ride the Wild Horses and call the Under...
Ravens 24
Broncos 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) 48.5. O/U
I'm flying with the Gulls in this one even though the myth of Seattle’s vaunted “12th Man” long ago evaporated into the Pacific Northwest ether:
Since 2019...
The Seahawk’s are a pedestrian 14-20-1 as an ATS Home Favorite
The Rams are the 5th best in divisional games, (.618)...
Seattle ranks 27th in divisional contests at .394
I’m taking Seattle because Gino Smith and company can take advantage of the Big Horns surrendering a league low 8.1 YPG through the air, and The ‘Hawks are number one in passing yards per game and completion percentage...
I was glad to see VSIN,com guru Steve Makinen--the best in the buisiness--agree with me for very different reasons:
And since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%).
This is the trifecta of fading public money. I mentioned the short rest before in the Rams-Vikings contest, thus I need to share this trend now: LA Rams’ head coach Sean McVay is 0-8 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022. He is also just 7-13 SU and 4-14 ATS in its last 20 November games. If all that weren’t enough, we have Seattle heading into its bye week with a 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS mark in its last 13 games in that situation. Plus, the Seahawks are backed by a popular pre-bye week home dog system: Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-19-3 ATS since ’15, 62.7%)
As always though, divisional games like this can go either way--it's a pick'em game...
Lay the 1.5 And bet big on the Under.
Seahawks 23
Rams. 20
As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK 9 ODDS: POINT SPREADS &OVER/UNDERS (POINT TOTALS)
Houston Texans @ New York Jets (+1) 42.5 [O]
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) 48.5
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-9) 45.5. US [O]
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-6) 48.5
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5) 45
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) 45
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5) 40.5
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants (+3.5) 44.5. LW [U]
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5) 38.5
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals (-1) 45
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) 47.5
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (+2) 48.5 GW [U]
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) 48.5. O/U
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (-5). 45.5 [O]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9) 44.5 [O]
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