NFL 2023 – FINAL TALLEY
REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL = 134 – 132 - 6 .504
PLAYOFFS = 4 - 9 = .250
2023 OVERALL = 138 - 141 - 6 = .495
O/U CUMULATIVE 77 - 63 - 1 .550
SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 41 - 39 - 2 .513
GAME OF THE WEEK 10 – 10 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 11 – 7 - 1
UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 15 O/U OF THE WEEK 15 - 5
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 118 - 102 - 3 .536
GAME OF THE WEEK
Ravens @ Chiefs (-3, 46.5) GW [O]
Our theory about the 17 game NFL season--including only three preseason contests is simple:
Don’t over think any match up...
For all intents and purposes, during the first 2-4 games of the regular season player evaluation is still part of the process...
Due to the pablum coaches put on the field before the real season begins, the first month of the season means players are still getting into game shape, serious injuries are more likely, and teams are searching for their identity on both sides of the ball.
The issues stemming from the truncated pre-season, are magnified on teams with new head coaches and or coordinators.
Look at how little most teams play their starters in the pre-season...Baltimore Played few starters compared to the Chiefs...
For this game--a refrain of last year’s AFCCG matchup--the pick is easy. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in football and has the hardware to prove it.
Lamar Jackson, as great as he is, is simply not yet in Mahome’s zip code.
While Ravens faithful may be salivating at Derek Henry’s addition to the Baltimore backfield--he led the NFL with 272 carries and 2.2 After First Contact yards--we must remind them the Magpies OL will start three new blockers, and Henry has taken as good a beating as the league’s defenders have given him.
One forgotten analysis regarding the Ravens vaunted defense--statistically the best in 2023: Pittsburgh had a wretched offense, Cincy was without Burrow and/or Chase for most of the year, and the Browns had to compete with DeShaun Watson’s suspension due to massage-gate. That’s six games Baltimore should have dominated; they were 3-3 in division play.
For KC, if we add in Andy Reid’s superior coaching, and the mystique that goes with winning three of the last five Super Bowls and going for the league’s first three-peat, this pick gets a lot easier.
I’m giving the Crows a field goal and Taking the Arrowheads to win by six-Over the Total.
Chiefs 30
Raven 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Texans (-2) @ Colts. 48.5 LW. [U]
C.J. Stroud has the look of an all-time great for the Houstons and Demeco Ryan proved his coaching chops last year, leading his rookie QB into the post-season.
Anthony Richardson has promise and potential but his supporting cast will probably hold him back this year--and Horseshoes HC, Shane Steichen is still figuring things out.
We’ll go with the Shitkickers in a romp--Under the Number.
Texans 26
Colts 10
UPSET SPECIAL
Cowboys @ Browns (-2.5, 43) US [U]
The Browns are need to prove to the football world they are, well, not the Browns--just as the Cowboys need to prove they are, well, not the team who hasn’t sniffed an NFCCG in 29 years!
Please allow me to recite the above paragraph in my head...
Joyous, isn’t it?
Cleveland’s defense is legit, but Dallas has better and deeper talent. DeShaun Jackson is the wild card in Cleveland’s 2024 campaign. If he resurrects himself from the massage madness that nearly ruined his career, the Browns have the talent to make a statement to their AFC North foes. If not...well, they are the Browns.
I’ll take my chances with Jerrah’s ‘Boys and 2.5 Points--play the Under.
Cowboys 23
Browns 17
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Jaguars @ Dolphins (-3.5, 49) O/U
This is a true Numbers pick for the Gairzo.
Trevor Lawrence has been consistently inconsistent since the 'Wires selected him number one in 2021. Jax has no real running game but they did acquire elite WR talent in the draft and free agency.
The Jax defense is pedestrian and I just don’t see this Prowl of Jaguars--that’s what the collective term is-- scoring over 13 points on Mike McDaniel and his Pod of Dolphins.
We’re going Under with a big Dolphin win...
Dolphins 30
Jaguars 13
THE STEELERS
Steelers @ Falcons (-3, 41) [O]
I’m not into the “revenge” motif a lot of pundits point to when former coaches or players, return to battle their former teams.
Sure, Arthur Smith was not given the bag of groceries he would probably had bought on his own as the Falcs head coach. I thought he earned another year, but team owner, Arthur Blank handles the money and makes the decisions--and he didn't even ask for my opinion.
What an idiot.
Coach Smith, Mike Tomlin, and the Steelers need to score 24+ points and hold Kirk Cousins and friends to 15 or less.
Revenge shouldn’t be on any Steelers’ mind; finding consistency on offense and living up to the hype borne of some good defensive talent should be their only goals.
Steelers 22
Falcons 13
As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...
Thursday Sept. 5, 2024
Ravens @ Chiefs (-3, 46.5) GW [O]
Friday Sept. 6, 2024
Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) [O]
Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024
Jaguars @ Dolphins (-3.5, 49) O/U
Steelers @ Falcons (-3, 41) [O]
Vikings (-1, 41.5) @ Giants
Panthers @ Saints (-4, 40.5)
Patriots @ Bengals (-9, 42.5)
Titans @ Bears (-4.5, 43)
Cardinals @ Bills (-6, 48)
Texans (-2, 48.5) @ Colts LW. [U]
Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)
Broncos @ Seahawks (-5, 42)
Commanders @ Buccaneers (-3, 42)
Cowboys @ Browns (-2.5, 43) US [U]
Rams @ Lions (-3.5, 51) [U]
Monday Sept. 11, 2024
Jets @ 49ers (-4, 44.5) [O]
Comments