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  • Gary Porpora

NFL 2023 WEEK SIX PICKS ATS

Updated: Oct 16, 2023

NFL 2023 - WEEK FIVE


NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK FIVE - 2023 = 7 -7

WEEKLY OVERALL = 38 – 38 - 2 .500

0/U = 6 - 1 O/U CUMULATIVE 21 - 16 .568

SPECIALS 3 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 12 - 8 .600

GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL 1 – 4 O/U OF THE WEEK 4 - 1

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 33 -22 .600


As you can see, we are sitting comfortab ly above .560 on one, and 60% on our two of our most important numbers:

  • SPECIALS CUMULATIVE, essentially our four Best Bets of each week...21 - 16 .568

  • O/U CUMULATIVE, our 4-8 weekly Totals picks...12 - 8 .600

  • PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 33 -22 .600

If we can sustain that level of success, through Week 17, we will be atop nearly all 'Cappers on the net. Let's check in on how we're doing with competition:

Let's see if we can make some progress...


GAME OF THE WEEK

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Chargers Cowboys -130; Chargers +110 50.5 GW [O]


The curse of Jerry Jones hangs over Dallas like gas hangs in the crisp night air after real cowboys polish off a couple plates of beans.


Or, something like that.


In the last 27 years, there have been many, too many big games Dallas has played small. This years version was last week’s clinical, systematic, 42-10--”we’re a better football team than you are”--shellacking the Prospectors laid on them ‘Boys. It was yet another example of Dallas not playing up to their talent


I was going to posit that Dallas blows a lot of games, when those games would have sent a message to the league, the way the Niners used last week’s game against Big “D” to amplify the message they’ve sent the past six weeks...’Ahem, we’re a better football team than you and everyone else.”


Turns out the crew at bleachereport.com already scooped me on how the Dallas Cowboys fall short--yet again:



If you don ‘t want a long read, heres the final paragraph:


In conclusion...No matter how you break it down—and we just gave you 12 unique angles—Dallas is a below-average football team when it comes to protecting second-half leads. The numbers indicate they've been worse lately than they were in the early part of Romo's career, but only by a slight margin (especially when you consider those three blown leads without Romo in a lost 2010 season).


At least we’ve come to expect the Chargers to generally be mediocre; they’re pretty dependable in maintaining that standard.


They have as much talent as does Dallas; and they too often find a way to come up short


All of which begs the question, who is going to fall short, this week.


Dallas is banged up on the O-Line, and in the secondary. The Zappers get all-world running back, Austin Eckeler back and can only improve on a stunningly putrid defense...


Yes, the Cowboys have significant talent on both sides of their roster, but the Bolts offense can shoot it out with anyone--I don’t think Dak and the ‘Boys can keep up. Play the Over big.


Chargers 36

Cowboys 33


LOCK OF THE WEEK

Eagles (-6.5) @ Jets Eagles -298; Jets +245 41 LW [O]


The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league--the Jets? Not so much. They call it a Lock for a reason. Play the Over...


Eagles 31

Jets 15


UPSET SPECIAL

Saints (-1.5) @ Texans Saints -120; Texans +100 42 US [U]


Given the Texans and rookie QB, CJ Stroud, trending upward and despite a solid Saints defense, we expected this line to favor the Shitkickers by two points.


Houston is the better team, top to bottom, but defensively, the Saints are stifling on run defense and allow only 183 YPG through the air--but they haven’t faced a QB with the skill set of CJ Stroud.


We are not a big fan of the Saints new QB, Derek Carr, or HC, Dennis Allen, but think Demeco Ryan and CJ Stroud are the most promising HC an QB tandem in the NFL, and will make the playoffs starting next year.


We see the Texans winning outright, Under the Number.


Texans 21

Saints 20


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Ravens (-4.5) @ Titans Ravens -198; Titans +164 40.5 O/U


No big mystery here--this lookahead Total was too low when we first saw it Monday. We think Baltimore gifted the Steelers a win last week-dropping two easy touchdown passes and playing man when Kenny Pickett has less success agains zone coverage.


Not only do the match-up stats tell us The Magpies are overall the much better team, they are the better running team, they defend the run more consistently--Top Ten in Opp. RYPG and per play--and have yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season.


Ryan Tannehill’s near dreadful 75.3 QB Rating is worse than rookies Bryce Young, and Jordan Love--and Derek Henry eclipsed the 300 yard rushing total only last week.


These trends don’t help Mike Vrabel’s squad either:

  • The Titans have been a big Over team in pre-bye week games, 10-4 on totals in their last 14, allowing 28.1 PPG

  • Tennessee has gone 3-7 ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week contests away from home

  • TENNESSEE is 31-43 ATS (41.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014

***Remember for every trend we can cite supporting our picks, we can find just as many, or more, opposing them. For example, here are some relevant Ravens trends that lean to the Under.***

  • Baltimore are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games.

  • Baltimore are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

  • Baltimore are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Tennessee.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Baltimore's last 15 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference

  • Baltimore are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference South division.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games played in October.

We are sticking to The Over as our premium Total of the Week. Every week Baltimore welcomes back big time players from injuries, and the Titans are below the line defensively--OBJ has his best day as a Crow.


Raven 23

Titans 21


As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick are below in bold italics...



Date Spread Moneyline Over Under

Thurs, Oct. 12

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5) Broncos +455; Chiefs -625 47 [U]

Sun, Oct. 15

Ravens (-4.5) @ Titans Ravens -198; Titans +164 40.5 O/U

Lions (-3) @ Buccaneers Lions -166; Buccaneers +140 43.5

Panthers @ Dolphins (-13.5) Panthers +650; Dolphins -1000 48.5

Saints (-1) @ Texans Saints -120; Texans +100 42 US [U]

Vikings (-2.5) @ Bears Vikings -142; Bears +120 44.5

Commanders @ Falcons (-2.5) Commanders +124; Falcons -148 42.5

49ers (-4.5) @ Browns 49ers -325; Browns +260 41.5

Colts @ Jaguars (-4) Colts +164; Jaguars -198 45.5

Seahawks @ Bengals (-3) Seahawks +136; Bengals -162 45

Patriots @ Raiders (-3) Patriots +140; Raiders -166 41.5

Eagles (-7) @ Jets Eagles -298; Jets +245 41 LW [O]

Cardinals @ Rams (-7) Cardinals +250; Rams -310 48.5

Giants @ Bills (-14) Giants +650; Bills -1000 44.5 [U]

Mon, Oct. 16

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Chargers Cowboys -130; Chargers +110 50.5 GW [O]









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