NFL WEEK EIGHT 2021
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK SEVEN
Week Seven Tally: 7 – 6 2021 Overall Tally: 52 – 55
Week Seven Totals 4 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 27 – 15
Weekly Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 20 – 8
GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 7 – 0 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 – 2
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 47 – 23 PARLAYS 1 – 3
GAME OF THE WEEK
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3.5, 50.5) GW [O]
A little house cleaning is in order…
When I publish, the content is often cut and pasted from several word files I am working on—i.e. Tally Sheet, prior week’s post, and, of course, the column I intend to publish. There may be others containing material I access for any given weeks column.
Sometimes, too much vodka or too little sleep conspire—albeit rarely—to make yours truly a bit careless on which version of his column gets published; TNF Week 8 2021 is the latest example.
The headline first published had the Pack getting 3.5 points; my analysis had Green Bay getting 6.5. A mistake due to my taking the original line on Tuesday. I compounded the error bracketing the “Over” call for the Total, when the analysis clearly stated I was calling the Under. I made it worse by forgetting to place the 3.5 bet. I simply forgot to account for those mistakes when I initially published.
I corrected the headline to read:
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5, 50.5) GW [U]
Of course none of that mattered after the end game debacle in the Arizona end zone.
Bottom line, I get no credit for the Special, but do get credit for the right call on the Number.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) 45.5 LW [U]
I’ll be the first to admit this game might be a head scratcher, especially when you have Cincy facing the Airplanes +10 and the Jags visiting Seattle plus only 3.5 points.
Thing is, Gino Smith has not entered my circle of trust and a ten point spread is a lot even if Joe Burrow is as good as we think he is—and, oh yeah, he is that good.
We’ll stick this one out because we know Matt Ryan is close to great and his tight end, Kyle Pitts is emerging as the OROY. And…
Matt Rhule has confirmed Sam Darnold will start.
Need I say more?
Sorry, if your head coach pulls you out of a game because you were crapping the crib, and believe me, Darnold’s last outing was a holy mess: 16/25 111 yards and a pick; what does that do to your psyche?
Rhule had a worse day than his quarterback
If a coach pulls his most important player out instead of saying, “No, you made your bed, enjoy the aroma—YOU'RE MY QB NO MATTER WHAT. I won’t give up on you,” how can any athlete, from that moment on not look over his shoulder?
The next time the shit starts flying, that QB will be begging for the hook. Nobody wins in that scenario.
CBs, A.J. Terrell and Avery Williamson return to Atlanta’s decimated secondary; S Eric Harris’ shoulder might keep him sidelined.
Matt Ryan will have a good day even if his defense continues to be awful. (They gave up 400+ yards to Tua and the Fish.)
The Falcon’s defense is lousy; Carolina’s defense is overrated. Combined, both teams have one quality win—the Black Cats victory over the Saints…Last week, the 2021Giants whipped Carolina 25-3…
Some juicy trends from Oddssharks.com:
· Carolina is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Atlanta.
· Carolina is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Atlanta.
· The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road.
· Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
· The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games this season.
· Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC
· Carolina is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC South
The Under is our cautious play…
Falcons 24
Panthers 20
UPSET SPECIAL
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) @ DETROIT LIONS 48 US [U]
The Detroit Lions—among teams that have been in the league since the NFL merger—
· Have won a woeful 41.4% of their games, tied with Cleveland.
(Remember the Browns rejoined the league five years after Art Modell moved them to Baltimore.)
· Detroit has participated in 12 postseasons…Only the Cardinal’s 8 appearances are worse
· Yet, the Red Birds have been to a Super Bowl and won 6 of those games…
· The Lions have won 1 (ONE) playoff game in that span…One out of twelve, folks…50 years!!!
“Well, dumbass, why the hell would any legitimate handicapper bet Detroit for one of his Specials?”
Deep down beneath this hard-boiled/James Bond exterior I show to the world—ask anyone—I’m a soft-hearted guy.
Here are some trends:
· Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 vs sub-.500 teams.
· The OVER is 7-0 in the past 7 meetings.
· Detroit is 0-15 SU in its last 15 as a home underdog.
· The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit.
· Detroit is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games at home.
· The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.
· Detroit is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games this season.
· Detroit is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference.
Don’t bet this game. I’m picking Detroit because I respect Dan Campbell enough to trust he’ll get the effort that’s been excellent all year, to finally bear fruit.
An unsteady Philly squad—Coach Nick Siriani is starting to feel the heat—could be hanging just low enough to get picked.
We’re calling the Under for this puppy.
Lions 23
Eagles 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Gotta “un-squirrel the nut” that Steelers coach, Mike Tomlin, cracked open with an angry hammer at this week’s presser.
Pittsburgh-Tribune reporter, Tim Benz, asked the question everyone expected a couple days after one-time Bengal QB and former Steelers safety, Ryan Clark linked the most successful coach in today’s NFL—who hasn’t been busted for cheating three times—to lesser coaching vacancies at LSU and USC.
I’ll let Rich Eisen take it from here:
That’s the first time I ever saw a man clench his beard.
Post presser chatter and the typical Stephen A. Smith comments deemed the speculation of Tomlin’s linkage to those jobs as having a racial taint.
My impulse was to start a rant with a “C’MON MAN!!! Can’t it just be insulting to a guy blessed with the job prestige of a N.Y. Yankees manager, or Boston Celtics coach? ”
Then, I stopped myself…You know what? I don ‘t identify as Black—though, if Dennis Hopper’s historical perspective is accurate in True Romance, I definitely have some Brother in my Sicilian blood—I haven’t lived the Black man’s painful history…These guys have:
My only comment would be—guys, you can’t condemn Benz for asking the question. He was the only journalist in the room with the guts to ask a question he knew would elicit an intense response.
It should’ve been the first question….
Game? What game?
Almost spaced it…
It really won’t matter who the Browns QB will be; several reports say Baker Mayfield will start, others say Case Keenum will get the nod. I just read Coach Stefanski has announced Mayfield will be a game time call; another site says both Mayfield and Nick Chubb are slated to start.
I’ll keep checking the reports, but, either way, this is going to be a close field goal game—seasons virtually on the line, rediscovered division rivals, relearning how to be bitter, and the usual trash talk is becoming more…unusual…
Watch for Myles Garrett doing some important Office work at the :47 mark:
If the Steelers can get a better effort from ILB Devin Bush and a depleted D-Line and stop the steam rolling Cleveland running game, they have a shot at winning outright.
It’s a long shot.
The Steelers barely Cover; barely Over the Total…
Cleveland 23
Steelers 20
My picks are below in bold italics…
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) 50.5 GW [U]
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions 48 US [U]
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) 45.5 LW [O]
Teams on bye this week: Ravens, Raiders