HORSESHOES DON'T NEED LUCK

NFL 2019 TNF WEEK TWELVE

GAIRZO’S TNF RECORD = 3 - 8

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -4 46.5 [U]

This matchup is, again, a typical TNF divisional game that promises to be close, no matter the score. These two teams are evenly matched in talent and statistics. Houston enjoys a .7 YPP advantage on offense –as significant a stat as Indy giving up a half yard YPP less on defense. Both of these division rivals run the ball well and neither stands out on defense.

The Colts injury report might fit into a phone book, and Houston is playing at home, but last weeks loss to the Ravens bothers me—and it feels like it’s a trend with Bill O’Brien’s team: an inexplicably bad loss, albeit against a good team. Too often, in consequential games,Houston folds like a dollar store lawn chair when a fan would expect them to step up and prove they belong—they weren't even competitive against the Magpies.

Right now, the Texans just don't belong.

The Colts have spent the season proving they do; they have been in every game and have overcome the huge loss of Andrew Luck to very early retirement. Many teams would have folded. The Horseshoes have made their own luck; Jacoby Brisset has a solid QB rating of 97.5 with 15 TDs against 4 picks,

Here are some trends from Oddshark.com:

· The Colts are 4-0 SU and ATS over their last 4 AFC South road games.

· The Texans are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games as favorite.

· The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Colts’ last 7 games vs the Texans (avg. combined score: 43.57).

· The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games against Indianapolis.

· The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games at home.

· Houston is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis.

· The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games this season.

· Houston is 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.

· Houston is 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games against an opponent in the AFC South division.

· Indianapolis is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston.

· Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the AFC South division.

Of course, DeShaun Watson has quietly put up great numbers, is in the mix for the MVP award and has been improving for three years now. He can make me regret this pick.

I like Frank Reich; his Horseshoes are disciplined—second to last in penalties per game—their O-Line is better and they believe in Jacoby Brisset. They haven’t looked back for Luck since he retired.

We’re going with Indy and the Under.

Colts 24 Texans 22