- Gary Porpora
2022 TNF WEEK FIVE
TNF 2022 WEEK FIVE
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
This match-up is a prime example of our “adjustment theory:” teams with new coordinators, head coaches, or QBs usually need 2-6 weeks of an adjustment period before they jell, or begin to play as a cohesive units.
Our rationale isn’t complicated; football is the ultimate team sport. Take a quick gander at NFL power rankings; teams at the bottom---Pittsburgh, Seattle; the Commanders, Bears and Texans—have OL and/or QB issues and are dealing with new coaches, coordinators, or quarterbacks.
Indy and Denver are waste deep in the same NFL quagmire. Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson are established NFL veterans who can legitimately ring the HOF doorbell. Yet their only victories have come at home and inconsistency has defined their in game performances.
The Baby Horses were goose egged by Jacksonville—yet won against the more talented Chiefs. Denver squeaked by the Shit Kickers and 49ers; losing to Division rival Vegas last week, and the struggling Seahawks in Week One.
Matchup Stats reflect Denver is the much better team defensively. On offense, the most Bronco fans can say is they aren’t as bad as Indy…
Here are some significant trends:
The UNDER is 9-0 in Indianapolis’ last 9 games.
Denver is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 as a home favorite.
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 as an underdog. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 game
Intraconference (non-divisional) games have gone the way of hosts recently, 10-2 SU and 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in the L12.
Home teams coming off games in which they scored fewer than 17 points bounce back well, going 14-8 SU and 16-5-1 ATS (76.2%) in their L22
They’ve also gone under the total in 14 of their L20 games.
Road teams coming off poor offensive performances in which they scored 16 points or fewer are on a 2-12 SU and 2-10-2 ATS (16.7%) slide.
Since 2017, the Colts rank 6th winning 60.5% of their games after a loss….Denver 22nd
Since 2017, Denver is only 6-12-2 as a Home Fave--.33%...The Colts are16-12-2—57% as Road Dogs
Strangely, Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent games are on a 16-8 SU and 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) surge, as the change in routine seems to change the teams’ fortunes as well.
So let’s try to distill all the trends and stats.
Denver is better on defense than Indy—and the Colts stud LB, Shaq Leonard won’t be playing; Deforest Buckner and Tyquan Lewis won’t dress either. On offense, Jonathan Taylor is out.
Randy Gregory and Javonte William are out for Denver. Russell Wilson’s shoulder is an ongoing problem
Basically, this should be a pick’em game…We’ll lay the three and take Denver to win by eight---Under the Number…