Buffalo Bills 12-6 @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-5) (-2, 55) LW [O]
Well, you live and learn in any endeavor—but the first thing a Handicapper who earns a living plying the trade, will tell you is:
Follow your instincts, and don’t fall into the trap of overthinking when you’ve made your picks…
Last Monday I wanted to get in on the early lines and I put the four Divisional matchups in my signature bold format and after reading the initial spread I italicized all four visiting teams.
Green Bay was the only NFC team who played a strong schedule, was 8-0 at home, and the infamous tundra was going to be fairly close to frozen. That was the only game we had real doubts about
Josh Allen destroyed a decent Pats defense and Steve Spagnulo’s much-improved defense and Andy Reid’s high-octane offense crushed a Steelers team that didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs. The reason our instinct whispered Buffalo over KC, was because the Bills defense is #1 in:
· Yards Per play surrendered
· Passing Yards
· Total Yards
· Scoring—and 10th in Rushing YPG
The Arrowheads defense, despite their improvement in the last half of the year, ranks barely above mediocre. Finally in the crucial YPP differential—Yards Per Play on offense minus YPP yielded on defense—
· Kansas City is 6.0 (1st) – 5.8 (28th) = .2
· Buffalo… 5.8 (8th) – 4.6 = 1.2
I knew that pick wasn’t going to change—and it won’t now—and with the weather in the 40s with winds under 10MPH, we’re making it our Lock of the Week---and we’re just as confident betting the Over…
Bills 33
Chiefs 30
Los Angeles Rams 13-5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-4 (-5, 49) [O]
…Continuing my betting saga starting early this week…So I begin researching the Cincy vs. Tennessee game. Based on Burrows 14 picks and the likelihood the Titans would take Jamaar Chase out of the game, along with the huge warts on the Bengals offensive line, doubt crept into me like a Transylvanian fog.
I dug a little deeper and saw Ryan Tannehill’s excellent game management in his three playoff games and convinced myself the pick had to be changed.
So I broke Handicappers commandment of:
· Follow your instincts… and…
· …Don’t over think it or overthink you research once you make your pick…
Although being 5-3 at this point in the playoff proceedings is not bad—being 6-2 virtually insures we have a much better chance to finish with a respectable playoff record and would put us above the 52.5% mark in our Overall Tally.
What pours vinegar into that self-inflicted wound is this not so fun f#&king fact: I forgot I had several meetings on my plate for the week and had already bet the Bengals to win!!!!!
The third Handicappers’ Commandment is, If there is an honest mistake made regarding any pick wagered or offered to readers as a wager, tough luck, you must count the error as a loss…
Back To The Sunday Nighter
Betting against Tom Brady won’t fill anyone’s pockets—even with a career pockmarked by cheating, the guy is pretty damn good. It only becomes a little less risky when you realize how banged up the stars on offense are—RBs Leonard Fourtnette and Ronald Jones, virtually the entire WR corps, except Mike Evans.
I’ll go with Aaron Donald and a Rams front four that can apply pressure up the middle. That was their strategy in a 34-24, Week Three win over the Mateys when Brady had all the arrows in his offensive quiver.
We’ll take the points and the Over…
Rams 32
Buccaneers 27