AFTER WEEK FOUR
Week Three Picks: 4 – 11 2019 Overall Tally: 29 – 32 – 2
Weekly Totals Picks: 2 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 11 - 13
Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 8 – 7 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 1 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 2 – 2
My ass is still beet red from the spanking of a 4-11 week. All I can tell you is I had two such weeks last year and climbed out of the hole—so laugh while you can, it won’t last long…
Let’s get to our picks…
GAME OF THE WEEK
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3.5 44.5 [U]
People started loving the Magpies when they filleted the Dolphins in Week one. Some clueless pundits even portended a return of the Crow-Magnum defense—but this version of Charm City defense earns no more than Crow-Munchkin from the Gairzo.
Never mind this Steeler fanatic hates the Ravens even more than he hates pretentious bloggers who refer to themselves in the third person made worse with a preceding capitalized “The”…
Ahem…Let’s continue…
I’m picking Baltimore despite this trio of trends:
· Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games vs divisional opponents.
· Pittsburgh is 15-1-1 SU in its last 17 games vs divisional opponents.
· The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh’s last 17 games at home.
These gems cancel them out:
· Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
· Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
· Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
· The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Thing is, Lamar Jackson finds different ways to win—with his legs, arm, and intelligent decisions. Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph has shown promise and the coaches drew up one of the more brilliant QB specific game plans last week against Cincy. The defense was dominant, but the Bengals are hurting, with a rookie coach and young O-line—and Pittsburgh was desperate.
But the Steelers defense has yet to prove—going on 8-9 years now—that they are anything to brag about. That is what Steelers fans demand, and nothing is more disappointing to this Steeler Die-Hard than watching a buttery soft Pittsburgh run defense.
HC, Mike Tomlin, has made it known he is implementing his defense. Since that fact was reported in the Pittsburgh media some three years ago, Tomlin’s defenses have had repeated “communication” issues, sketchy gap discipline, too often shoddy tackling, and too many busts in secondary coverage.
Until Mason Rudolph shows the NFL he can beat good teams sans the cute little “tap” passes; until the defense shows some self-respect and shuts down a quality offense like, the Magpies, the league, Vegas, and this handicapper won’t take them seriously.
Let’s make matters worse and assume the Men of Steel run over the porous Ravens defense, and Rudolph outduels L.J., Steelers fans have to hope and pray Tomlin’s team can make one—ONE Special Teams play!
Ravens fans have faith their Special Tams play will make a difference every game.
I would love to be wrong…
Ravens 24 Steelers 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CHICAGO BEARS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS -5 40.5 [U]
Pretty simple call on this one.
The favored Bears, and their elite defense should handle a weak Oakland offense and a head coach who admits to a month of vertigo when he has to spend more than five hours on a plane.
Now you know why John Gruden makes those faces.
Consider also, Da Raidas are in the third week of a five game road trip. They really aren’t playing at home even when they’re on their home dirt track in Oakland.
Luckily, they are the home team for this game—in London!!!
Then there is former Raider, Khalil Mack—John Gruden lanced him from the Vandals roster like a wart from a witch’s nose by trading him to Chicago-- Mack has four forced fumbles…
Oakland has three…
Mack has 4.5 sacks…
Oakland has five….
Rumors are old KM didn’t appreciate being cast-off by Gruden. He gets revenge this week.
The Bears win big against an exhausted, jet-lagged Oakland team—Under the Total.
Bears 27 Raiders 13
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
ATLANTA FALCONS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -5 48.5 [U]
The Sharks insist the Over is going to come back before the year is out—I hope they’re wrong until next week.
We love Bill O’Brien as a head coach. The guy—he proved it at Penn State after the Sandusky scandal—knows how to weather a storm.
Last couple years, with the jury still deliberating on DeShaun Watson, and three-time DPOY J.J. Watt fighting an ACL rehab, the Shit Kickers made the playoffs when they really shouldn’t have.
When you look at the Efficiency Stats in games involving the Falcons, it’s a compelling numbers matrix that says Atlanta should be a much better team than their 1-3 record says they are. They beat Philly, but lost convincingly to Tennessee and the Vikes.
Meanwhile, 2-2 Houston lost two nail biters to Carolina and the Saints—with Drew Brees.
Those hard to explain differences, in my world, come down to coaching. Falcons HC, Dan Quinn’s seat burns hottest in the scorched earth NFL environment; it won’t get any cooler after this game.
A major problem: Atlanta’s “Triplets” –Julio, Matt Ryan, and Devonta Freeman—are the only quality players on the offensive side of the ball. The O-line is mediocre averaging 4.0 YPR and they don’t protect Ryan consistently.
T.J Watt and Winston Mercillus should have a field day tormenting Matty Ice. Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will out-duel Ryan and Jones.
The Under is a premium play here.
Texans 27 Falcons 20
UPSET SPECIAL
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5 50.5 [O]
Again, it’s the coaching. Like Sean Payton in the Bayou, Bruce Arians has been a difference maker for the Bucs—particularly for Jamius Winston. All of a sudden, the Florida State product many Bucs fans were labeling “bust” puts up a 55 impossible burger on the reigning NFC champion Rams—in Los Angeles.
Winston, good for at least one bonehead throw per game, has earned his best ever QB Rating and YPG in the still young 2019 campaign. He is getting three deep in his progressions, throwing receivers open, and becoming yet another member of the “Bruce Arians is a QB guru” club.
Okay, okay, he chucked a pick-six late last week against the Big Horns, but that bone head play illustrated another truth about an Arians coached squad—he surrounds his QBs with the talent to overcome adversity and his teams with resiliency—and toughness Two years ago that same wayward throw could have led to a loss in the Rams game and might have snow-balled into a downward spiral of losing.
Sean Payton, same kind of guy, same kind of team, same kind of results. Drew Brees rips his thumb, Teddy Bridgewater fills in playing smart, efficient football—and like the Bucs, New Orleans’ defense improves every week.
My readers know, last year, I rode the streetcar named Brees all the way to the NFCCG rip-off.
Normally, I wouldn’t pick a road dog for an Upset after a trip to the West Coast, but New Orleans is a stone’s throw from Tampa and I will ride the BA special until the coach’s wheels fall off. His track record with talented QBs is second to none.
We’ll go with the Mateys to win a squeaker outright Over the Number
Buccaneers 27 Saints 26
NFL Lines For Week 5 - NFL 10/3 - 10/7, 2019
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/3 8:20 ET At Seattle -1.5 [U] LA Rams 49 [U]
10/6 1:00 ET Baltimore GW -3.5 [O] At Pittsburgh 44.5 10/6 1:00 ET Chicago LW -5 [U] Oakland
(At London) 40.5
10/6 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -3.5 Arizona 47.5
10/6 1:00 ET At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville 41
10/6 1:00 ET Minnesota -5.5 At NY Giants 44.5
10/6 1:00 ET New England -15.5 At Washington 43
10/6 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -13.5 NY Jets 44
10/6 1:00 ET At New Orleans US -3.5 [O] Tampa Bay 47
10/6 1:00 ET At Houston O/U -5 Atlanta 48.5
10/6 1:00 ET At Tennessee -3 Buffalo 38.5
10/6 4:05 ET At LA Chargers -6.5 Denver 44.5
10/6 4:25 ET At Dallas -3.5 Green Bay 47
10/6 8:20 ET At Kansas City [U] -10.5 Indianapolis 56.5
Monday Night Football Line
10/7 8:15 ET At San Francisco -3.5 [U] Cleveland 46.5
Week 5 Byes: Detroit, Miami