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NFL 2024 - WEEK FOURTEEN - PICKS ATS

Gary Porpora

Updated: Dec 22, 2024

2024 WEEK THIRTEEN =  11 - 5   2024 OVERALL. =  113 - 77 - 5 .589

WEEKLY O/U  =  5 - 3     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  57 - 32  .640

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  5 - 0   CUMULATIVE  =  40 - 22 - 3  .645

GAME OF THE WEEK    6 – 7       LOCK OF THE WEEK   8 – 4 - 2

UPSET SPECIAL     7– 5 - 1              O/U OF THE WEEK   9 - 4

STEELERS  10 - 2   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  97 - 54 - 3  .642


NFL 2024 - WEEK FOURTEEN

GAME OF THE WEEK 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4) 43.5. GW [O]


Trying to remind ourselves to remember our systems that have worked well this year:

Late-season...Divisional matchups...fierce rivals...quality teams with good defenses = usuallly close, well-played, hard-hitting contests.


We penciled in the Bolts to Cover because of the almost immediate culture change Jim Harbaugh brought from Michigan, even though the Arrowheads are playing for their special place in NFL lore.


It is our opinion, every great dynasty achieves something unprecedented relative to the other dynasties in history.


  • Lombardi’s Packers = five rings in seven years...First two Super Bowls


  • Noll’s Steelers = First team to win consecutive titles, twice;  four rings in six years. 1976 Steelers...Then, the only team to advance to the Conference Championship with a chance to 3-peat...


  • Shula’s Dolphins = first team to appear in three consecutive SBS...Only undefeated season in NFL history...


  • The Walsh/Siefert Niners...From 1981-1994 team won five Super Bowls, played in nine NFCCGs....missing the playoffs only twice...Only losing record was during the 1982 strike-shortened season...


  • Jimmy Johnson’s Cowboys were the only team to win three rings in four years, (’92 - ‘95)...Only other team to have a 3-peat shot--to reach the third year CCG--their loss was to SF in 1994...


***Again, a reminder that New England will not be afforded any respect for their “success” in the 2000s.  They are a tainted franchise and Cheaters get no respect...***


KC has appeared in four of the last five Super Bowls, winning three.  They don’t need to three-peat to be a legitimate dynasty; if they do, they can make the strongest GOAT argument.


THE GAME


We will give Andy Reid’s boys the respect they deserve; we think, as they have all year, they will find a way to win--but the Bolts will Cover, Over the Total.


Chiefs  27

Chargers 24



LOCK OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) 45.5 LW  [O]


These two clubs are mirror images.  Painfully average on both sides of the ball; each tells a unique quarterback story, both with first year coaches, and teams that will have to scratch, claw, and cling to make the post-season--well, the Birds of pray will have to cling much harder.


The Falcons have lost their last three.  Their 6-6 record ties the Mateys for the NFC South lead, and their power ranking is in the low 20s.


The Norsemen have only two losses against 10 wins along with the misfortune of being in the ultra-competitive NFC North with the juggernaut Lions and upstart Green Bay.


With their elite rushing defense, the Vikings make opponents one dimensional; when Kirk Cousins faces that reality he presses too much and becomes mistake prone.

Which is why we believe the home team is a very safe bet to Win and Cover--Over the Total.


Vikings   27

Falcons 21  



UPSET SPECIAL

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5) 45.5. US  [O]


There is no Upset Special jumping off the Week 14 page. ( I thought about Chicago but 5.5 Seems to be a solid spread--and I don’t trust Dem Cowboys either...)


Last two weeks, the Black Cats, led by vastly improved rookie, Bryce Young gave KC and the Tampa Bays all they could handle.


The Eagles face what could be labeled as a “trap game”--if such games can exist in a league designed to create 32 8-8 teams.  Another factor in that analysis may be the physical battle the Eagles won in Baltimore last week.  


The Eagles might have to fight a let down, giving more value to the 13.5 Spread--which might be a tad inflated anyway.


Take the points, The Panthers, and the Over...


Eagles. 27

Panthers. 20



O/U OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) 42.5. O/U


No mystery, no in depth analysis needed.  Pittsburgh made a statement after losing in the Snow-Globe game in Cleveland just two weeks ago.


Last week, the Men of Steel came out with guns blazing in a divisional shootout against an elite Cincy offense led by Joe Burrow, matched him score for score and sent a message to the NFL--we can beat you 18-16 or 44-38; choose your poison.


Yes, I know; let’s keep it real-the Bengals defense sucks so hard, Stormy Daniels would be impressed, but the league be damned, Pittsburgh needed to make that statement to themselves...


Keeping it real also demands there is no legitimate comparison between the coaches or the QBs in this one.  If Russell Wilson makes a mistake, it usually won’t be a stupid one--with Jameius Winston at the helm for Cleveland, stupid’s almost a sure thing--and turnovers often come in bunches for the one-time Buccaneer and Saint QB.


Finally, in the AFC North, anything can happen and often does.  A SU 3-6 point win by either club shouldn’t surprise anyone.  But we’re confidently laying the 6.5 here, and the Over feels like an equally confident call.


Steelers 26

Browns 19

 

As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...

NFL WEEK 14 ODDS: POINT SPREADS...TOTALS

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-3.5) 51.5. [O]

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-6.5) 45

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) 45.5 LW  [O]

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (+4.5) 39.5 

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13) 45.5. US  [O]

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) 42.5. O/U

Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) 44.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5) 39.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-3) 45.5

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (+4) 48.5

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)  44.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4) 43.5. GW  [O]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (+6) 48.5. 

Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders have byes...


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