NFL WEEK FOUR
GAME OF THE WEEK
Bills @ Ravens -2.5, 46.5. GW. [O]
The first thing to learn when trying to handicap NFL games is how damn skilled our modern day, corporate bookies are--really good.
Since John Harbaugh was hired, his Ravens are the leagues second best best at home and as a home favorite. (I don’t count Cheaters in any of my analyses; their stats are inflated and tainted.)
Since Sean McDermott was hired, his Bills are 11th as a visiting team and 9th as a visiting dog.
While it’s worthwhile to look at the forest, when you’ve got a purple tree right in front of you--you can’t ignore it:
Lamar Jackson has yet to win a Super Bowl or earn the right to perform in one.
Check this little tid-bit from ESPN:
Lamar Jackson: 7 fourth quarter comebacks, 10 game-winning drives in 66 starts.
Kenny Pickett: 4 fourth quarter comebacks, 5 game-winning drives in 17 starts.
And theseone from Reddit
Lamar Jackson has more 4th quarter turnovers in one-score games than any other QB in the last 3 seasons.
Lamar Jackson has a passer rating of 75.7 with 1,324 yards, 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 6 games in the playoffs in his career.
To be fair Jackson also has the...
Most playoff double-triples: Jackson has three playoff double-triples, which is the most in NFL history. A double-triple is when a player has triple-digit yardage in two different categories.
Most games with 200+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards: Jackson has seven games with these stats, which is more than any other quarterback in NFL history.
Most games with 3+ passing touchdowns and 75+ rushing yards: Jackson has eight games with these stats, which is more than any other player except Cam Newton.
First player to throw for 200 yards and rush for 150 yards in a regular season game: Jackson accomplished this in 2019.
First player to have 10+ pass touchdowns and 200+ rushing yards in the first three games of the season: Jackson accomplished this in 2019.
Jackson won the NFL MVP award in 2019 and 2023
Let’s keep it real, though, I watch a lot of Jackson and he is not gifted at hitting receivers in full stride--the Ravens run a lot dig or out routs--and he’s not an elite deep thrower of the ball.
The Ravens bring an historically great rush defense in the league over the first three weeks--and the leagues worst pass defense.
It’s tough to wager against Lamar, but Josh Allen throws the better ball, and that rules the day in the NFL.
I Like the Bills to Cover but the Magpies could squeak out a win at M&T.
Ravens 26
Bills 24
UPSET SPECIAL
Minnesota Vikings @ Green BayPackers -2.5, 43.5 US [U]
Every once in a while a matchup is between two quality teams that mirror each other. In this contest, both clubs field top 10 offenses with young QBs.
Sam Darnold is Minny’s version of Justin Fields--his nickname could be Lazarus because everyone and his mother thought the former USC standout’s career was dead. I’m betting he did too.
Jordan Love, nursing a bum ankle, and the Packs franchise QB, has seen Titans castoff, Malik Willis win two games running--literally. Love is scheduled to return against the Vikings--but Green Bay has 15 players listed as questionable.
We know NFL players sustain more injuries later in games. We know over a quarter more of non-contact lower extremity injuries occur on turf than grass. I couldn’t find any info on injury rates during the first full month of a season--but my cursory glance at teams’ injury lists supports my belief that due to the non-contact/vanilla nature of the reduced-to-three-games, pre-season, suggests the NFL needs to reexamine the injury data for that timeframe.
Meanwhile the Norsemen have better news, according to Tom Peliserro of the NFL Network:
"Vikings WR Jordan Addison (ankle) is off the injury report and good to go Sunday at Green Bay," Pelissero wrote on X. "QB Sam Darnold (knee), edge Dallas Turner (knee) and LT Christian Darrisaw (illness) also off the final injury report."
...and, the Minnnesota defense is a young and hungry.
We’ll take the points and the Norsement to win outright, Under the Total.
Vikings 23
Packers 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers -1.5) 36 O/U
Last week the Steelers Justin Fields had a field day in new OC, Arthur Smith’s scheme. He hit Calvin Austin in perfect stride and watched his receiver outrace the Bolts defense for a 55 yard touchdown, ran, untouched for a five-yard touchdown, against a window throw that got tipped and picked.
Then he watched the Steelers coaching staff conjure up some fairly good halftime adjustments holding the Electricians to -5 yards in the second half. Minus five yards against the NFL’s best running game and an elite QB whose high ankle sprain hindered his execution.
Fields, the former Bears QB--labeled as a three year bust-- watched the usually perfect Chris Boswell miss his first field goal of the year--albeit a 62 yarder--and the Steelers laid down at the L.A one-yard line in the games final seconds.
20-10 was the final score that should have been 30-10. It was the week Pittsburgh’s coaches and players were sure “the damn was going to burst” for the Pittsburgh offense.
Look for that to happen Sunday afternoon in the Steel City when the Colts visit Acrisure stadium. Anthony Richardson is one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league even with a 55ish QB rating. Richardson looks like Fields did in Chicago for three years, prompting a trade in which the Steelers gave up a conditional 6th round pick, (it becomes a fourth rounder if Fields takes 51% of the snaps in 2024.)
Even with excellent RB Jonathan Edwards, and third year WR Alec Pierce, Richardson is making some boneheaded mistakes; still, the Baby Horses offense is a tick below league average.
The Colts defense surrenders 398 YPG.
Indy has yet to see an elite defense, and unless this potentially historic Steelers “D” underestimates the Colt’s offensive potential, loses focus, or plain turns to jelly, Richardson should have a very bad day.
Sadly, there are way too many Pittsburgh fans who are secretly wishing exactly that on Mike Tomlin so they can resurrect all the hatred three consecutive wins keeps at bay.
I believe in this team. The damn will burst this week in Pittsburgh, as the Men of Steel let K.C., Buffalo, and division rival Magpies know these are not Duck Hodges’ Steelers.
Najee Harris has his best day as a pro; Pittsburgh in a rout, but just barely Over the Number
Steelers 30
Colts 11
As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...
Date Game Matchup Week 4 Picks
Sunday, September 29
Saints @ Falcons -1.5, 42
Bengals @ Panthers +4.5, 47.5
Rams @ Bears. -2.5, 41
Vikings @ Packers -2.5, 43.5
Jaguars @ Texans. -6, 44.5
Steelers @ Colts +1.5, 40 O/U
Broncos @ Jets -7.5, 39.5 US [O]
Eagles @ Buccaneers +2.5, 42.5
Commanders @ Cardinals -3.5, 50.5
Patriots @ 49ers -10, 39.5
Chiefs @ Chargers +8, 37
Browns @ Raiders -1, 37
Bills @ Ravens -2.5, 46.5. GW
Monday, September 30
Titans @ Dolphins -1, 36.5
Seahawks @ Lions -3.5, 47. [O]
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