NFL 2023 - WEEK NINE
Here’s our tally heading into Week nine:
NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK EIGHT - 2023 = 7 - 8 - 1
WEEKLY OVERALL = 58 – 61 - 3
0/U = 4 - 4 O/U CUMULATIVE 31 - 26 .544
SPECIALS 3 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 19 - 13 .594
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 3
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 5 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 - 2
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 50 -39 .562
We are way below the Tebow line on our overall score, but our 58-61-3 record is better than all but two “experts” over at cbsports.com. Check it out:
Just to stay humble--yes, it is possible, Vinnie Iyer, handicapper for thesportingnews,com is killing the internet at 68-51-3...
I'm not worthy...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-108) @ Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-112) 50.5 GW [O]
We won’t bother with stats, trends or history here--except to applaud the return of Darnell Hamlin who last year had the Grim Reaper’s scythe only centimeters from his neck.
During a routine football play, Hamlin took a routine helmet to the sternum. He stood up immediately then collapsed like a rag doll to the ground. He was at the mercy of Commotio Cordis, a condition resulting from a blow to the chest, which traumatizes the heart into an abnormal, possibly deadly rhythm.
CBS’ Dr. David Agus put it into a frightening context to this parent who coached Little League for almost 10 years:
“...approximately 30 cases of commotio cordis occur in the U.S. every year, including among Little League players who get hit in the chest with a ball.”
YOWZA!!! Must there be lethal danger in every human endeavor?
Hamlin was lucky the NFL requires defibrillators on every NFL sideline. However, if the league learned from incident, it should mandate every shoulder pad breast plate be covered with two inch thick memory foam; I guarantee you helmet to chest collisions happen a lot more than we think.
THE PICK
We’re taking the Striped Cats because Joe Cool Burrow is back and that’s bad news for any NFL team. No doubt, Josh Allen and the Bills can match Burrow’s Bengals score for score, but Burrow, recovering from a nagging strained calf, posted a 77.88% completion rate in his last three performances, and last week against the Gold Miners, one of the NFL’s premiere defenses, he completed 87.5% of his throws.
When Burrow is that fine tuned, he’s the best QB in the league; he’ll win this shootout...on the way to his first Super Bowl ring.
The Over is our premium bet in this matchup.
Bengals 33
Bills 31
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins +1.5 (-110) @ Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110) 50 [U] LW
Yeah, we know, it’s hard to win in the NFL. We also know, recalling one of our favorite sputum-laced Coach Cowherisms: “There’s a fine line between any two teams in the NFL.”
When we compare records of these two teams, we were surprised.
The combined records of the teams Miami has beaten, if you count New England twice is 13-33
They’ve yet to beat a team with a winning record
The Dolphins two losses are to elite Buffalo and Philly...
If we apply the same criteria to the Champion Arrowheads:
Sandwiched between the season opening loss to the ascending Lions and last week’s debacle at Mile High--remember, Mahomes had the flu--are road wins against the Jets, the Jags, and the Norsemen--two first place teams, three winning records--a relatively close home win against Denver, and routs of a lousy Chicago team, and the always underachieving Bolts.
This contest will be played in Frankfurt Germany and Miami flew to Europe on Tuesday, while the Chiefs employed the get in-get out strategy and waited until Thursday.
Here’s a rundown of which itinerary better serves a football team:
For us, in essentially a pick-em game, we opt for the better defense--and KC’s is far superior, the more accomplished coach and the recent two-time World Champs.
We’re Playing the hunch it will be a relatively low scoring game; bet the Under.
Chief 26
Dolphins 23
UPSET SPECIAL
Indy Colts -2.5 (-115) @ Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-105) 44 US [U]
When Josh McDaniels got fired this week, most of us shook our heads and said--why did mop-top Mark Davis hire him in the first place?
When you have the benefit of a library of defensive signals from most every NFL team, getting to nine and winning six Super Bowls is infinitely easier than having to acquire quality talent, establish an identity, call plays that can best utilize that talent, and compete on a level playing field.
McDaniels, Romeo Crennell, Matt Patricia, Bill O’Brien and any other poisoned fruit to drop from Bill Belichick’s coaching tree have all flamed out like Independence Day sparklers that fell in the beer cooler.
Not to mix metaphors.
Conversely, when you have a sketchy owner like Robert Irsay fire one of the most respected coaches and play callers in the league, like Frank Reich...
Don’t believe the “it’s just another game” rhetoric coming from Pantherland. Coach Reich has been waiting for this week against his old team all year.
Revenge is a dessert best served moldy...
We’re taking the Home Dog Panthers to shove that confection right down Indy’s throat--
Under the Number...
Panthers 34
Colts 9
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys +3 (-108) @ Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-112) 46 O/U
Dallas owner Jerry Jones likened this game to a postseason contest--proving, yet again, he has no idea how to manage the psychology of a competitive enterprise.
In every given year Dallas is put on a pedestal--by the league and the networks--as the prettiest girl at spring carnival. She’s got the biggest tits, the most expensive dress, the softest skin, and goddess like alluring eyes...
Let’s not mention the Cowboys haven’t come close to even sniffing a conference championship, let alone a Super Bowl, since Bill Clinton was courting Monica Lewinsky.
Yet, in every single year Dallas is the featured team in more prime time and/or national broadcast games than any other team. Jones, to his credit, has marketed the team as a national brand and the league and 31 pliable owners would rather rake in a few dollars more than divine ways to present their teams as national entities.
So it doesn’t surprise anyone when the goddess descends from the throne we have built for her, and see her skin is full of pock marks and pimples; nerf balls pop out of her bra; her dress reeks like burlap, and her eyes appear dull as cheap glass.
This is not a playoff game, you cantankerous twit! It’s the ninth game of a seventeen game season. If the Cowboys win your self-proclaimed “playoff game”--that result and your relentless arrogance only means that yet again, when the real playoffs come in January, another big-headed, glass-eyed, spoiled bitch of a football team will walk into a stadium without focus or the mental wherewithal to overcome a better prepared team.
If they lose this week, we might not see it, but the loss will eat at the Cowboys so much, they might miss the real post season when it finally arrives.
It’s happened before, hasn’t it Jerrah?
THE PICK
This should be a hard fought classic division game--a rivalry Dallas has dominated winning eight of the last eleven head-to-head matchups.
The Over has paid tickets in the last five.
Philly runs the ball with more consistency, but there is little other statistical significance that would give the advantage to either team.
Here’s a little gem from Steve Makinen over at VSIN.com:
...you got a Philly team playing at home and heading into their bye week. Big divisional games in such bring out a nice system: Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 52-20-1 ATS 72.2% since 2013). The Eagles also own a seven-game SU and ATS pre-bye week winning streak as a franchise and are on an 11-1 SU and ATS pre-bye surge when favored!
I’m going with the Bald Birds, not just off the above nugget--because they are 3rd best as a Home Favorite SU and 5th ATS, and they have proven they show up in big games; the Cowboys have to prove they know the difference between a Week Nine matchup and a January playoff game.
Close divisional rival games tend to be lower scoring, but these two have enough firepower to beat the Number--playing the over.
Eagles 26
Cowboys 22
As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...
Date Spread Moneyline Over Under
Thursday, November 2:
Tennessee Titans +2.5 (-105) @ Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-115) 36 [U]
Sunday, November 5:
Miami Dolphins +2 (-110) @ Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110) 50 [U] LW
Minnesota Vikings +5 (-110) @ Atlanta Falcons -5 (-110) 37.5
Chicago Bears +7.5 (-110) @ New Orleans Saints -7.5 (-110) 41
Los Angeles Rams +3 (-102) @ Green Bay Packers -3 (-118) 38.5
Washington Commanders +3.5 (-118) @ N.E. Patriots -3.5 (102) 40.5
Seattle Seahawks +6 (-110) @ Baltimore Ravens -6 (-110) 44
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-105) @ Houston Texans -2.5 (-115) 40
Arizona Cardinals +11.5 (-110) @ Cleve. Browns -11.5 (-110) 38
Indy Colts -2.5 (-115) @ Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-105) 44 US [U]
New York Giants +1.5 (-112) @ Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (-108) 37.5
Dallas Cowboys +3 (-108) @ Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-112) 46 O/U
Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-108) @ Cincinnati Bengals -2 (-112) 50.5 GW [O]
Monday, November 6:
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-112) @ New York Jets +3 (-112) 40 [U]