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NFL 2024 WEEK FIVE

Gary Porpora

Updated: Oct 11, 2024


NFL WEEK FIVE

GAME OF THE WEEK - THE STEELERS

Dallas @ Pittsburgh (-2.5), 43.5 (Sunday Night). GW [O]


No in-depth analysis or wisdom here, dear readers. Against my Steelers, I wouldn’t pick the Cowboys if they built a Booger Pavillion in my right nostril.  (That means don’t bet the Steelers based on this pick;  my hatred for Dallas kind of negates objectivity.)


It doesn’t hurt to make such a shocking declaration when we check out the injury report and see Micah Parson and Demarcus Lawrence won’t be playing.  Those two talents comprise most of Dallas’ pass rush.  


Pittsburgh QB, Justin Fields,  and RB Najee Harris should find room to move the ball on an injury riddled Cowboys defense that isn’t playing well.


Since 1985, Dallas is 7-4 against the Men Of Steel, but since Mike Tomlin was hired as Pittsburgh’s HC, his teams are the leagues best after a loss SU, and fifth best after an ATS loss.  (Remember, I don’t give the Cheater’s stats or history any respect in my analyses--their accomplishments are tainted.).


The Cowboys were supposed to improve defensively during Mike Zimmer’s second stint as DC, but when you’re losing three superstars from a Top Five defense--CB Trevon Diggs is out too--not even a legit coach like Zimmer can do a whole lot.


It could be my inherent bias when it comes to the Steelers, but I believed they were going to break out offensively last week against the Baby Horses.  I just don’t see them regressing under new OC Arthur Smith who is opening up more of his playbook every week.  


I think the Black @ Gold will breakout against a hobbled Dallas defense--Over the Total.


Steelers 30  

Cowboys 21



LOCK OF THE WEEK

Carolina @ Chicago (-3.5), 41.5. LW  [U]


We think Chicago is a great value as the home team against Carolina--the spread should be 6.5.


Don’t get me wrong, --these are two seriously deficient offensive football teams.  


Prior to the 2023 draft, the Bears traded their #1 overall pick to Carolina for two number ones and a barrel full of talent.   One of those number ones turned into this year’s first overall pick, Caleb Williams. 


The 2023 draft saw the Black Cats picked Bryce Young over Will Levis or C.J. Stroud.

Houston is and for many years will be a playoff contender because of Stroud.


This Sunday Bryce Young will watch from the bench as Andy Dalton tries to salvage a Panthers win in Chicago.


The only unit on the field that meets any NFL standard will be the Bears defense--and they know Dalton’s tendencies very well.  He was the Chicago QB in 2021.


This shapes up as a defensive battle between two teams heading in different directions. 


Some cliche loving pundits bill it as the Any Dalton revenge game.  Sorry, the Red Rifle doesn’t have the fire power on the field to pull out a win.


Look for a pick six to help the Bears to win by at least seven points...


The Under is our confident play.


Bears 23

Panthers  13



UPSET SPECIAL

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-3), 46.5 US  [U]


How on God’s polluted green earth, are the Jacksonville Jaguars favored over any team in the NFL?


Sure I “capeesh.”  Horseshoes starting center, Ryan Kelley, (neck), and stud running back, Jonathan Taylor, (ankle), are nursing injures,  along with a few good linebakers, and a couple of CBs.  (More evidence proving my theory on the perils of NFL September football without an adequate pre-season.) 


Indy will also start the stegosaurus Joe Flacco in place of injury bugged, franchise QB, Anthony Richardson.  The fourth overall pick in 2023 is getting dangerously close to the dreaded label of “Injury Prone.”


Flacco entered last week’s game against what many thought to be an elite Steelers defense and threw two touchdowns to preserve a 3-point win.


Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is stuck in the Floridian swamp of mediocrity trying to fulfill what experts once labeled as limitless potential--especially when ‘Wires owner, Shad Kan, named Doug Pederson the Jax head coach--specifically to develop Lawrence as he brought Nick Foles along in Philly..


Last Sunday head Coach Shane Steichen’s O-Line double or triple teamed Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, and picked up every blitz, while the refs just didn’t see Watt getting mauled on most every play.  Steichen also shows superb play calling skills week in and week out.  He’s doing the far superior coaching job--and Jags HC, Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl.


Given Steichen, all the injuries to star talent on both clubs, and the divisional nature of the game, we’ll take the Horseshoes to need almost zero luck to grapple Pederson’s disjointed and disappointing Spotted Cats into submission.


We’re calling the Under.


Colts  23

Jaguars  20



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

New Orleans @ Kansas City (-5.5), 42.5 Monday Night). O/U


We respect the hell out of Andy Reid who has no peer as a head coach or play caller in today’s NFL.   Only Reid, Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry, Don Shula, and Chuck Noll--twice--have coached with chance to three-peat as Super Bowl champions.


As one of only two remaining undefeated teams, fans would think the Arrowheads are on track to pull that elusive rabbit out of history’s hat.


We’re not so sure...


These matchup stats, tell me the Beatified Ones are the far superior offensive team--

New Orleans         vs Kansas City Overall 

Points/Game 31.8 (#1)        18.0 (#7) Opp Points/Game 

Yards/Game 349.0 (#10)      326.8 (#15) Opp Yards/Game 

Points/Play 0.523 (#2)        0.295 (#8) Opp Points/Play 

Yards/Play 5.7 (#11)        5.4 (#17) Opp Yards/Play 

3D Conversion% 53.19% (#2)       34.69% (#14) Opp 3D Conv % 

4D Conversion % 33.33% (#23) 50.00% (#12) Opp 4D Conv % 

RZ Scoring% (TD) 75.00% (#2)       42.86% (#7) Opp RZ Scoring % 

(TD) TDs/Game 3.8 (#1) 1.8 (#6) Opp TDs/Game 


Kansas City vs New Orleans Overall 

Points/Game 23.0 (#14)     17.5 (#6) Opp Points/Game 

Yards/Game 328.3 (#15) 330.3 (#17) Opp Yards/Game 

Points/Play 0.385 (#15) 0.293 (#7) Opp Points/Play 

Yards/Play 5.5 (#16) 5.5 (#20) Opp Yards/Play 

3D Conversion % 42.55% (#12) 35.42% (#15) Opp 3D Conv % 

4D Conversion % 100.00% (#1) 33.33% (#4) Opp 4D Conv %

RZ Scoring % (TD).  45.45% (#24) 22.22% (#1) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)

TDs/Game 2.5 (#13) 1.5 (#5) Opp TDs/Game


Defensively, NawLeans has the better rushing attack and an excellent run defense.  Neither pass defense is swoon worthy.


Most every stat on paper screams the safe, smart bet is on the Saints.  KC simply has been “off”.  Patrick Mahomes has thrown five interceptions and his Chiefs have won four one-score games.


Then why am I picking KC? 


Could be because nobody has a better record as a favorite or home favorite than Andy Reid--and KC is 4-0.  I’m just not feeling Dennis Carr and his new found excellence--and Dennis Allen has to pull off a BIG win before I take him seriously.


It’s a tough game to bet;  The Saints have been excellent all year--and it’s difficult to go with the public and pundits--but I think Andy Reid and his boys will grab the rabbit by the scruff of the neck.  


A win this week puts his team in hot pursuit of Destiny.


We’re betting the Over.


Chiefs  38 

Saints  31


As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...


NFL WEEK FIVE - 2024  10/3- 10/7

New York Jets vs. Minnesota (-2.5), 40.5 (London). [U]

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati, 48.5. 

Carolina @ Chicago (-3.5), 41.5. LW  [U]

Miami @ New England (-1.5), 36.5

Buffalo @ Houston (-1.5), 47.5

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-3), 46.5 US. [O]

Cleveland @ Washington (-3.5), 43.5  

Arizona @ San Francisco (-7.5), 49.5

Las Vegas @ Denver (-2.5), 35.5

Green Bay (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams, 48.5

New York Giants @ Seattle (-6.5), 42.5

Dallas @ Pittsburgh (-2.5), 43.5 (Sunday Night). GW [O]

New Orleans @ Kansas City (-5.5), 42.5 Monday Night). O/U

Bye Week:  Lions and Eagles; Chargers and Titans.



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