NFL 2023 - WEEK TWO
Week One spanked your humble procrastinator-er-prognosticator until his ass turned beet red, but the year is young--our hunt for redemption begins...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Ravens @ Bengals (-3, 46.5) GW (O)
The Ravens paid dearly for their 25-9 win over the Texans.
I don’t know if Baltimore’s seemingly annual parade of injuries means their conditioning coach is a slouch, their “system” doesn’t prioritize conditioning, or the Magpies are just dumb unlucky--but it seems every year John Harbaugh has to manage a starting team on IR as much as the team he fields for games.
The Crows misfortunes on the injury front are not limited to players...
The Bengals didn’t play well in Cleveland last week and Joe Burrow had one of his worse games ever. Cincy has too much offensive fire power and is very healthy--the 3 point spread feels low to this handicapper
Yes, I know, Lamar Jackson, like Burrow can put a team on his shoulders and win just about any game he plays.
Not this week...
One of the elite QBs in football should bounce back if Steve Makinen, one of my gurus at VSIN.com, Is right:
Historically though, teams that lose as road favorites in Week 1 bounce back well, and teams playing in back-to-back divisional contests to open a season also play well in that second game.... This particular system shows the potential for a higher scoring outing based upon the Bengals' atrocious effort in Week 1: Week 2 teams that went under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 25-17 Over (59.5%) the total since 2008.
I’m playing the Over...
Bengals 27
Ravens 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5, 41) LW [O]
The 2023 version of the Chicago Bears might look a whole lot better if, before hitting the field, they snorted an 8-ball of cocaine.
Last week Chicago looked listless and uninspired against the Pack, surrendering 38 points--28 in the second half.
Meanwhile the Buccaneers took care of The Vikings in Minnesota 20-17. Baker Mayfield, in his fourth uniform since the Browns picked him first overall in the 2018 draft, started slowly, then proceeded to do all those things that the Cleveland was hoping for--timely runs to move the chains and two late touchdowns to seal the win.
The Norsemen hadn’t lost a one score game since 20201.
The result reminded me why I second guessed my pick in that game the moment it was published. No matter what Cousins does in most games--he threw for 344 last week--it’s never enough. Mayfield always seems to do enough to keep a lesser team in the game.
I think Mayfield and his Mateys do the same thing in this one, and theirs is not the lesser team
For Chicago, Justin Fields can’t do it alone; I can’t name a Bears receiver, can you--and Fields can’t do it only with his dynamic feet. He’s a great runner who takes snaps. If he can’t win games with his arm, it will be a long year in Chicago.
Roll those Benjamins tight...
The Mateys are the more talented team from 1-53, not always a determinative factor, I know.
And though it might be fun to watch, I don’t think Da Bears win this baby if they were to snort a kilo of cocaine.
It’s a Lock for a reason. The Over is our play.
Buccaneers 27
Bears 19
UPSET SPECIAL
Packers @ Falcons (-1.5, 40.5) US [O]
As I said last week, I’m a big fan of Arthur Smith’s Birds of Prey. Second year man, Desmond Ritter, may blossom into a franchise QB as Atlanta’s 2023 season unfolds--but--even getting the Week One “W,” his performance last week belies that promise.
The Packers might make the second year Cincinnati product forget last week’s win in a hurry.
Contrast Ritter’s performance, against a very young Panthers defense, to Green Bay’s Jordan
Young, who looked more than ready to take over for Aaron Rodgers--after sitting on the
Green Bay bench for three years. The Kid threw for 245 and 3 TDs--versus a Chicago defense that was hyped to be vastly improved.
The Packers defense--especially the secondary--might force Ritter into some mistakes, and the talented young Atlanta RB duo who ran for 130 yards against the pillowy Carolina defense will test their skills against an improved Green Bay DL that gave up only 47 rushing yards to Chicago running backs, and “held” Justin Fields to 59.
Green Bay will limp into Mercedes Benz stadium with key injuries to Aaron Jones and the receiving corp--but their defense should make up for it.
We’re taking the Pack and 1.5 points--and the Over.
Packers 23
Falcons 19
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Giants @ Cardinals (+4, 39.5) [O]
A lot of “Cappers” synch up with the Gairzo on the Giants prospects in the world’s biggest toaster in Sunday’s late window. Last week, everything that could go wrong for the G-Men did go wrong; they were embarrassed.
Brian Daboll and his staff are 5-1-1 after a loss. A small sample but I just don’t see an Arizona squad led by rocket scientist and former Steeler, Josh Dobbs, being able to score more than 17 points on what has to be a red-faced Big Blue defense, or stop an angry Giants offense and Saquon Barkley who have playoff sugar plums dancing in their head.
The Giants roll...The Over should be a cakewalk...
Giants 27
Cardinals 17
THE STEELERS
Browns @ Steelers (+2.5, 38.5) [O]
Nothing sickens me more than seeing my Steelers give up chunks of yardage in the run game...
Sometimes I scream at my television.
The football world--the Gairzo included--were touting the Steelers record as home dogs last week. The 49ers tainted that record like urban demons with paint cans on their way to humiliating all of Pittsburgh.
Mike Tomlin has earned more respect than a lot of Steelers Nation gives him. I’ve been his biggest fan since he was hired, but...
ENOUGH!!!
Coach Tomlin better impress upon his men that this is not your run of the steel mill second game of the year. The Black and Gold need to send a message to the NFL. It’s one thing to get kicked in the teeth by a legit Super Bowl favorite, like the Niners--it’s quite another to be a goddamn home dog against a division rival who shouldn’t be favored to beat you.
Ownership and your GM invested heavily in a defense everyone promised would surprise some people--it’s time they played f#%king Steeler football! And if Matt Canada can’t devise a scheme to score MORE THAN SEVEN POINTS, his ass needs to go...
The Steelers--51-40 = .560--after a loss under Tomlin, should handle the Browns who are 25th with a 10-16 record = .385 after a win under Kevin Stefanski. Just one system, I know, but very revealing.
If they don’t, something eventful has to occur...
I’m playing the Over...
Steelers 24
Browns 20
As usual, my picks for this week's gams are in Bold Italic below:
Thursday Sept. 14
Vikings @ Eagles (-6 43)
Sunday, Sept. 17
Packers @ Falcons (-1.5, 40.5) US [O]
Raiders @ Bills (-8.5, 47)
Ravens @ Bengals (-3, 46.5) GW [O]
Seahawks @ Lions (-4.5, 47)
Colts @ Texans (-1, 39.5)
Chiefs @ Jaguars (+3.5, 51)
Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5, 41) LW [O]
Chargers @ Titans (+3, 45)
Giants @ Cardinals (+4, 39.5)
49ers @ Rams (+7.5, 45)
Jets @ Cowboys (-9, 38.5)
Commanders @ Broncos (-3.5, 39)
Dolphins @ Patriots (+3, 46.5) [U]
Monday, Sept. 18
Saints @ Panthers (+3, 39.5) [U]
Browns @ Steelers (+2.5, 38.5) [O]
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