NFL 2023 WEEK SEVEN - TNF

NFL 2023 WEEK SEVEN - TNF

Thurs, Oct. 19

Jaguars @ Saints (-1.5) Jaguars -102; Saints -118 40 [U]

Cam Heyward, Trevor Lawrence, and a bunch of key players are questionable for tonights game--strangely, most of them will be playing as of 90 minutes until game time.

The Saints will be missing two offensive tackles: Ryan Ramczyk (concussion) and James Hurst (ankle) have been ruled out. And that makes us lean harder on the Road Dog Jags.

So does this: these teams are trending in polar opposite directions: the ‘Guars have won three in a row , while the Beatified Ones have lost their last two of three.

Another quirk: the Spread on this game has been schizophrenic, ranging from New Orleans + 0.5 to + 3--then back down to 0.5. We grabbed it at the Jags getting a point and a half. If you look at the history between these two teams, they haven’t played a game with more than a four point differential in their last ten matchups.

Oft injured Derek Carr has yet to become the QB any team was hoping he would be. New Orleans is no exception. Jax’s Trevor Lawrence is playing with a spained knee; his status is the reason for the Line fluctuation and the difficulty in trying to make this call.

Some Jaguars Trend, via the gang Oddsharks.com:

• Jacksonville is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.

• Jacksonville is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.

• Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against New Orleans.

• Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against New Orleans.

• Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

• Jacksonville is 2-18 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference South division.

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games played in October.

• Jacksonville is 6-13 SU in their last 19 games played in week 7.

And...the Saints:

• New Orleans is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games.

• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New Orleans' last 10 games.

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans' last 7 games at home.

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans' last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.

• New Orleans is 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference South division.

• New Orleans is 14-6 SU in their last 20 games played in October.

• New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in week 7.

• New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Thursday.

THE PICK

With the better QB and running back, behind a better offensive line, the Jax Cats should figure out a way to win even though the the Saints field a legitimate Top Ten Defense, (but who have they played?)

We’ll call the Under.

Jaguars 24

Saints 13