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  • Gary Porpora

NFL 2023 WEEK TEN - ATS PICKS AND TOTALS

NFL 2023 - WEEK TEN


NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK NINE - 2023 = 7 - 7

WEEKLY OVERALL = 65 – 68 - 3

0/U = 4 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE 35 - 28 .555

SPECIALS 3 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 22 - 14 .611

GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 3

UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 6 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 - 2

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 57 -42 .576


GAME OF THE WEEK


San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) 44.5 GW [O]


The Niners hit the road out of their bye week and head to Jacksonville to face Doug Pedersons JagWires. A lot of Sharps and casual bettors believe Jacksonville should be favored here. I don’t.


Steve Makinen over at VSIN.com has analytics mastered, this guy dives into every nook and crack of trends and stats to put just about any given matchup a whole new dynamic.


Here are his “Systems” fo this cross-conference match up:

  • First, San Francisco has won the last five ATS versus Jacksonville.

  • Second, in another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%).

  • Third, regarding the 49ers losing skid, NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 38-11 SU and 30-17-2 ATS (61.2%) run when favored in the next game as well.

  • There’s also been a lot of success backing road favorites out of their bye weeks.

Guys like Makinen--to me, he’s the best in the business-- give handicappers a new perspective on how to wager.


We also look at traditional trends like where teams rank after a win, or on neutral turf, or in a different time zones.


Still each game unfolds in its own unique cosmos. In other words no matter what Sharps like Makinen say--or how schlubs like me interpret all the info-- we have to look at each matchup in its own context.


That’s why I’m betting huge the Gold Miners remind the Jags and the rest of the NFL they have the superior roster, one of the elite play callers in football, a rookie QB who is mature years beyond his numerical age--and a returning Deebo Samuels and stud tackle, Trent Williams.


The Jags simply do not measure up to San Fan using matchup stats, dual game logs or any other measuring stick; one metric does tell the tale of who will dominate this game--balance.

Balance is too often overlooked as a “system” in the NFL.


  • SF Rush% = 50.41 Jax Rush% = 44.63

  • SF Pass% = 49.59 Jax Pass% = 55.37


This Shanahan Effect was handed down from Mike to his son, Kyle.


If you have a balanced attack in the NFL, you dictate pace, flow, and tempo of the game because the defense is constantly on its heels. You can call a screen pass on first down and surprise most teams who would expecting the play on 3rd down. When a team has that first step advantage and forces the defense to react, at the NFL level, it’s like giving Usain Bolt a two yard head start in the 100 meter dash--good luck with that.


We’re calling the Prospectors to win big--Over the Number.


49ers 33

Jaguars 19


UPSET SPECIAL


Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) 38.5 US [O]


This puppy was our second choice after we got spooked by the stellar Saints road record, and expecting the Josh Dobbs train to derail after last week’s stand-out performance in a SU win over the Falcons.


We expect opponents to start getting a better picture of how to stop Dobbs, we love the Saints as a road favorite and the Norsemen are a paltry 6-11 as a Home Dog since 2014.


We're a lot more comfy with the Titan/Bucs game as our Upset Special


We also think Will Levis is going to be a great quarterback for the Titans. The kid has a cannon arm, he sees the entire field, he can run effectively and he has a Big Benish type attitude--and escapability.


In Tampa, Baker Mayfield has another pathetically average team to play for--Drafted by the Cleveland Clownshow, played 4 years...Then, off to Vegas, for five games in 2022, and finished ‘22 in Pantherland with a lame duck coach. The Mateys owe it to themselves to give this kid the reigns for the rest of this year--and Mayfield has to realize the clock is against him having more chances to prove himself.


We look for a win by Tennessee putting Levis on the map to stay; play the Over.


Titans 28

Buccaneers 20


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEKy


Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ New England Patriots (+2) 43.5 O/U


I can make a case for either of these fairly awful teams, playing this game in Frankfurt Germany. Both have inconsistent second rate quarterbacks and they are statistically unimpressive--on both sides of the ball


That mediocrity coupled with NE’s dreadful 2-7 record ATS, makes Indy and the Under a value pick for this game.


We have to wonder how much these cross-continental games take out of teams. Jet lag is a real thing even if guys sleep for much of the 9+ hour flight to Europe.


BTW, talk of Belichick being on the proverbial hot seat is ridiculous. If “Happy Ending” Robert Kraft didn’t fire the most sanctioned coach in team sports history after one of three cheating scandals, what makes anyone think Kraft will jettison Belichick who put six Lombardi trophies in his building--albeit with documented cheating?


THE PICK


We’re laying the -2 and going with the Horseshoes--against the consensus--and the Under.


Colts 23

Patriots 20


THE STEELERS GAME


Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 38.5 [U]


Balance? We don’t need no stinking balance!


Both these teams are operating at a 40/60 run pass split.


Both are hoping their young QBs achieve a level of consistency that will result in more offensive options and less stress on their already overworked defenses.


Green Bay has less dynamic options at the skill positions; Pittsburgh has elite talent but pedestrian execution.


This could very well be a three-point nail biter, or a blowout by either team.


I’ll give Green Bay the points and cautiously call the Under.


Steelers 22

Packers 16


As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...


Date Spread Moneyline Over Under

NFL WEEK TEN SPREADS & TOTALS

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Chicago Bears (-3) 40.5 LW [U]

Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ New England Patriots (+2) 43.5 O/U

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens (-6) 38.5

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) 46.5

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) 44.5 GW [O]

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) 40.5

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 38.5 [U]

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) 38.5 US [O]

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) 43.5

Detroit Lions (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) 48.5

New York Giants (+15.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-15.5) 39.5

Washington Commanders (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks (-6) 44.5 [U]

New York Jets (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1) 36.5 [O]

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) 45.5 [U]



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