2020 WEEK ONE SUNDAY
NFL 2020 WEEK ONE
SPORTS IS THE NEO-SPORIN FOR AMERICA’S GAPING WOUNDS
Before we address the gauntlet of American suffering—Covid, red-necks, Trumps corruption, wobbly institutions, the sports shutdowns, raging wild-fires—lets get to the important stuff: Gairzo’s 2019 stats picking against the spread…
2019 NFL FINAL TALLY SHEET
Super Bowl Pick: 1 – 0 Playoffs Overall Tally: 5 – 5 – 1 .500
2019 Overall Tally: 142 – 118 – 7 .546
Super Bowl Totals Picks: 0 – 1 Playoffs Overall Totals: 4 – 7
Cumulative Totals: 54 – 58 – 1 .482
Weekly Specials 1 – 1 – Cumulative Specials: 36 – 37 – 2 .493
GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 12 LOCK OF THE WEEK 12 – 7
UPSET SPECIAL 10– 7 – 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 11
We ended up with 75.00 more in our account after a big Super Bowl Bet, and the good luck to hit on a couple of three-play Parlays that made up for some bad betting on our Totals and Specials. We did learn a lot last year and will make better game choices as we move forward.
If you want professional gambling advice, go elsewhere. Very few guys have the luck guts, or money to earn a living against Vegas---and after watching Howard Ratner take one between the eyes in Uncut Gems, I’m not even gonna dream I possess any of those traits.
This year we’ll again begin with a 500.00 stake, sticking with our four Weekly Specials—O/U Special, Game, and Lock of the Week, along with the Upset Special. We’ll continue calling the Totals for those games as well as every night/ or Saturday affair.
Given Covid’s affect and it’s potential to disrupt or end the season, home teams, teams with stability in coaching and at quarterback have to be given a bigger than usual edge.
Also offensive cohesion could be a factor in the first month of the season, and turn the tables on what should be safe bets.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys @ L.A. Rams -3 49.5 [U]
Since 1995, the Dallas Cowboys the perennially overhyped, glitziest, most successful failures in sport have averaged one playoff win every five years—nine less wins than division rival Philadelphia, half as many as the Giants—and only three more than Washington—one of the NFL’s worst teams.
The most Cowboys and their fans can say is Dallas the third best team in the NFC East division in the last 25 years…
Here’s a list of teams with superior playoff success than America’s Team in the last 25 years:
TEAM PLAYOFF VICTORIES SINCE 1996
TB 5 – SB
Ladies and gentlemen your Dallas Cowboys, by just about every important metric are on the south side of mediocre when compared to the 32 team NFL.
The ‘Boys ride into the newest stadium that rivals theirs in bells, whistles and wow factors. Mike McCarthy will be the yet another coach Jerry Jones drives nuts. His offensive line is older, and more fragile; his defense has questions on the line and with overall consistency.
In short Dallas is overrated.
Sean McVay will make up for the offensive losses in personnel and Aaron Donald will torture Prescott all night. The Cowboys slammed the Big Horns in Dallas when it meant a lot last year.
In his brand new stadium, McVay will have his boys ready.
Rams 26 Cowboys 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots -6 44 [U]
Yes, Cam Newton replaces Tom Brady,--and the spell of Darth Belichick is broken!!! The Cheatingest coach in history will shred his stolen signal files and all of a sudden turn into a moron—and a loser…
Ryan Fitzpatrick will get injured and Tua Tagovailoa will come off the bench and plow through New England’s defense…
In New England…
On opening day…
Belichick, cheating aside, has been winning with a 40 year-old quarterback who runs a 45 forty. (Note the absence of the decimal point.)
Cam Newton will make everyone wonder what all the handwringing has been about. I can’t wait to see the plays Newton will RUN. He’s one of those guys who gets better with confidence—and Belichick sweet-talking him through the tulips will prove the point.
Miami has to get rid of Fitzpatrick before they can find out who they are-they aren’t going to do it this weekend.
This is the easiest call on the board…
Patriots 30 Dolphins 10
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants -3 48 [U]
…And this should be the second easiest call on the board…
At best, the New York Football Giants might surprise a division rival later in the year, this week they look to be a young football team with a bad offensive line and a defense that won’t conjure up any images of Lawrence Taylor, JPP, or Michael Strahan.
The G- Men do have Saquon Barkley but he spent too much of last year trying to run through tiny holes, making miracles happen in the screen game, and ended up frustrated and injured for his trouble.
Safe bet, the Steelers will key on Barkley and make Daniel Jones, who does have some weapons, beat them. He has to remember not to fumble; the Pittsburgh defense will be turnover hungry as they were last year--but a great defense can't rely on turnovers.
Catch is, no team without OTAs and preseason reps is going to look that sharp during the first four games. Football never changes; the team that minimizes mistakes usually wins.
Without normal practice routines, it could be difficult for any team during the first four weekends.
Mike Tomlin will run James Connor to the bone, Big Ben needs to show himself he is still a prime timer, and the Steelers need to prove to their fans they are ready to contend.
Against these Giants, those goals should be well within reach.
Steelers 30 Giants 13
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5 45 [U]
The NFL should have switched this divisional game with the teams’ Week 16 meeting in Arizona. I’m wondering how intensely the Niners were able to practice with the wild fires thickening the air with ash and trash.
The Cards come in and will have to deal with it for three-hours, they might leave San Fran players gasping for air late in the proceedings.
The Red Birds lost 10 games last year—but only four by more than ten points. Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray are turning up the heat in the Big Toaster and are glad everyone is forgetting the offense might not be the best unit in Phoenix—even if DeAndre Hopkins and Kenyan Drake disagree.
Dre Kirkpatrick and Patrick Petersen along with Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson can be as good a secondary there is in the NFL—they were a bad unit last year—and Chandler Jones and friends will get to the passer.
It is notoriously tough for a team to come back from a close Super Bowl loss. Jimmy G. needs to put his big boy pants on and become elite, but don’t be surprised if the Cardinals keep this one very close.
49ers 20 Cardinals 19
As always, my picks are in bold italics below…
Match-up Spread Total
Houston@ K.C. (Thur) Chiefs -10.5 [U] 56.5
Miami @ New England Patriots -6 LW [O] 44
Cleveland @ Baltimore Ravens -8 49
NY Jets @ Buffalo Bills -5.5 40.5
Las Vegas @ Carolina Panthers -1 46.5
Seattle @ Atlanta Seahawks -1 48.5
Philadelphia@ Washington Eagles -6 44
Chicago @ Detroit Lions -1 -46.5
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville Colts -7.5 46.5
Green Bay @ Minnesota Vikings -3.5 47
LA Chargers @ Cincinnati Chargers -4 46
Arizona @ San Francisco 49ers -7.5 US [U] 45
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans Saints -4.5 49.5
Dallas @ LA Rams Cowboys -3 GW [U] 49.5
Pittsburgh @ NY Giants (Mon) Steelers -3 O/U 48
Tennessee @ Denver (Mon) Broncos -3 41.5