NFL WEEK ELEVEN - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK TEN =  9 - 5    2025 OVERALL. =  78 - 72

WEEKLY O/U  =  4 - 3     O/U CUMULATIVE  = 36  - 36  

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  0 - 5   CUMULATIVE  =  23 - 27

GAME OF THE WEEK   5 – 5       LOCK OF THE WEEK    6 – 4

UPSET SPECIAL     4 - 6              O/U OF THE WEEK    5 – 5

STEELERS/OTHER  3 - 7   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  59 - 63

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Your humble handicapper had a 9-5 Week Ten  He should be happy, but the awful stench lingering from a disappointing 0-5 on his Specials and the mediocre 4-3 mark on the Totals was enough make his awful 2025 record even worse.  

The Gairzo’s Premium, (Best Bet), tally has plummeted below .500 for the first time in years.

The only decent news is, nobody at cbssports.com, vsin.com or thesportingnews.com is doing much better.

M results are probably due to parity in the NFL, i.e. the even distribution of talent, and just as importantly, defenses are catching up with offensive innovations introduced in the last decade.

Let’s see if a cursory statistical comparison supports that hypothesis.

So far in 2025, ten teams are holding opponents to less than 310 YPG and less than 5.2. YPP

        <310 YPG.          <5.2 YPP.  

2024 =     2............................4

2023 =     7............................9 

2022 =     3............................8

2021 =     2............................5

2020 =     2............................7

2019 =     5............................8

2018 =     4............................5

2017 =    3..............................11

2016 =    2..............................6

2015 =    2..............................7

In 2025, defenses are trending up, but remember, it's a little dicey trying to gauge how new offensive techniques like the “tush push,” better starting field position caused by the dynamic kickoff, and “points of emphasis” regarding penalties like holding, and OPI impact NFL defensive success.

(I seem to be having internet issues--it’s been raining almost non-stop in Murrieta CA for a few days now, and the clouds interfere with my satellite signal, and, seemingly my internet access.   Strange...

I’ll minimize my analysis for my Premium Picks.)

GAME OF THE WEEK\

Detroit Lions  @  Philadelphia Eagles  -1.5   49.5  GW  [O]

Saquon Barclay can make any rush defense look bad and Jaylen Hurts QBs the world champs.  Of course, the Bald Brds can beat anyone; they’ve earned that respect defeating the Chiefs and history--no three-peat for the Arrowheads--in the most recent Super Bowl. Of course, we know Nick Sirianni is a solid coach and Jeffery Lurie a respected owner.

But...

Statistically, the Lions are the better football team--on 3rd downs they out perform, Philly, on both sides of the scrimmage line.  They run the ball and defend the run better, rush and protect the QB more effectively, and win the turnover battle more consistently--and Jared Goff is completing 73.55% of his passes.

All due respect to the Eagles, we’re comfortable taking the 3 points and the Jungle Kings. 

We’re anticipating a lot of scoring in this baby, and, therefore, recommending the Over.

Lions  33

Eagles  29

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @  Buffalo Bills  -5.5   50.5  LW  [U]

Last week, at home, 2-7 Miami dominated Buffalo.  There’s no other word for it.  The Fish ran the ball down Buffalos gullet; Josh Allen looked very human, and, right now, the AFC East standings look pretty much as they should--Buffalo looks most likely to be a wild card team--if that.  They trail the revived Patriots by a couple of games, while the Dolphins may have saved Mike McDaniel’s job--at least for another week.

Meanwhile, the Matey’s couldn’t fight off New England, in Tampa, and a quick glance at their record reveals four of their six wins were nail-biters against everyone except the Saints.

We don’t give warm weather vs.cold weather the weight most people do, but off the Hard Rock disaster of last week, we have to believe the Bills are hoofin’ the dirt for a shot at redemption.  We think they’ll get it in front of the home crowd, braving rain and snow and 25 MPH winds.

We’re betting the Bills need to make a statement, and that weather will affect scoring--lay the Chalk, and take the Over.

Bills 27

Buccaneers 21

UPSET SPECIAL

Kansas City Chiefs  @  Denver Broncos  +4   44.5  [US]  [U]

We looked hard at this slate and we settled on the Seahawks/Rams match-up based solely on Andy Reid’s exemplary record after a bye--14-4 is hard to wager against, especially after a loss, and with the Arrowheads seemingly just a bit off their game.

Then we looked deeper.  Reid’s boys are a mediocre 8-10, ATS, after a bye .

The division rival Broncos have the exact defense that will make it difficult for K.C. to Cover. 

Both teams know each other intimately, and that relationship doesn’t stem from romantic rendevous in the Rockies.

We’re banking on a low scoring divisional slugfest--The Chiefs may win it; the Denver will Cover, Under the Total.

Chiefs  23  

Broncos  20

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK  

Cincinnati Bengals  @  Pittsburgh Steelers  -5.5   50.5  O/U

Yes, really, we do endeavor to avoid picking the Steelers game as one of our Specials, but 50.5 seems way too high for the Total.  And yes, I am aware there were 64 points scored in their Week Seven meeting

No way Teryl Austin and Mike Tomlin should have any defensive scheme in mind that doesn’t feature one core edict:  DON’T ALLOW JAMAR CHASE TO BEAT US.

A second item in that basket should be to make sure if Steelers pass rushers can’t get to Old Joe Flacco, they need to get their hands up.

Tomlin’s team has been embarrassed in its last three prime time match-ups and one of the main reasons is the defense is old and stale.   

My eyeballs are sick and goddamned tired of watching the poor engagement with receivers at the line, the standing around, the blown assignments, the miscommunication.

How many more times do we have to hear an announcer quote a Steelers opponent saying, “We knew what they were running.”  Or “They don’t ever change.”

Dave Holcomb at heavy.com adds the following:

Over the past decade, Austin has called plays for a defense that finished in the top 12 in yards allowed just once.

Coming into 2025, Austin’s defenses were ranked in the top 10 in points allowed just twice in his past seven seasons as a coordinator. Austin’s Steelers accomplished that feat in 2023 (sixth) and 2024 (eighth).

If Mike Tomlin can’t see the highest paid defense in the league is being laughed at--and fans are starting to lose respect for the head coach, then the man is blind or stupid--and I believe Tomlin is neither.

In fact, I believe he’s one of the best coaches to ever walk an NFL sideline.  I believe he has taken NFL teams that had no business even being in the hunt, to the playoffs.  I believe that, more than any other reason is why he hasn’t won a postr-season game for a decade.

I also believe he is stubborn and doesn’t admit to being wrong.

Art Deuce needs to tell him, in no uncertain terms, something needs to change because the Steeler Way is teetering on extinction.

OH YEAH, THE GAME

If Aaron Rodgers can’t beat this historically awful Bengals defense--yes, it’s worse than Pittsburgh’s--then maybe his ego needs checked more than his coach’s.

If this piss-poor, highly paid Steelers defense can’t beat Joe Flacco and the league’s lousiest rushing game, it deserves all the scorn fans can heap upon it.

And you goddamn better believe we will be a heapni’..

Lay the Points, bet the Under...

Steelers  27

Bengals  21

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)

NFL WEEK 11 ODDS & OVER/UNDERS (POINT TOTALS) 

New York Jets  @  New England Patriots  -13   45.5  [U]

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins  (Madrid) -2  46.5  [U]

Carolina Panthers  @  Atlanta Falcons  -4   42.5 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @  Buffalo Bills  -5.5   50.5  LW  [O]

Los Angeles Chargers  @  Jacksonville Jaguars  +2.5   44.5 

Chicago Bears  @  Minnesota Vikings. -3   45.5 

Green Bay Packers  @  New York Giants  +7  44.5 

Cincinnati Bengals  @  Pittsburgh Steelers  -5.5   50.5  O/U

Houston Texans  @  Tennessee Titans   +6   38.5 

San Francisco 49ers  @  Arizona Cardinals  +2.5   47.5 

Seattle Seahawks  @  Los Angeles Rams  -3.5   48.5 

Baltimore Ravens  @  Cleveland Browns  +8.5   41.5 

Kansas City Chiefs  @  Denver Broncos  +4   44.5  [US]  [U]

Detroit Lions  @  Philadelphia Eagles  -1.5   49.5  GW  [O]

Dallas Cowboys  @  Las Vegas Raiders  +3.5   50  [U]