NFL 2023 TNF WEEK EIGHT
TNF - THURSDAY, Oct. 26
Buccaneers @ Bills (-7.5) Buccaneers +280; Bills -355 43.5 [U]
We snagged this early line and Total Monday morning and immediately put it on our Tally Sheet.
The Total opened at 41.5; a ton of money hit the Over and ballooned the line up two full points and it’s now at 43.5.
We’ve been a fan of Baker Mayfield since he was drafted by the Browns in 2018. When his weapons are healthy, Mayfield has performed well, but Chris Godwin’s neck tweak could limit the Matey’s offensive production--and Tampa is a third tier offense at best--mostly because they are unbalanced.
The Bucs are lousy at running the ball--31st, gaining only 3.1 YPR, and 77.8 YPG, with only one rushing TD. However, the Bills flat stink in run defense, surrendering 5.1 YPR. Someone has to improve, and it probably won’t be the Bills who are missing some vital talent on both sides of the ball:
Damien Harris RB
DaQuan Jones DT
Matt Milano LB
Tre'Davious White CB
Dawson Knox TE
Milano shredded ACL is a huge loss for a defense thinned by injury, and it could cost the home team Bills big--against better teams down the road, but not tonight.
Buffalo is coming off a short week, as is visiting TB. The Bills second ranked RedZone offense, scoring a TD 71.43% of the time, faces Tampa’s best RZ defense in the NFL, allowing a TD only 22.22% of the time.
Something has to give.
Buffalo has the better talent--when healthy-- Sean McDermott is the better coach and Josh Allen the superior quarterback. I’m going with the Bills laying the 7.5. Josh Allen had a lackluster two weeks prior to this game, but few QBs perform better under stress and the Matey’s HC, Todd Bowles, loves to blitz.
After eking out a win against the G-Men in week six, and letting Mac Jones spank them all over Gilllette Stadium last Sunday, the Bills need a dominating performance to again prove they are for real. We think Allen has a big game--barely Under the Number.