HAPPY THANKSGIVING NFL WEEK 13
NFL WEEK THIRTEEN
AFTER WEEK TWELVE
Week Eleven Picks: 7 – 7 2019 Overall Tally: 92– 81 – 3 .531
Weekly Totals Picks: 7 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 38 – 35 – 1 .521
Weekly Specials 2– 2 Cumulative Specials: 23 – 24– 1 .489
GAME OF THE WEEK 5– 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 8 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 6 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 – 7
GAME OF THE WEEK
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -4.5 46 [O]
This is, hopefully only the first game these two squads play. Clearly, they are the two most balanced NFL teams on both sides of the ball, among the most talented—albeit with two very different quarterbacks.
From what I’ve seen of SF’s Jimmy Garapolo, he’s got a great arm, can throw his receivers open and protects the football. Every sign says he will flourish under Kyle Shanahan.
Lamar Jackson, appears to be the most lethal human assemblage of talent at the quarterback position in the history of the game—then again, you can say that about KC’s Patkick Mahomes, but Jackson is quicker, looks faster and can make throws from every angle.
The Niners are a solid top ten offensive team; Baltimore is top two in nearly every important metric.
The Prospectors get the nod in nearly every defensive category—but they’ve yet to play anyone like Jackson, unless you count Arizona’s Kyler Murray.
I usually tap through the statistical comparison to research my Weekly Specials; these two Teams are close on nearly every level.
Lamar Jackson is the more complete QB; he can bomb you with his arm and embarrass you with his legs. My only concern with Jackson, like Mahomes, is what happens after he takes that first devastating hit. I hope we never find out. Too bad I am spiritually forbidden to root for the Magpies unless they’re playing the Cheaters or Cowboys.
When it comes to coaching, I’ll never forgive Shanahan for his contribution to the 28-3 Super Bowl collapse against NE.
On the other hand John Harbaugh has one of the most punchable faces in America—but, his teams always play hard and mean, and for that, he gets my respect.
This game is huge, but won’t count near as much as when they next meet in February—we’re laying the points, and betting the Over.
Ravens 31 Niners 26
LOCK OF THE WEEK
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS +3 44.5 [U]
Looking very un-Patriot like in a 13-9 yawner victory against Dallas in windy, rainy, Foxboro, Tom Brady looked downright dejected after the “W”
Compared to Jerry Jones, Brady was ecstatic.
Of course, I was in my glory with Brady pouting like a 15 year-old , and Jones throwing Jason Garret under an 18-wheeler. Jones has no shame and the self awareness of Hoffman's "Rain Man." I wonder what it would take to piss off Garrett enough to bash Ol' Jerrah in his chops.
Meanwhile, in Houston, DeShaun Watson and his coach, Bill O’Brien were basking in a hard fought 20-17 win over the Colts, trying to figure out how they were going to win their next game against the Pats who will come into NRG Stadium number one or two in almost every defensive category you can think of. A few examples…
· New England yields a league low 10.6 PPG – Houston 22.6
· New England opponents convert only 18.94% time on 3rd down, best in the league
Houston’s opponents, 47.13%, 31st in the NFL...
· Patriot’s opponents Red Zone TD Scoring% - 40% , 1st in the NFL- Texans 65.62, dead last.
Bill Belichick has to game plan some confidence back into Brady and find a way generate more than 224 PYPG—Brady’s average in his last three games.
Belichick loves--if the Dark Lord is capable of love-- Stephon Gilmore who will shadow Houston WR, DeAndre Hopkins. Last week, Dallas’ Amari Cooper didn’t catch a ball. Maybe that’s why NE is giving up a seriously sick 159 YPG through the air.
When the Pats are playing like a barely above average team, Brady is looking over his shoulder at Father Time and with Belichick, silently pondering life without Brady, NE will hit the field with a mandate to humiliate their opponent.
It says here, that’s exactly what kind of game you’ll see.
Patriots 33 Texans 11
O/U OF THE WEEK
CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS -3 39 [U]
The perfect game for the daredevils who want to nap before they eat turkey.
The Bears were dying to give last week’s game away to the New York football Giants and Big Blue would have nothing of it. Chicago won straight up, prolonging the Mitchell Trubisky experiment for, at least, another week
The Bears average 269.3 YPG and 17 PPG folks. They have a good defense; top five, surrendering 316 YPG-it might as well be 800 yards. The offense is lifeless under Trubisky and the Lions aren’t any more exciting.
Detroit played a Dwayne Haskin’s led Native Americans team and overtime was looming . Jeff Driskel, replacing the injured Matthew Stafford for the Big Cats, decided to lose it all and threw a pick with 17 seconds left in the game. The Nates kicked a walk-off field goal to slog onto a 19-16 win.
These are the exact circumstances that make this game our Totals Special.
We’ll take the home dog Lions to Cover
Lions 20 Bears 15
TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS S -3 43 [U]
This contest features two division rivals that are each other’s mirror images. Both run the ball, can, at times, play stout defense, and their quarterbacks are still trying to hit their stride and propel their teams to a playoff berth.
Head coaches, Frank Reich for Indy and Mike Vrabel for Tennessee are similar in their no nonsense, straightforward approach to the game. Reich has rejuvenated the Colts offense and Vrabel has toughened up the Titans defense along with former Baltimore DC, Dean Pees,
Division foe, Houston hosts New England on SNF—the Pats usually dominate the Texans—the winner of this one may vault into first place before the weekend is up.
We love Indy, they’ve been focused even after losing key players like WR, Devin Funchess, and TE Eric Ebron. Recently, Marlon Mack a surprisingly productive and reliable RB busted his hand. CB, Rock Ya-Sin sprained an ankle, and TY Hilton’s absence due to a calf strain has left the Colts wanting on both sides of the ball
Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill has been careful with the ball, and if Titan RB, Derek Henry can repeat his last performance from last week, the Titans, should Cover the Chalk if not win outright—the Under is a Premium play here.
Titans 21 Colts 20
NFL Lines For Week 13 - 11/28 - 12/2, 2019
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
11/28 12:30 ET Chicago O/U -3 [U] At Detroit 39
11/28 12:30 ET At Dallas -6.5 [U] Buffalo 45
11/28 8:20 ET New Orleans - 6.5 [U] At Atlanta 49.5
12/1 1:00 ET Green Bay -7.5 At NY Giants 46.5
12/1 1:00 ET At Carolina -10 Washington 41
12/1 1:00 ET At Baltimore GW -4.5 [O] San Francisco 46
12/1 1:00 ET At Indy US -3 [U] Tennessee 43
12/1 1:00 ET Philadelphia -7.5 At Miami 46
12/1 4:25 ET At Kansas City -10 Oakland 54.5
12/1 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -1.5 Tampa Bay 49
12/1 1:00 ET NY Jets -3.5 At Cincinnati 39
12/1 4:05 ET LA Rams -4 At Arizona 46.5
12/1 4:25 ET LA Chargers -1 At Denver 38.5
12/1 4:25 ET Cleveland -1 At Pittsburgh 40
12/1 8:20 ET New England LW -3.5 [U] At Houston 44.5
Monday Night Football Line
12/2 8:15 ET At Seattle -3 Minnesota 49