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  • Gary Porpora

NFL 2023 - WEEK THREE

Updated: Sep 28, 2023

NFL 2023

WEEK THREE


GAME OF THE WEEK


Chargers (Even, ML -105, O/U 53.5) @ Vikings (-115), Early FOX GW


Two uniquely unbalanced team battle for their first win of the season.


Not often I pick two 0-2 teams for a Week Three GOW--but this puppy will be a rootin’, tootin’ shootout and will be the afternoon game I watch.


The edge on offense goes to Justin Herbert and the Bolts; the Vikes have a slight edge on defense. The Chargers can run the ball a lot better than the Norseman. Both offenses can put on an airshow.


Look for Herbert to keep a lousy Minny defense on its toes and control the clock. LA should score 30 points easy. The only problem for the Bolts is they might field the absolute worse defense on the planet.


We’ll go with the Chargers to pull out an overtime win--way over the Number


Chargers 36

Vikings 30


LOCK OF THE WEEK


Broncos (+6, ML +235, O/U 48) @ Dolphins (-292), Early CBS LW


The Dolphins are my AFC sleeper team to get to the Super Bowl. No NFL team is playing better offensively; Tua Tagloviola is the early leader for League MVP.


Mike McDaniel has his guys playing at the highest level in the NFL.


The Broncos are going to be a much better football team later in the season--but it might be too late. When teams change head coaches or coordinators, a period of adjustment is necessary--even if the HC and QB have a ring.


Some relevant history from Oddssharks.com: Miami is 12-2 in its last 14 at Hard Rock and 8-1 all-time at home against the Broncos. This is just the 21st meeting between these teams, with the Dolphins holding a 12-7-1 edge in the all-time series.


I’ll swim with the Fish in their home opener, and play the Under.


Dolphins 27

Broncos 20


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Titans (+3.5, ML +140, O/U 40) @ Browns (-165), Early CBS O/U


The Browns defense is going up against the best quarterback they’ve faced all year--and, yeah I remember they throttled Cincy in Week One. Joe Burrow was questionable in that game against Cleveland. A right calf injury can be as devastating to a QB as an injury to his throwing arm shoulder. If you can’t plant your foot when passing, you can’t be accurate.


Facing Kenny Pickett last week did nothing but pad the Browns stats.


Sorry, if Ryan Tannehill is the best QB your you’ve faced in a three game stretch, by definition your defense is not elite, even if they do have stars at all three levels.


The Brownies will be able to run the ball even without Nick Chubb; Tennessee will counter with 30+ carries and a couple of TDs from Derek Henry.


There are a lot of injuries for these teams which means they’ll stick to what they do best--that should help keep the score down.


Take the 3.5 Points the visitors and play the Under


UPSET SPECIAL


Patriots (-2.5, ML -150, O/U 37) @ Jets (+126), Early CBS US


This is partially a weather influenced call because New York is expecting a tropical cyclone making things wet and windy all day. The Pats O-line is banged up, the Jets lost the QB who was supposed to be their savior, and, now, neither team has a top ten QB.


The Under is as solid has the Upset, here.


The Pats have thrown more passes than anyone and are 4th in Pass Play percentage--but 27th in yards per pass and yards per play. Darth Belichick knows, or should know by now, he can’t trust Mac Jones enough to put the game on his shoulders. That means the infamous Cheater will stick with the running game even though they only gain 3.5 YPR and account for only 82 rushing YPG. NE’s running game won’t make a quick recovery with a depleted offensive line.


I’m thinking the Jets defense will be the difference here. They are TopTen holding offenses to 4.6 YPP...(9th)...rush yards allowed per play,


Making things worse, the New England defense is unimpressive. 11th in Opponents Red Zone % is the best thing you can say about them


New York’s Zack Wilson has progressed in fits and starts the last few years and is playing only because A-A Ron Ridgers shredded his Achilles. That fact has to affect, motivate?,Wilson who was drafted to make a trade for an elite thrower unnecessary. If nothing else, NE’s lack of offense will give Wilson a lot of opportunities to screw things up.


This delicious nugget from R.J. White over at CBSSports.com--there were eight games since 2020 when the Over/Under was 38 or less and visitor was favored--the Under hit 7-1 in those games.


The intangible factor--the Jets should be sick of hearing about their failures against the Patriots.


Take the Airplanes, the 2.5, And the Under...


Jets 20

Patriots 16


The Steeler Game


Steelers (+1, ML +105, O/U 43) @ Raiders (-125), 7:20 pm NBC


Mike Tomlin is historically one of the best primetime coaches in the game. As a franchise The Steelers are second in NFL history with 91 overall prime time wins, behind only the Dallas Cowboys (95). Pittsburgh is fourth in prime time winning percentage at .587.


Of course, none of that matters.


Tonight’s game could define both team’s season.


No analysis is needed here, Do not bet this game relying on my crack analysis.


Analyze this: I hate the Raiders with every beat of my heart.


I’d rather pick my nose in a Carnegie Hall spotlight than pick the Raiders in this game.


Pickett comes alive. Play the Over


Steelers 27

Raiders 24


Thursday Sep. 21

Giants (+10.5, ML +430, O/U 45) @ 49ers (-600), 8:15 pm Amazon Prime


Sunday, Sept. 24

Saints (+2, ML +105, O/U 43) @ Packers (-125), Early FOX

Broncos (+6.5, ML +235, O/U 48) @ Dolphins (-292), Early CBS LW

Patriots (-2.5, ML -150, O/U 37) @ Jets (+126), Early CBS US

Colts (+8, ML +300, O/U 44) @ Ravens (-385), Early CBS

Bills (-6.5, ML -292, O/U 44.5) @ Commanders (+235), Early CBS

Texans (+8, ML +345, O/U 44) @ Jaguars (-455), Early FOX

Chargers (Even, ML -105, O/U 53.5) @ Vikings (-115), Early FOX GW

Titans (+3.5, ML +140, O/U 40) @ Browns (-165), Early CBS O/U

Falcons (+3, ML +143, O/U 46.5) @ Lions (-170), Early FOX

Panthers (+6, ML +215, O/U 42.5) @ Seahawks (-267), 4:05 pm CBS

Bears (+13, ML +550, O/U 47.5) @ Chiefs (-800), 4:25 pm FOX

Cowboys (-12, ML -700, O/U 43.5) @ Cardinals (+43.5), 4:25 pm FOX

Steelers (+3, ML +105, O/U 43) @ Raiders (-125), 7:20 pm NBC


Monday, Sept. 25

Eagles (-5.5, ML -235, O/U 46) @ Buccaneers (+192), 6:15 pm ABC

Rams (+2, ML +110, O/U 43.5) @ Bengals (-130), 7:15 pm ESPN

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